Δυστυχώς η παρουσία μιας οικονομικής ορθοδοξίας που προέρχεται από δημοσιογράφους, αρθρογράφους και πολιτικούς, όπως άλλωστε και όλων των ειδών οι ορθοδοξίες, δεν προωθούν ούτε την ίδια την οικονομία, ούτε την ίδια την πολιτική- αφού αναπαράγονται επιχειρήματα τα οποία, ούτε διαφωτίζουν, ούτε μας αποδεικνύουν το ποιο θα πρέπει να είναι το κοινωνικά βέλτιστο.

Η Θεωρία Παιγνίων και η Βιομηχανική Οργάνωση, ως κομμάτι των Οικονομικών πολλές φορές ορίζουν το κοινωνικό βέλτιστο σημείο, ως τέτοιο που ορίζεται από έναν benevolent κοινωνικό ρυθμιστή. Αυτός θα πρέπει να είναι και ο ρόλος της πολιτικής, αν και όχι ο μόνος.

Ένα πολύ γνωστό παράδειγμα είναι και η «συμπεριφορά αναζήτησης μισθώματος» (από εδώ και στο εξής rent-seeking behavior, RSB). Η τιμολόγηση μέσω των μονοπωλιακών καθεστώτων μειώνει το πλεόνασμα καταναλωτή και αυξάνει τα κέρδη εν συγκρίσει με την συμπεριφορά σε πλαίσια ανταγωνισμού. Η μείωση στο πλεόνασμα υπερβαίνει την αύξηση στα κέρδη κατά ένα ποσό ίσο με τις αντισταθμιζόμενες απώλειες.

Εικόνα 1 Tirole Industrial Organizations, 1988 σελίδα 65 (είδη ανταγωνισμού και κέρδη)

Επιπλέον σε μια μονοπωλιακή θέση ενδέχεται να δημιουργεί πληθωρισμό κόστους. Η τρίτη παρεμβολή που συνδέεται με ένα μονοπώλιο, είναι η σπατάλη των πόρων που λαμβάνει χώρα προκειμένου να διασφαλιστεί ή να διατηρηθεί μια μονοπωλιακή θέση.

Φανταστείτε το ενοίκιο που σχετίζεται με την μονοπωλιακή τιμολόγηση. Αν αφαιρέσουμε την περίπτωση όπου λόγω της τεχνολογικής εξέλιξης και των πνευματικών δικαιωμάτων, όπου το κόστος είναι συναρτήσει και άλλων παραγόντων, κάποιος μπορεί πολύ εύκολα να δει ότι το ενοίκιο (στο RSB) είναι ίσο με το μονοπωλιακό κέρδος που αναπαρίσταται ανωτέρω στο τραπέζιο CEFAC. Είναι πασίδηλο ότι η ύπαρξη ενός τέτοιου μισθώματος μπορεί να οδηγήσει σε συμπεριφορά αναζήτησης ενοικίου (RSB). Οι επιχειρήσεις θα τείνουν να ξοδεύουν περισσότερα χρήματα και να ασκούν εξαιρετικές προσπάθειες για να αποκτήσουν αυτή την μονοπωλιακή θέση, και μόλις την αποκτήσουν θα συνεχίσουν να ξοδεύουν χρήματα και να ασκούν πίεση για να την διατηρήσουν. Το ίδιο δεν κάνουν και όλοι αυτοί οι εργαζόμενοι, στα «κλειστά επαγγέλματα»; Το νταλαβέρι μεταξύ κράτους και εργαζομένων σε «κλειστά επαγγέλματα», με την μη- φορολόγησή τους, ήταν ένα έγκλημα, με δύο συνεργούς και θύμα την ίδια την ελληνική κοινωνία και την συνοχή της. Όσο γρηγορότερα το καταλάβουμε, τόσο το καλύτερο για εμάς.

Ο Michael Posner (1975) αναλύει μια ακραία περίπτωση RSB σε μια διαμάχη ανάμεσα σε εταιρείες που προσπαθούν να γίνουν μονοπώλιο και οδηγείται στο συμπέρασμα ότι όλα τα μονοπωλιακά μισθώματα θα πρέπει να υπολογισθούν στα κόστη του μονοπωλίου. Με άλλα λόγια σαν να υπολογίζουμε όλα τα κόστη για τις άδειες ταξί πχ για να ορίσουμε το κόστος του συγκεκριμένου μονοπωλίου στην Ελλάδα, θα πρέπει να υπολογίσουμε το άθροισμα όλων των αδειών ταξί ανά την επικράτεια. (πολλά λεφτά…). Το πραγματικό αντιστάθμισμα απώλειας παρουσιάζεται από το σχεδιάγραμμα ανωτέρω από το σχήμα CEGFAC. Τα δύο κύρια αξιώματα που προκύπτουν είναι τα ακόλουθα:

1. Rent dissipation, το συνολικό έξοδο από όλες τις εταιρείες για να αποκτήσουν το ενοίκιο είναι ισοδύναμο με το ποσό του ενοικίου (άθροισμα ενοικίων= συνολικό κόστους)

2. Socially wasteful dissipation, το έξοδο αυτό δεν έχει/ δεν παράγει υποπροϊόντα ωφέλημα για την κοινωνία.

Αν αυτά τα χρήματα, όλα όσα δόθηκαν για άδειες τέτοιου τύπου, ταξί, λεωφορεία, φαρμακοποιοί, συμβολαιογράφοι, φούρνοι κτλ, τα οποία σε μεγάλο ποσοστό αποτελούν δάνεια από τράπεζες, δηλαδή αποταμιεύσεις άλλων ανθρώπων, που σήμερα μειώνονται οι μισθοί τους, επειδή οι κοινωνικοί ρυθμιστές, κοιτούσαν το να επανεκλεγούν και όχι να δημιουργήσουν μια κοινωνία βέλτιστη για τους κατοίκους της. ( Ή ακόμα χειρότερα τα έδωσαν τράπεζες που σήμερα κυνηγούν την κρατική επιχορήγηση για να μην κλείσουν.) Τότε θα μπορούσαμε να δούμε μια κοινωνία που επενδύει σε υποδομές και σε γνώσεις και που δεν περιμένει να της δοθούν χρήματα για να πληρώνει συντάξεις (άλλωστε οι συντάξεις είναι μεταβιβαστικές πληρωμές, χρήματα που έχουν ήδη πληρωθεί, οι κατά καιρούς Διοικητές των ταμείων πρέπει πρώτοι να δεχτούν εις τας κάρας αυτών τσεκούρια. Επίσης, με τους φόρους δεν γίνεται ποτέ να αρχίσουμε να έχουμε πλεονασματικούς προϋπολογισμούς και να αρχίσουμε να πληρώνουμε χρέος. Ο φόρος έχει την έννοια της ανταποδοτικότητας. Πληρώνω φόρους στο χωριό μου, και μου βάζουν μια λάμπα έξω από το σπίτι. Ξαναπληρώνω φόρους και βλέπω το παιδί μου που πηγαίνει με ασφάλεια στο σχολείο. Αυτό είναι το κίνητρο, η ανταποδοτικότητα.

Δυστυχώς οι εποχές μας είναι το τρανότερο παράδειγμα, ότι και η πολιτική (με την ελληνική έννοια) και η οικονομία (με την ελληνική έννοια –δημοσιογράφοι, πολιτικοί, οικονομολόγοι του γλυκού νερού) έχουν έρθει σε ένα τέλμα, είτε από ημιμάθεια, είτε από συμφέροντα πολιτικά. Όταν οι νόμοι εφαρμόζονται δίκαια πάνω και στους ντόπιους και στους ξένους, χωρίς να παραβιάζεται ποτέ το δίκαιο, τότε και η πολιτεία ευημερεί και οι πολίτες μέσα σ’ αυτή ευτυχούν Ησίοδος

Απάντηση στο άρθρο του Capital Να μην επιτραπεί στους μετανάστες να ψηφίζουν 12/08/2010

συγχαρητήρια Γραικοί και Γραικύλοι! Γεια σου μάνα μου Ελλάς είμαι κλεφτοφουκαράς!

Δημοκρατία των ελληνοπαίδων, των μαυρογυαλούρων και τον τσιφλικάδων -όπου βλέπεις βουλευτής, βάλε παπαδαριό επί Τουρκοκρατίας-

Ζήτω η βλαχομπόγδανία!

-σύμφωνα με την αρχαία αθηναϊκή δημοκρατία και τον όρκο που έδιναν οι νέοι, "ουκ ελάττω παραδότω...", όλοι αυτοί που τρώνε και κόβονται και πέρδονται για το μεγαλείο της Αρχαίας Ελλάδας βουλευτάδες και χαρτογιακάδες, θα βρίσκονταν μακριά από την πατρώα γη, εξόριστοι δίχως πολιτικά δικαιώματα, μπορεί και σφαγμένοι...-

Με σεβασμό και εκτίμηση ως προς τους τίμιους φιλο- αναγνώστες

*ιδέ Ραμού- Χαψιάδου "Από την Φυλετική Κοινωνία στην Πολιτική" (ουδέποτε πραγματοποιήθηκε τέτοιο πέρασμα στην χώρα μας, γι' αυτό και δεν μπορούμε να ομιλούμε πολιτικά)

TRAMO ANALYSIS ΟΝ GREEK UNEMPLOYMENT.....

SIGNAL EXTRACTION IN 'ARIMA' TIME SERIES (BETA VERSION) (*)

BY

V. GOMEZ & A. MARAVALL,

with the programming assistance of G. CAPORELLO

Thanks are due to G. FIORENTINI and C. PLANAS for their research assistance

(Based on an original program developed by J.P.BURMAN at the Bank of England, version 1982)

(*) Copyright : V. GOMEZ, A. MARAVALL (1994,1996)

FIRST PART:

ARIMA ESTIMATION

SERIES TITLE: un_gr

PREADJUSTED WITH TRAMO : YES

METHOD: MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD

NO OF OBSERVATIONS =138

ORIGINAL UNCORRECTED SERIES (from TRAMO)

YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

1998 11.000 11.000 11.000 11.100 11.100 11.100 11.200 11.200 11.200

1999 11.400 11.400 11.400 12.000 12.000 12.000 12.100 12.100 12.100 12.400 12.400 12.400

2000 11.600 11.600 11.600 11.400 11.400 11.400 11.200 11.200 11.200 10.700 10.700 10.700

2001 10.500 10.500 10.500 10.600 10.600 10.600 10.500 10.500 10.500 11.000 11.000 11.000

2002 10.800 10.800 10.800 10.300 10.300 10.300 10.200 10.200 10.200 10.000 10.000 10.000

2003 9.800 9.800 9.800 9.700 9.700 9.700 9.600 9.600 9.600 9.800 9.800 9.800

2004 10.700 10.700 10.700 10.500 10.500 10.500 10.500 10.500 10.500 10.300 10.300 10.300

2005 9.800 9.800 9.800 9.900 9.900 9.900 10.100 10.100 10.100 9.600 9.600 9.600

2006 9.200 9.200 9.200 9.100 9.100 9.100 8.700 8.700 8.700 8.700 8.700 8.700

2007 8.600 8.600 8.600 8.400 8.400 8.400 8.200 8.200 8.200 8.000 8.000 8.000

2008 7.800 7.800 7.800 7.500 7.500 7.500 7.500 7.500 7.500 7.900 7.900 7.900

2009 8.800 8.800 8.800 9.200 9.200 9.200 9.700 9.700 9.700

PREADJUSTMENT FACTORS

Outliers and Other Deterministic Effects

(from TRAMO)

YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

1998 100.000 100.000 100.000 100.000 100.000 100.000 100.000 100.000 100.000

1999 100.000 100.000 100.000 107.192 107.192 107.192 107.192 107.192 107.192 107.192 107.192 107.192

2000 100.513 100.513 100.513 100.513 100.513 100.513 98.820 98.820 98.820 90.620 90.620 90.620

2001 90.620 90.620 90.620 92.719 92.719 92.719 92.719 92.719 92.719 92.719 92.719 92.719

2002 92.719 92.719 92.719 89.124 89.124 89.124 89.124 89.124 89.124 84.330 84.330 84.330

2003 84.330 84.330 84.330 84.330 84.330 84.330 84.330 84.330 84.330 84.330 84.330 84.330

2004 95.600 95.600 95.600 95.600 95.600 95.600 97.165 97.165 97.165 93.928 93.928 93.928

2005 93.928 93.928 93.928 96.367 96.367 96.367 100.683 100.683 100.683 94.453 94.453 94.453

2006 94.453 94.453 94.453 94.453 94.453 94.453 93.180 93.180 93.180 93.180 93.180 93.180

2007 95.018 95.018 95.018 95.018 95.018 95.018 95.018 95.018 95.018 95.018 95.018 95.018

2008 95.018 95.018 95.018 95.018 95.018 95.018 95.018 95.018 95.018 103.884 103.884 103.884

2009 118.525 118.525 118.525 129.595 129.595 129.595 134.962 134.962 134.962

ORIGINAL SERIES (Corrected by TRAMO)

YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

1998 11.000 11.000 11.000 11.100 11.100 11.100 11.200 11.200 11.200

1999 11.400 11.400 11.400 11.195 11.195 11.195 11.288 11.288 11.288 11.568 11.568 11.568

2000 11.541 11.541 11.541 11.342 11.342 11.342 11.334 11.334 11.334 11.807 11.807 11.807

2001 11.587 11.587 11.587 11.432 11.432 11.432 11.325 11.325 11.325 11.864 11.864 11.864

2002 11.648 11.648 11.648 11.557 11.557 11.557 11.445 11.445 11.445 11.858 11.858 11.858

2003 11.621 11.621 11.621 11.502 11.502 11.502 11.384 11.384 11.384 11.621 11.621 11.621

2004 11.193 11.193 11.193 10.983 10.983 10.983 10.806 10.806 10.806 10.966 10.966 10.966

2005 10.434 10.434 10.434 10.273 10.273 10.273 10.031 10.031 10.031 10.164 10.164 10.164

2006 9.740 9.740 9.740 9.634 9.634 9.634 9.337 9.337 9.337 9.337 9.337 9.337

2007 9.051 9.051 9.051 8.840 8.840 8.840 8.630 8.630 8.630 8.419 8.419 8.419

2008 8.209 8.209 8.209 7.893 7.893 7.893 7.893 7.893 7.893 7.605 7.605 7.605

2009 7.425 7.425 7.425 7.099 7.099 7.099 7.187 7.187 7.187

INPUT PARAMETERS

----------------

LAM= 0 IMEAN= 1 RSA= 0 MQ=12

P= 0 BP= 0 Q= 0 BQ= 1

D= 1 BD= 1 NOADMISS= 1 RMOD= 0.500

M=36 QMAX=50 BIAS= 1 SMTR= 0

THTR= -0.400 MAXBIAS= 0.500 IQM= 24 OUT= 1

EPSPHI= 2.000 MAXIT= 20 XL= 0.990 SEK= 3.000

TRANSFORMATION: Z -> LOG Z

TRANSFORMED SERIES

YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

1998 2.398 2.398 2.398 2.407 2.407 2.407 2.416 2.416 2.416

1999 2.434 2.434 2.434 2.415 2.415 2.415 2.424 2.424 2.424 2.448 2.448 2.448

2000 2.446 2.446 2.446 2.428 2.428 2.428 2.428 2.428 2.428 2.469 2.469 2.469

2001 2.450 2.450 2.450 2.436 2.436 2.436 2.427 2.427 2.427 2.473 2.473 2.473

2002 2.455 2.455 2.455 2.447 2.447 2.447 2.438 2.438 2.438 2.473 2.473 2.473

2003 2.453 2.453 2.453 2.443 2.443 2.443 2.432 2.432 2.432 2.453 2.453 2.453

2004 2.415 2.415 2.415 2.396 2.396 2.396 2.380 2.380 2.380 2.395 2.395 2.395

2005 2.345 2.345 2.345 2.330 2.330 2.330 2.306 2.306 2.306 2.319 2.319 2.319

2006 2.276 2.276 2.276 2.265 2.265 2.265 2.234 2.234 2.234 2.234 2.234 2.234

2007 2.203 2.203 2.203 2.179 2.179 2.179 2.155 2.155 2.155 2.131 2.131 2.131

2008 2.105 2.105 2.105 2.066 2.066 2.066 2.066 2.066 2.066 2.029 2.029 2.029

2009 2.005 2.005 2.005 1.960 1.960 1.960 1.972 1.972 1.972

NONSEASONAL DIFFERENCING D= 1

SEASONAL DIFFERENCING BD= 1

DIFFERENCED SERIES

X 10.0D-1

YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

1999 0.000 0.000 -0.008 0.000 0.000 0.155 0.000 0.000

2000 -0.201 0.000 0.000 0.008 0.000 0.000 -0.090 0.000 0.000 0.165 0.000 0.000

2001 -0.165 0.000 0.000 0.040 0.000 0.000 -0.088 0.000 0.000 0.056 0.000 0.000

2002 0.005 0.000 0.000 0.056 0.000 0.000 -0.003 0.000 0.000 -0.110 0.000 0.000

2003 -0.019 0.000 0.000 -0.024 0.000 0.000 -0.006 0.000 0.000 -0.149 0.000 0.000

2004 -0.174 0.000 0.000 -0.086 0.000 0.000 -0.059 0.000 0.000 -0.060 0.000 0.000

2005 -0.122 0.000 0.000 0.034 0.000 0.000 -0.076 0.000 0.000 -0.016 0.000 0.000

2006 0.072 0.000 0.000 0.046 0.000 0.000 -0.076 0.000 0.000 -0.131 0.000 0.000

2007 0.115 0.000 0.000 -0.126 0.000 0.000 0.073 0.000 0.000 -0.247 0.000 0.000

2008 0.058 0.000 0.000 -0.157 0.000 0.000 0.241 0.000 0.000 -0.126 0.000 0.000

2009 0.014 0.000 0.000 -0.056 0.000 0.000 0.123 0.000 0.000

SERIES HAS BEEN MEAN CORRECTED

DIFFERENCED AND CENTERED SERIES

X 10.0D-1

YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

1999 0.009 0.009 0.001 0.009 0.009 0.164 0.009 0.009

2000 -0.192 0.009 0.009 0.017 0.009 0.009 -0.081 0.009 0.009 0.173 0.009 0.009

2001 -0.156 0.009 0.009 0.049 0.009 0.009 -0.079 0.009 0.009 0.065 0.009 0.009

2002 0.014 0.009 0.009 0.065 0.009 0.009 0.006 0.009 0.009 -0.102 0.009 0.009

2003 -0.010 0.009 0.009 -0.015 0.009 0.009 0.003 0.009 0.009 -0.140 0.009 0.009

2004 -0.165 0.009 0.009 -0.077 0.009 0.009 -0.050 0.009 0.009 -0.051 0.009 0.009

2005 -0.113 0.009 0.009 0.043 0.009 0.009 -0.067 0.009 0.009 -0.007 0.009 0.009

2006 0.081 0.009 0.009 0.055 0.009 0.009 -0.067 0.009 0.009 -0.122 0.009 0.009

2007 0.124 0.009 0.009 -0.117 0.009 0.009 0.082 0.009 0.009 -0.238 0.009 0.009

2008 0.067 0.009 0.009 -0.148 0.009 0.009 0.250 0.009 0.009 -0.117 0.009 0.009

2009 0.022 0.009 0.009 -0.047 0.009 0.009 0.132 0.009 0.009

MEAN OF DIFFERENCED SERIES -0.8901E-03

VARIANCE OF Z SERIES = 0.2357E-01

VARIANCE OF DIFFERENCED SERIES = 0.3841E-04

AUTOCORRELATIONS OF STATIONARY SERIES

-------------------------------------

-0.0208 -0.0210 -0.4083 -0.0234 -0.0236 0.4416

SE 0.0894 0.0895 0.0895 0.1034 0.1034 0.1034

-0.0258 -0.0259 -0.4158 -0.0228 -0.0230 0.5403

SE 0.1176 0.1176 0.1176 0.1289 0.1289 0.1289

-0.0211 -0.0213 -0.1919 -0.0244 -0.0246 0.2076

SE 0.1459 0.1459 0.1460 0.1480 0.1480 0.1480

-0.0250 -0.0252 -0.1459 -0.0235 -0.0237 -0.0634

SE 0.1504 0.1504 0.1504 0.1516 0.1516 0.1516

-0.0202 -0.0204 0.0301 -0.0204 -0.0206 0.0581

SE 0.1518 0.1518 0.1519 0.1519 0.1519 0.1520

-0.0196 -0.0198 0.1668 -0.0223 -0.0225 -0.0794

SE 0.1521 0.1522 0.1522 0.1536 0.1537 0.1537

PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS

------------------------

-0.0208 -0.0214 -0.4096 -0.0539 -0.0573 0.3243

SE 0.0894 0.0894 0.0894 0.0894 0.0894 0.0894

-0.0365 -0.0380 -0.2241 -0.0493 -0.0522 0.3404

SE 0.0894 0.0894 0.0894 0.0894 0.0894 0.0894

-0.0237 -0.0243 0.2459 -0.0206 -0.0207 -0.1672

SE 0.0894 0.0894 0.0894 0.0894 0.0894 0.0894

-0.0248 -0.0253 0.1205 -0.0161 -0.0163 -0.4436

SE 0.0894 0.0894 0.0894 0.0894 0.0894 0.0894

-0.0438 -0.0461 -0.1120 -0.0500 -0.0530 0.3167

SE 0.0894 0.0894 0.0894 0.0894 0.0894 0.0894

-0.0291 -0.0300 0.0949 -0.0330 -0.0339 0.4354

SE 0.0894 0.0894 0.0894 0.0894 0.0894 0.0894

MODEL FITTED

NONSEASONAL P= 0 D= 1 Q= 0

SEASONAL BP= 0 BD= 1 BQ= 1

PERIODICITY MQ= 12

PARAMETER SET AWAY FROM BOUNDARY,I= 1

ALL PARAMETERS AT LIMITS F = 0.21688359E-02

-0.990000E+00

PARAMETER ESTIMATES

MEAN = -0.890106E-03

SE = *******

CORRELATION MATRIX

0.000

ARIMA PARAMETERS

BTHETA= 0.9900

SE = 0.0000

RESIDUALS

X 10.0D-1

YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

1998 0.004 0.004 0.017 0.004 0.004 0.064 0.004 0.004

1999 -0.063 0.004 0.004 -0.001 0.004 0.004 -0.015 0.004 0.004 0.101 0.005 0.005

2000 -0.130 0.005 0.005 0.017 0.004 0.004 -0.066 0.004 0.004 0.074 0.004 0.004

2001 -0.028 0.004 0.004 0.032 0.004 0.004 -0.013 0.004 0.004 -0.008 0.005 0.005

2002 0.042 0.005 0.005 0.033 0.004 0.004 0.019 0.004 0.004 -0.093 0.004 0.004

2003 -0.051 0.004 0.004 -0.048 0.004 0.004 -0.016 0.004 0.004 -0.047 0.005 0.005

2004 -0.114 0.005 0.005 -0.030 0.004 0.004 -0.034 0.004 0.004 -0.004 0.004 0.004

2005 0.000 0.004 0.004 0.072 0.004 0.004 -0.033 0.004 0.004 -0.003 0.005 0.005

2006 0.081 0.005 0.005 -0.017 0.004 0.004 -0.034 0.004 0.004 -0.119 0.004 0.004

2007 0.044 0.004 0.004 -0.100 0.004 0.004 0.115 0.004 0.004 -0.120 0.005 0.005

2008 0.024 0.005 0.005 -0.049 0.004 0.004 0.136 0.004 0.004 0.002 0.004 0.004

2009 -0.001 0.004 0.004 0.001 0.004 0.004 -0.002 0.004 0.004

STUDENTIZED RESIDUAL OF -3.4497 AT T= 22 ( 1 2000)

STUDENTIZED RESIDUAL OF -3.0442 AT T= 70 ( 1 2004)

STUDENTIZED RESIDUAL OF -3.1783 AT T=103 (10 2006)

STUDENTIZED RESIDUAL OF 3.0711 AT T=112 ( 7 2007)

STUDENTIZED RESIDUAL OF -3.1932 AT T=115 (10 2007)

STUDENTIZED RESIDUAL OF 3.6150 AT T=124 ( 7 2008)

TEST-STATISTICS ON RESIDUALS

----------------------------

MEAN= 0.3122E-04

ST.DEV.= 0.3039E-03

OF MEAN

T-VALUE= 0.1027

NORMALITY TEST= 175.5 ( CHI-SQUARED(2) )

SKEWNESS= -0.5466 ( SE = 0.2093 )

KURTOSIS= 8.4351 ( SE = 0.4185 )

SUM OF SQUARES= 0.1734E-02

DURBIN-WATSON= 2.0271

STANDARD DEVI.= 0.3755E-02

OF RESID.

VARIANCE= 0.1410E-04

OF RESID.

AUTOCORRELATIONS OF RESIDUAL

----------------------------

-0.0137 -0.0138 -0.3065 -0.0142 -0.0143 0.3769

SE 0.0854 0.0855 0.0855 0.0931 0.0932 0.0932

-0.0160 -0.0161 -0.3749 -0.0144 -0.0145 0.4237

SE 0.1037 0.1037 0.1037 0.1132 0.1132 0.1132

-0.0143 -0.0144 -0.1673 -0.0177 -0.0178 0.0996

SE 0.1243 0.1243 0.1243 0.1259 0.1259 0.1260

-0.0190 -0.0191 -0.1612 -0.0162 -0.0163 -0.2042

SE 0.1265 0.1266 0.1266 0.1281 0.1281 0.1281

-0.0136 -0.0137 0.0515 -0.0149 -0.0150 0.0227

SE 0.1305 0.1305 0.1305 0.1306 0.1306 0.1306

-0.0145 -0.0146 0.2059 -0.0153 -0.0153 -0.0817

SE 0.1307 0.1307 0.1307 0.1330 0.1331 0.1331

THE LJUNG-BOX Q VALUE IS 92.23

IF RESIDUALS ARE RANDOM IT SHOULD BE DISTRIBUTED AS CHI-SQUARED (23)

APPROXIMATE TEST OF RUNS ON RESIDUALS

-------------------------------------

NUM.DATA= 137

NUM.(+)= 71

NUM.(-)= 66

T-VALUE= -2.65

AUTOCORRELATIONS OF SQUARED RESIDUAL

------------------------------------

-0.1315 -0.1324 0.3240 -0.1343 -0.1352 0.1929

SE 0.0854 0.0869 0.0884 0.0966 0.0980 0.0994

-0.1340 -0.1349 0.4212 -0.1340 -0.1350 0.3262

SE 0.1020 0.1033 0.1046 0.1163 0.1174 0.1186

-0.1369 -0.1378 0.2466 -0.1254 -0.1264 0.0926

SE 0.1249 0.1260 0.1271 0.1306 0.1315 0.1323

-0.1188 -0.1197 0.1833 -0.1083 -0.1092 0.0983

SE 0.1328 0.1336 0.1344 0.1362 0.1368 0.1374

-0.0999 -0.1009 0.0689 -0.0894 -0.0903 0.1219

SE 0.1380 0.1385 0.1390 0.1393 0.1397 0.1401

-0.0803 -0.0813 0.1708 -0.0813 -0.0822 0.1116

SE 0.1409 0.1412 0.1416 0.1430 0.1434 0.1437

THE LJUNG-BOX Q VALUE IS 111.66

IF RESIDUALS ARE RANDOM IT SHOULD BE DISTRIBUTED AS CHI-SQUARED (23)

BACKWARD RESIDUALS

X 10.0D-1

YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

1998 0.004 0.004 0.017 0.004 0.004 0.065 0.004 0.004 -0.063

1999 0.004 0.004 -0.001 0.004 0.004 -0.015 0.004 0.004 0.101 0.005 0.005 -0.130

2000 0.005 0.005 0.017 0.004 0.004 -0.066 0.004 0.004 0.074 0.004 0.004 -0.027

2001 0.004 0.004 0.032 0.004 0.004 -0.013 0.004 0.004 -0.009 0.005 0.005 0.041

2002 0.005 0.005 0.033 0.004 0.004 0.019 0.004 0.004 -0.093 0.004 0.004 -0.052

2003 0.004 0.004 -0.049 0.004 0.004 -0.016 0.004 0.004 -0.047 0.005 0.005 -0.114

2004 0.005 0.005 -0.029 0.004 0.004 -0.034 0.004 0.004 -0.004 0.004 0.004 0.001

2005 0.004 0.004 0.072 0.004 0.004 -0.033 0.004 0.004 -0.003 0.005 0.005 0.080

2006 0.005 0.005 -0.018 0.004 0.004 -0.034 0.004 0.004 -0.121 0.004 0.004 0.044

2007 0.004 0.004 -0.100 0.004 0.004 0.117 0.004 0.004 -0.119 0.005 0.005 0.023

2008 0.005 0.005 -0.048 0.004 0.004 0.134 0.004 0.004 0.002 0.004 0.004 -0.001

2009 0.004 0.004 0.001 0.004 0.004 -0.002 0.004 0.004

SECOND PART:

DERIVATION OF THE MODELS FOR THE COMPONENTS

SERIES TITLE: un_gr

MODEL PARAMETERS

(0,1,0)(0,1,1)

PARAMETER VALUES PASSED FROM ARIMA ESTIMATION (TRUE SIGNS)

THETA PARAMETERS

1.00

BTHETA PARAMETERS

1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.99

PHI PARAMETERS

1.00

BPHI PARAMETERS

1.00

NUMERATOR OF THE MODEL

----------------------

1.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

0.9900

STATIONARY AUTOREGRESSIVE TREND-CYCLE

1.0000

NON-STATIONARY AUTOREGRESSIVE TREND-CYCLE

1.0000 -2.0000 1.0000

AUTOREGRESSIVE TREND-CYCLE

--------------------

1.0000 -2.0000 1.0000

STATIONARY AUTOREGRESSIVE TRANSITORY COMP.

1.0000

NON-STATIONARY AUTOREGRESSIVE TRANSITORY COMP.

1.0000

AUTOREGRESSIVE TRANSITORY COMP.

------------------------------

1.0000

STATIONARY AUTOREGRESSIVE SEASONAL COMPONENT

1.0000

NON-STATIONARY AUTOREGRESSIVE SEASONAL COMPONENT

1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000

AUTOREGRESSIVE SEASONAL COMPONENT

---------------------------------

1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000

STATIONARY AUTOREGRESSIVE SEASONALLY ADJUSTED COMPONENT

1.0000

NON-STATIONARY AUTOREGRESSIVE SEASONALLY ADJUSTED COMPONENT

1.0000 -2.0000 1.0000

AUTOREGRESSIVE SEASONALLY ADJUSTED COMPONENT

--------------------------------------------

1.0000 -2.0000 1.0000

TOTAL DENOMINATOR

-----------------

1.0000 -1.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

-1.0000 1.0000

DECOMPOSITION INVALID,IRREGULAR SPECTRUM NEGATIVE

*****************************

THE MODEL IS APPROXIMATED

*****************************

INPUT PARAMETERS

----------------

LAM= 0 IMEAN= 1 RSA= 0 MQ=12

P= 0 BP= 0 Q= 1 BQ= 1

D= 1 BD= 1 NOADMISS= 2 RMOD= 0.500

M=36 QMAX=50 BIAS= 1 SMTR= 0

THTR= -0.400 MAXBIAS= 0.500 IQM= 24 OUT= 1

EPSPHI= 2.000 MAXIT= 20 XL= 0.990 SEK= 3.000

TRANSFORMATION: Z -> LOG Z

TRANSFORMED SERIES

YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

1998 2.398 2.398 2.398 2.407 2.407 2.407 2.416 2.416 2.416

1999 2.434 2.434 2.434 2.415 2.415 2.415 2.424 2.424 2.424 2.448 2.448 2.448

2000 2.446 2.446 2.446 2.428 2.428 2.428 2.428 2.428 2.428 2.469 2.469 2.469

2001 2.450 2.450 2.450 2.436 2.436 2.436 2.427 2.427 2.427 2.473 2.473 2.473

2002 2.455 2.455 2.455 2.447 2.447 2.447 2.438 2.438 2.438 2.473 2.473 2.473

2003 2.453 2.453 2.453 2.443 2.443 2.443 2.432 2.432 2.432 2.453 2.453 2.453

2004 2.415 2.415 2.415 2.396 2.396 2.396 2.380 2.380 2.380 2.395 2.395 2.395

2005 2.345 2.345 2.345 2.330 2.330 2.330 2.306 2.306 2.306 2.319 2.319 2.319

2006 2.276 2.276 2.276 2.265 2.265 2.265 2.234 2.234 2.234 2.234 2.234 2.234

2007 2.203 2.203 2.203 2.179 2.179 2.179 2.155 2.155 2.155 2.131 2.131 2.131

2008 2.105 2.105 2.105 2.066 2.066 2.066 2.066 2.066 2.066 2.029 2.029 2.029

2009 2.005 2.005 2.005 1.960 1.960 1.960 1.972 1.972 1.972

NONSEASONAL DIFFERENCING D= 1

SEASONAL DIFFERENCING BD= 1

DIFFERENCED SERIES

X 10.0D-1

YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

1999 0.000 0.000 -0.008 0.000 0.000 0.155 0.000 0.000

2000 -0.201 0.000 0.000 0.008 0.000 0.000 -0.090 0.000 0.000 0.165 0.000 0.000

2001 -0.165 0.000 0.000 0.040 0.000 0.000 -0.088 0.000 0.000 0.056 0.000 0.000

2002 0.005 0.000 0.000 0.056 0.000 0.000 -0.003 0.000 0.000 -0.110 0.000 0.000

2003 -0.019 0.000 0.000 -0.024 0.000 0.000 -0.006 0.000 0.000 -0.149 0.000 0.000

2004 -0.174 0.000 0.000 -0.086 0.000 0.000 -0.059 0.000 0.000 -0.060 0.000 0.000

2005 -0.122 0.000 0.000 0.034 0.000 0.000 -0.076 0.000 0.000 -0.016 0.000 0.000

2006 0.072 0.000 0.000 0.046 0.000 0.000 -0.076 0.000 0.000 -0.131 0.000 0.000

2007 0.115 0.000 0.000 -0.126 0.000 0.000 0.073 0.000 0.000 -0.247 0.000 0.000

2008 0.058 0.000 0.000 -0.157 0.000 0.000 0.241 0.000 0.000 -0.126 0.000 0.000

2009 0.014 0.000 0.000 -0.056 0.000 0.000 0.123 0.000 0.000

SERIES HAS BEEN MEAN CORRECTED

DIFFERENCED AND CENTERED SERIES

X 10.0D-1

YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

1999 0.009 0.009 0.001 0.009 0.009 0.164 0.009 0.009

2000 -0.192 0.009 0.009 0.017 0.009 0.009 -0.081 0.009 0.009 0.173 0.009 0.009

2001 -0.156 0.009 0.009 0.049 0.009 0.009 -0.079 0.009 0.009 0.065 0.009 0.009

2002 0.014 0.009 0.009 0.065 0.009 0.009 0.006 0.009 0.009 -0.102 0.009 0.009

2003 -0.010 0.009 0.009 -0.015 0.009 0.009 0.003 0.009 0.009 -0.140 0.009 0.009

2004 -0.165 0.009 0.009 -0.077 0.009 0.009 -0.050 0.009 0.009 -0.051 0.009 0.009

2005 -0.113 0.009 0.009 0.043 0.009 0.009 -0.067 0.009 0.009 -0.007 0.009 0.009

2006 0.081 0.009 0.009 0.055 0.009 0.009 -0.067 0.009 0.009 -0.122 0.009 0.009

2007 0.124 0.009 0.009 -0.117 0.009 0.009 0.082 0.009 0.009 -0.238 0.009 0.009

2008 0.067 0.009 0.009 -0.148 0.009 0.009 0.250 0.009 0.009 -0.117 0.009 0.009

2009 0.022 0.009 0.009 -0.047 0.009 0.009 0.132 0.009 0.009

MEAN OF DIFFERENCED SERIES -0.8901E-03

VARIANCE OF Z SERIES = 0.2357E-01

VARIANCE OF DIFFERENCED SERIES = 0.3841E-04

AUTOCORRELATIONS OF STATIONARY SERIES

-------------------------------------

-0.0208 -0.0210 -0.4083 -0.0234 -0.0236 0.4416

SE 0.0894 0.0895 0.0895 0.1034 0.1034 0.1034

-0.0258 -0.0259 -0.4158 -0.0228 -0.0230 0.5403

SE 0.1176 0.1176 0.1176 0.1289 0.1289 0.1289

-0.0211 -0.0213 -0.1919 -0.0244 -0.0246 0.2076

SE 0.1459 0.1459 0.1460 0.1480 0.1480 0.1480

-0.0250 -0.0252 -0.1459 -0.0235 -0.0237 -0.0634

SE 0.1504 0.1504 0.1504 0.1516 0.1516 0.1516

-0.0202 -0.0204 0.0301 -0.0204 -0.0206 0.0581

SE 0.1518 0.1518 0.1519 0.1519 0.1519 0.1520

-0.0196 -0.0198 0.1668 -0.0223 -0.0225 -0.0794

SE 0.1521 0.1522 0.1522 0.1536 0.1537 0.1537

PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS

------------------------

-0.0208 -0.0214 -0.4096 -0.0539 -0.0573 0.3243

SE 0.0894 0.0894 0.0894 0.0894 0.0894 0.0894

-0.0365 -0.0380 -0.2241 -0.0493 -0.0522 0.3404

SE 0.0894 0.0894 0.0894 0.0894 0.0894 0.0894

-0.0237 -0.0243 0.2459 -0.0206 -0.0207 -0.1672

SE 0.0894 0.0894 0.0894 0.0894 0.0894 0.0894

-0.0248 -0.0253 0.1205 -0.0161 -0.0163 -0.4436

SE 0.0894 0.0894 0.0894 0.0894 0.0894 0.0894

-0.0438 -0.0461 -0.1120 -0.0500 -0.0530 0.3167

SE 0.0894 0.0894 0.0894 0.0894 0.0894 0.0894

-0.0291 -0.0300 0.0949 -0.0330 -0.0339 0.4354

SE 0.0894 0.0894 0.0894 0.0894 0.0894 0.0894

MODEL FITTED

NONSEASONAL P= 0 D= 1 Q= 1

SEASONAL BP= 0 BD= 1 BQ= 1

PERIODICITY MQ= 12

PARAMETER SET AWAY FROM BOUNDARY,I= 2

CONVERGED AFTER 4 ITERATIONS AND 12 FUNCTION VALUES F = 0.21684198E-02

0.144050E-01 -0.990000E+00

PARAMETERS FIXED

2

PARAMETERS OUTSIDE ADMISSIBLE REGION

PARAMETER 2 FIXED

MEAN = -0.890106E-03

SE = *******

ARIMA PARAMETERS

TH = -0.0144

SE = *****

BTH = 0.0000

SE = *****

SECOND PART:

DERIVATION OF THE MODELS FOR THE COMPONENTS

SERIES TITLE: un_gr

MODEL PARAMETERS

(0,1,1)(0,1,1)

PARAMETER VALUES PASSED FROM ARIMA ESTIMATION (TRUE SIGNS)

THETA PARAMETERS

1.00 -0.01

BTHETA PARAMETERS

1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

PHI PARAMETERS

1.00

BPHI PARAMETERS

1.00

NUMERATOR OF THE MODEL

----------------------

1.0000 -0.0144 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

0.0000 0.0000

STATIONARY AUTOREGRESSIVE TREND-CYCLE

1.0000

NON-STATIONARY AUTOREGRESSIVE TREND-CYCLE

1.0000 -2.0000 1.0000

AUTOREGRESSIVE TREND-CYCLE

--------------------

1.0000 -2.0000 1.0000

STATIONARY AUTOREGRESSIVE TRANSITORY COMP.

1.0000

NON-STATIONARY AUTOREGRESSIVE TRANSITORY COMP.

1.0000

AUTOREGRESSIVE TRANSITORY COMP.

------------------------------

1.0000

STATIONARY AUTOREGRESSIVE SEASONAL COMPONENT

1.0000

NON-STATIONARY AUTOREGRESSIVE SEASONAL COMPONENT

1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000

AUTOREGRESSIVE SEASONAL COMPONENT

---------------------------------

1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000

STATIONARY AUTOREGRESSIVE SEASONALLY ADJUSTED COMPONENT

1.0000

NON-STATIONARY AUTOREGRESSIVE SEASONALLY ADJUSTED COMPONENT

1.0000 -2.0000 1.0000

AUTOREGRESSIVE SEASONALLY ADJUSTED COMPONENT

--------------------------------------------

1.0000 -2.0000 1.0000

TOTAL DENOMINATOR

-----------------

1.0000 -1.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

-1.0000 1.0000

MA ROOTS OF TREND-CYCLE

-----------------------

REAL PART IMAGINARY PART MODULUS ARGUMENT PERIOD

(DEG.)

0.752 0.000 0.752 0.000 -

-1.000 0.000 1.000 180.000 2.0

TOTAL SQUARED ERROR= 0.3167314E-34

MA ROOTS OF SEAS.

-----------------

REAL PART IMAGINARY PART MODULUS ARGUMENT PERIOD

(DEG.)

0.604 0.610 0.858 45.309 7.946

-0.676 0.671 0.952 135.200 2.663

0.222 0.857 0.885 75.470 4.770

-0.243 0.885 0.918 105.346 3.417

0.291 0.000 0.291 0.000 -

-0.966 0.258 1.000 165.064 2.181

TOTAL SQUARED ERROR= 0.5710378E-23

MA ROOTS OF SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SERIES

--------------------------------------

REAL PART IMAGINARY PART MODULUS ARGUMENT PERIOD

(DEG.)

0.291 0.000 0.291 0.000 -

0.744 0.000 0.744 0.000 -

TOTAL SQUARED ERROR= 0.7914352E-32

MODELS FOR THE COMPONENTS

-------------------------

TREND-CYCLE NUMERATOR

1.0000 0.2484 -0.7516

TREND-CYCLE DENOMINATOR

1.0000 -2.0000 1.0000

INNOV. VAR. (*) 0.02733

SEAS. NUMERATOR

1.0000 1.8269 2.1700 2.2443 2.0937 1.8175 1.4757 1.0985 0.7602 0.4202 0.2105 -0.1286

SEAS. DENOMINATOR

1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000

INNOV. VAR. (*) 0.34582

IRREGULAR

VAR. 0.06500

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED NUMERATOR

1.0000 -1.0354 0.2168

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DENOMINATOR

1.0000 -2.0000 1.0000

INNOV. VAR. (*) 0.20501

(*) IN UNITS OF VAR(A)

MOVING AVERAGE REPRESENTATION OF ESTIMATORS (NONSTATIONARY)

The last column (the sum of the Psi-Weights) should be zero

for negative lags, 1 for lag=0, and equal to the Box-Jenkins

Psi-Weights for positive lags.

PSIEP(LAG), for example, represents the effect of the overall

innovation a(t-lag) on the estimator of the trend for period t.

Similarly for the other components.

LAG PSIEP PSIES PSIEC PSIEA PSIUE PSIEP + PSIES + PSIUE

-24 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

-23 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

-22 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

-21 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

-20 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

-19 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

-18 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

-17 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

-16 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

-15 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

-14 -0.0003 -0.0006 0.0000 0.0006 0.0009 0.0000

-13 -0.0214 -0.0426 0.0000 0.0426 0.0641 0.0000

-12 -0.0610 0.1260 0.0000 -0.1260 -0.0650 0.0000

-11 -0.0746 0.0746 0.0000 -0.0746 0.0000 0.0000

-10 -0.0608 0.0608 0.0000 -0.0608 0.0000 0.0000

-9 -0.0402 0.0402 0.0000 -0.0402 0.0000 0.0000

-8 -0.0127 0.0127 0.0000 -0.0127 0.0000 0.0000

-7 0.0216 -0.0216 0.0000 0.0216 0.0000 0.0000

-6 0.0628 -0.0628 0.0000 0.0628 0.0000 0.0000

-5 0.1108 -0.1108 0.0000 0.1108 0.0000 0.0000

-4 0.1656 -0.1656 0.0000 0.1656 0.0000 0.0000

-3 0.2273 -0.2273 0.0000 0.2273 0.0000 0.0000

-2 0.2962 -0.2953 0.0000 0.2953 -0.0009 0.0000

-1 0.3927 -0.3286 0.0000 0.3286 -0.0641 0.0000

0 0.5145 0.4205 0.0000 0.5795 0.0650 1.0000

1 0.6172 0.3684 0.0000 0.6172 0.0000 0.9856

2 0.6993 0.2863 0.0000 0.6993 0.0000 0.9856

3 0.7815 0.2041 0.0000 0.7815 0.0000 0.9856

4 0.8636 0.1220 0.0000 0.8636 0.0000 0.9856

5 0.9457 0.0399 0.0000 0.9457 0.0000 0.9856

6 1.0279 -0.0423 0.0000 1.0279 0.0000 0.9856

7 1.1100 -0.1244 0.0000 1.1100 0.0000 0.9856

8 1.1921 -0.2065 0.0000 1.1921 0.0000 0.9856

9 1.2743 -0.2887 0.0000 1.2743 0.0000 0.9856

10 1.3564 -0.3708 0.0000 1.3564 0.0000 0.9856

11 1.4385 -0.4529 0.0000 1.4385 0.0000 0.9856

12 1.5207 0.4649 0.0000 1.5207 0.0000 1.9856

13 1.6028 0.3684 0.0000 1.6028 0.0000 1.9712

14 1.6849 0.2863 0.0000 1.6849 0.0000 1.9712

15 1.7671 0.2041 0.0000 1.7671 0.0000 1.9712

16 1.8492 0.1220 0.0000 1.8492 0.0000 1.9712

17 1.9313 0.0399 0.0000 1.9313 0.0000 1.9712

18 2.0135 -0.0423 0.0000 2.0135 0.0000 1.9712

19 2.0956 -0.1244 0.0000 2.0956 0.0000 1.9712

20 2.1777 -0.2065 0.0000 2.1777 0.0000 1.9712

21 2.2599 -0.2887 0.0000 2.2599 0.0000 1.9712

22 2.3420 -0.3708 0.0000 2.3420 0.0000 1.9712

23 2.4241 -0.4529 0.0000 2.4241 0.0000 1.9712

24 2.5063 0.4649 0.0000 2.5063 0.0000 2.9712

WIENER-KOLMOGOROV FILTERS (ONE SIDE)

TREND-CYCLE COMPONENT

0.1631 0.1186 0.0701 0.0625 0.0556 0.0486

0.0417 0.0347 0.0278 0.0208 0.0136 -0.0142

-0.0399 -0.0211 -0.0003 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

SA SERIES COMPONENT

0.4194 -0.0077 0.0682 0.0625 0.0556 0.0486

0.0417 0.0347 0.0278 0.0208 0.0145 0.0490

-0.1681 0.0420 0.0006 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

SEASONAL COMPONENT

0.5806 0.0077 -0.0682 -0.0625 -0.0556 -0.0486

-0.0417 -0.0347 -0.0278 -0.0208 -0.0145 -0.0490

0.1681 -0.0420 -0.0006 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

IRREGULAR COMPONENT

0.2563 -0.1263 -0.0018 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0009 0.0632

-0.1282 0.0632 0.0009 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION OF COMPONENTS (STATIONARY TRANSFORMATION)

TREND-CYCLE ADJUSTED

LAG COMPONENT ESTIMATOR ESTIMATE COMPONENT ESTIMATOR ESTIMATE

1 0.038 0.408 0.447 -0.595 -0.660 -0.692

2 -0.462 -0.225 -0.273 0.102 0.190 0.333

3 0.000 -0.093 -0.321 0.000 -0.016 -0.245

4 0.000 0.076 -0.066 0.000 0.002 0.198

5 0.000 0.069 0.213 0.000 0.002 -0.206

6 0.000 0.059 0.362 0.000 0.001 0.264

7 0.000 0.049 0.213 0.000 0.001 -0.221

8 0.000 0.041 -0.118 0.000 0.001 0.245

9 0.000 0.120 -0.283 0.000 0.010 -0.304

10 0.000 0.181 -0.104 0.000 -0.093 0.226

11 0.000 -0.140 0.158 0.000 0.332 -0.157

12 0.000 -0.441 0.201 0.000 -0.499 0.161

VAR.(*) 0.044 0.005 0.002 0.434 0.192 0.078

(*) IN UNITS OF VAR(A)

AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION OF COMPONENTS (STATIONARY TRANSFORMATION)

IRREGULAR SEASONAL

LAG COMPONENT ESTIMATOR ESTIMATE COMPONENT ESTIMATOR ESTIMATE

1 0.000 -0.493 -0.482 0.951 0.878 0.802

2 0.000 -0.007 0.097 0.834 0.601 0.404

3 0.000 0.000 -0.231 0.684 0.265 0.006

4 0.000 0.000 0.109 0.524 -0.061 -0.229

5 0.000 0.000 -0.119 0.373 -0.327 -0.343

6 0.000 0.000 0.255 0.242 -0.505 -0.414

7 0.000 0.000 -0.121 0.139 -0.584 -0.535

8 0.000 0.000 0.141 0.065 -0.565 -0.602

9 0.000 0.000 -0.300 0.020 -0.466 -0.527

10 0.000 0.004 0.144 -0.001 -0.312 -0.248

11 0.000 0.246 -0.073 -0.005 -0.136 0.114

12 0.000 -0.500 0.159 0.000 0.021 0.407

VAR.(*) 0.065 0.017 0.007 8.981 2.404 1.707

(*) IN UNITS OF VAR(A)

For all components it should happen that :

- Var(Component) > Var(Estimator)

- Var(Estimator) close to Var(Estimate)

SAMPLE CROSS CORRELATION BETWEEN COMPONENTS

-------------------------------------------

SEASONAL TREND-CYCLE IRREGULAR

COMPONENT COMPONENT

SA SERIES 0.000 0.000 0.000

SEASONAL 0.000 0.000

COMP.

TREND-CYCLE 0.000

CROSSCORRELATION BETWEEN STATIONARY TRANSFORMATION OF ESTIMATORS

ESTIMATOR ESTIMATE

TREND/SEASONAL -0.215 -0.181

SEASONAL/IRREGULAR 0.054 0.059

TREND-CYCLE/IRREGULAR -0.030 -0.100

PSEUDO-INNOVATIONS IN THE COMPONENTS

------------------------------------

PSEUDO INNOVATIONS IN TREND-CYCLE

X 10.0D-3

YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

1998 -0.02 -0.03 -0.28 -0.18 0.18 0.31 0.28 0.14 0.12

1999 0.14 0.20 0.47 0.41 0.09 -0.16 -0.08 0.25 0.46 0.39 0.11 0.02

2000 0.05 0.17 0.42 0.34 0.01 0.35 0.24 -0.23 -0.30 -0.28 -0.19 -0.31

2001 -0.27 -0.12 -0.35 -0.27 0.05 0.36 0.26 -0.15 -0.51 -0.39 0.08 0.17

2002 0.14 0.02 -0.21 -0.14 0.18 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.21 0.20 0.18 0.57

2003 0.44 -0.09 -0.01 -0.04 -0.16 -0.20 -0.19 -0.14 0.11 0.03 -0.30 -0.20

2004 -0.24 -0.37 -0.19 -0.26 -0.50 -0.61 -0.58 -0.43 -0.56 -0.52 -0.35 -0.66

2005 -0.56 -0.13 -0.21 -0.18 -0.07 -0.08 -0.08 -0.07 -0.23 -0.18 0.04 -0.01

2006 0.01 0.07 -0.27 -0.15 0.30 0.48 0.43 0.19 0.22 0.21 0.17 0.52

2007 0.40 -0.07 -0.30 -0.22 0.08 0.09 0.08 0.08 0.14 0.12 0.04 0.11

2008 0.08 -0.01 0.00 0.00 -0.03 -0.20 -0.14 0.08 0.12 0.13 0.09 -0.33

2009 -0.21 0.33 0.65 0.53 0.09 0.06 0.05 0.06 0.02

PSEUDO INNOVATIONS IN SEASONAL

X 10.0D-1

YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

1998 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.01 -0.01 0.00 0.00

1999 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 -0.03 -0.01 -0.02 0.09 0.00 0.02 -0.04 0.01 0.00

2000 0.02 0.01 0.00 -0.10 -0.02 -0.02 0.11 0.02 0.02 -0.07 0.01 0.01

2001 0.06 0.03 0.02 -0.11 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.02 -0.01 -0.04 -0.02 0.00

2002 0.07 0.02 0.02 -0.04 0.01 0.00 -0.04 -0.01 -0.01 0.01 -0.01 0.00

2003 0.01 0.01 0.00 -0.01 0.01 0.00 -0.04 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.02

2004 -0.06 0.02 0.01 -0.04 0.02 0.01 -0.01 0.02 0.02 -0.01 0.04 0.02

2005 -0.05 0.03 0.01 -0.07 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01

2006 0.01 0.02 0.00 -0.03 0.00 0.00 -0.02 -0.01 -0.01 0.02 -0.01 0.01

2007 -0.03 0.00 -0.01 0.05 0.00 0.02 -0.04 0.01 0.00 0.03 0.02 0.01

2008 -0.10 -0.02 -0.02 0.09 0.01 0.01 -0.03 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.00

2009 -0.09 -0.03 -0.01 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

PSEUDO INNOVATIONS IN SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SERIES

X 10.0D-2

YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

1998 0.00 -0.01 0.04 -0.21 0.04 0.03 0.15 0.04 0.04

1999 0.02 0.05 0.00 0.26 0.03 0.07 -0.17 0.06 0.03 0.24 0.03 0.05

2000 -0.04 0.05 0.00 0.25 0.00 -0.07 0.28 -0.06 -0.05 -0.12 -0.05 -0.03

2001 -0.15 -0.03 0.02 -0.22 0.01 -0.05 0.26 -0.04 0.03 -0.33 0.02 0.01

2002 0.09 0.01 0.06 -0.19 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.07 0.05 -0.04

2003 0.37 -0.02 -0.05 0.05 -0.04 -0.04 -0.07 -0.04 -0.09 0.16 -0.08 -0.11

2004 0.00 -0.10 -0.14 0.04 -0.14 -0.12 -0.23 -0.12 -0.09 -0.22 -0.09 -0.03

2005 -0.35 -0.04 -0.02 -0.10 -0.02 -0.02 -0.03 -0.02 0.01 -0.15 0.01 0.02

2006 -0.03 0.02 0.09 -0.26 0.08 0.05 0.23 0.05 0.05 0.08 0.05 -0.03

2007 0.33 -0.01 0.03 -0.20 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.07 0.01 -0.01

2008 0.07 0.00 -0.01 0.01 -0.01 0.03 -0.15 0.02 0.02 0.05 0.03 0.11

2009 -0.31 0.09 0.03 0.35 0.03 0.03 0.01 0.02 0.02

THIRD PART:

ERROR ANALYSIS

FINAL ESTIMATION ERROR REVISION IN CONCURRENT ESTIMATOR

ACF (LAG) TREND-CYCLE ADJUSTED TREND-CYCLE ADJUSTED

1 0.869 0.678 0.740 0.750

2 0.624 0.463 0.521 0.526

3 0.412 0.292 0.326 0.323

4 0.232 0.148 0.161 0.149

5 0.090 0.036 0.026 0.009

6 -0.013 -0.044 -0.077 -0.097

7 -0.078 -0.093 -0.145 -0.167

8 -0.109 -0.113 -0.179 -0.201

9 -0.110 -0.108 -0.180 -0.199

10 -0.087 -0.084 -0.148 -0.162

11 -0.051 -0.056 -0.086 -0.090

12 -0.019 0.068 -0.024 0.044

VAR.(*) 0.134 0.161 0.353 0.320

TOTAL ESTIMATION ERROR (CONCURRENT ESTIMATOR)

----------------------

ACF (LAG) TREND-CYCLE ADJUSTED

1 0.775 0.726

2 0.549 0.505

3 0.350 0.312

4 0.180 0.149

5 0.043 0.018

6 -0.059 -0.080

7 -0.127 -0.142

8 -0.160 -0.171

9 -0.160 -0.168

10 -0.131 -0.136

11 -0.076 -0.079

12 -0.023 0.052

VAR.(*) 0.487 0.481

(*) IN UNITS OF VAR(A)

VARIANCE OF THE REVISION ERROR (*)

------------------------------

ADDITIONAL TREND-CYCLE ADJUSTED

PERIODS

0 0.3530 0.3197

12 0.4590E-03 0.1819E-02

24 -0.6468E-17 -0.1646E-16

36 -0.6468E-17 -0.1646E-16

48 -0.6468E-17 -0.1646E-16

60 -0.6468E-17 -0.1646E-16

PERCENTAGE REDUCTION IN THE STANDARD ERROR OF THE REVISION AFTER ADDITIONAL YEARS

(COMPARISON WITH CONCURRENT ESTIMATORS)

AFTER 1 YEAR 96.39 92.46

AFTER 2 YEAR 100.0 100.0

AFTER 3 YEAR 100.0 100.0

AFTER 4 YEAR 100.0 100.0

AFTER 5 YEAR 100.0 100.0

VARIANCE OF THE REVISION ERROR FOR THE SEASONAL COMPONENT (ONE YEAR AHEAD ADJUSTMENT)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PERIODS AHEAD VARIANCE (*)

0 0.3197

1 0.4965

2 0.6322

3 0.7142

4 0.7559

5 0.7707

6 0.7723

7 0.7741

8 0.7896

9 0.8322

10 0.9156

11 1.053

12 1.258

AVERAGE PERCENTAGE REDUCTION IN RMSE FROM CONCURRENT ADJUSTMENT 34.07

(*) IN UNITS OF VAR(A)

DECOMPOSITION OF THE SERIES: RECENT ESTIMATES

---------------------------------------------

PERIOD SERIES TREND-CYCLE ADJUSTED

ESTIMATE STANDARD ERROR ESTIMATE STANDARD ERROR

TOTAL OF REVISION TOTAL OF REVISION

-24 2.155 2.146 0.2295E-02 0.1073E-25 2.147 0.2517E-02 0.2135E-25

-23 2.131 2.137 0.2295E-02 0.7447E-24 2.137 0.2517E-02 0.1482E-23

-22 2.131 2.129 0.2295E-02 0.5170E-22 2.129 0.2517E-02 0.1029E-21

-21 2.131 2.121 0.2295E-02 0.3589E-20 2.120 0.2517E-02 0.7144E-20

-20 2.105 2.112 0.2295E-02 0.2491E-18 2.113 0.2517E-02 0.4959E-18

-19 2.105 2.104 0.2295E-02 0.1730E-16 2.104 0.2517E-02 0.3443E-16

-18 2.105 2.095 0.2295E-02 0.1201E-14 2.096 0.2517E-02 0.2390E-14

-17 2.066 2.087 0.2295E-02 0.8335E-13 2.086 0.2517E-02 0.1659E-12

-16 2.066 2.078 0.2295E-02 0.5786E-11 2.078 0.2517E-02 0.1152E-10

-15 2.066 2.070 0.2295E-02 0.4017E-09 2.069 0.2517E-02 0.7995E-09

-14 2.066 2.062 0.2295E-02 0.2788E-07 2.063 0.2517E-02 0.5550E-07

-13 2.066 2.054 0.2295E-02 0.1936E-05 2.054 0.2517E-02 0.3853E-05

-12 2.066 2.045 0.2299E-02 0.1344E-03 2.046 0.2531E-02 0.2675E-03

-11 2.029 2.037 0.2331E-02 0.4056E-03 2.036 0.2652E-02 0.8344E-03

-10 2.029 2.028 0.2377E-02 0.6193E-03 2.028 0.2693E-02 0.9567E-03

-9 2.029 2.020 0.2408E-02 0.7274E-03 2.020 0.2720E-02 0.1030E-02

-8 2.005 2.012 0.2421E-02 0.7699E-03 2.012 0.2731E-02 0.1060E-02

-7 2.005 2.004 0.2422E-02 0.7740E-03 2.004 0.2732E-02 0.1063E-02

-6 2.005 1.995 0.2426E-02 0.7858E-03 1.996 0.2736E-02 0.1072E-02

-5 1.960 1.987 0.2458E-02 0.8789E-03 1.987 0.2764E-02 0.1142E-02

-4 1.960 1.979 0.2554E-02 0.1120E-02 1.979 0.2850E-02 0.1337E-02

-3 1.960 1.971 0.2757E-02 0.1528E-02 1.970 0.3033E-02 0.1693E-02

-2 1.972 1.964 0.3104E-02 0.2090E-02 1.964 0.3352E-02 0.2213E-02

-1 1.972 1.956 0.3618E-02 0.2796E-02 1.956 0.3829E-02 0.2886E-02

0 1.972 1.948 0.4377E-02 0.3726E-02 1.948 0.4349E-02 0.3546E-02

STANDARD ERROR OF 0.2295E-02 0.2517E-02

FINAL ESTIMATOR

PERIOD SEASONAL

ESTIMATE STANDARD ERROR

TOTAL OF REVISION

-24 0.8088E-02 0.2517E-02 0.2135E-25

-23 -0.6157E-02 0.2517E-02 0.1482E-23

-22 0.1733E-02 0.2517E-02 0.1029E-21

-21 0.1030E-01 0.2517E-02 0.7144E-20

-20 -0.7388E-02 0.2517E-02 0.4959E-18

-19 0.1185E-02 0.2517E-02 0.3443E-16

-18 0.9178E-02 0.2517E-02 0.2390E-14

-17 -0.1992E-01 0.2517E-02 0.1659E-12

-16 -0.1195E-01 0.2517E-02 0.1152E-10

-15 -0.3131E-02 0.2517E-02 0.7995E-09

-14 0.3175E-02 0.2517E-02 0.5550E-07

-13 0.1197E-01 0.2517E-02 0.3853E-05

-12 0.1984E-01 0.2531E-02 0.2675E-03

-11 -0.7044E-02 0.2652E-02 0.8344E-03

-10 0.6793E-03 0.2693E-02 0.9567E-03

-9 0.8936E-02 0.2720E-02 0.1030E-02

-8 -0.7083E-02 0.2731E-02 0.1060E-02

-7 0.1119E-02 0.2732E-02 0.1063E-02

-6 0.9015E-02 0.2736E-02 0.1072E-02

-5 -0.2675E-01 0.2764E-02 0.1142E-02

-4 -0.1890E-01 0.2850E-02 0.1337E-02

-3 -0.1034E-01 0.3033E-02 0.1693E-02

-2 0.7941E-02 0.3352E-02 0.2213E-02

-1 0.1653E-01 0.3829E-02 0.2886E-02

0 0.2465E-01 0.4349E-02 0.3546E-02

STANDARD ERROR OF 0.2517E-02

FINAL ESTIMATOR

DECOMPOSITION OF THE SERIES: FORECAST

---------------------------------------------

PERIOD SERIES TREND-CYCLE ADJUSTED

FORECAST S.E. FORECAST STANDARD ERROR FORECAST STANDARD ERROR

TOTAL OF REVISION TOTAL OF REVISION

1 1.934 0.3755E-02 1.940 0.3255E-02 0.2951E-02 1.939 0.5668E-02 0.5078E-02

2 1.934 0.5310E-02 1.932 0.3996E-02 0.3752E-02 1.931 0.6864E-02 0.6386E-02

3 1.933 0.6503E-02 1.923 0.4781E-02 0.4579E-02 1.923 0.8146E-02 0.7747E-02

4 1.908 0.7509E-02 1.915 0.5610E-02 0.5439E-02 1.914 0.9507E-02 0.9167E-02

5 1.908 0.8395E-02 1.907 0.6479E-02 0.6332E-02 1.905 0.1094E-01 0.1065E-01

6 1.907 0.9197E-02 1.898 0.7388E-02 0.7260E-02 1.897 0.1245E-01 0.1219E-01

7 1.862 0.9934E-02 1.890 0.8336E-02 0.8222E-02 1.888 0.1402E-01 0.1379E-01

8 1.861 0.1062E-01 1.881 0.9319E-02 0.9217E-02 1.879 0.1565E-01 0.1545E-01

9 1.861 0.1126E-01 1.873 0.1034E-01 0.1025E-01 1.870 0.1734E-01 0.1716E-01

10 1.872 0.1187E-01 1.864 0.1139E-01 0.1131E-01 1.861 0.1910E-01 0.1893E-01

11 1.872 0.1245E-01 1.855 0.1248E-01 0.1240E-01 1.852 0.2091E-01 0.2075E-01

12 1.871 0.1301E-01 1.847 0.1360E-01 0.1353E-01 1.843 0.2277E-01 0.2263E-01

13 1.833 0.1718E-01 1.838 0.1475E-01 0.1468E-01 1.834 0.2469E-01 0.2456E-01

14 1.831 0.2052E-01 1.829 0.1593E-01 0.1587E-01 1.825 0.2666E-01 0.2654E-01

15 1.830 0.2339E-01 1.820 0.1714E-01 0.1708E-01 1.815 0.2867E-01 0.2856E-01

16 1.804 0.2595E-01 1.811 0.1838E-01 0.1833E-01 1.806 0.3074E-01 0.3064E-01

17 1.803 0.2827E-01 1.801 0.1964E-01 0.1960E-01 1.797 0.3286E-01 0.3276E-01

18 1.801 0.3042E-01 1.792 0.2094E-01 0.2090E-01 1.787 0.3502E-01 0.3493E-01

19 1.755 0.3242E-01 1.783 0.2226E-01 0.2222E-01 1.777 0.3723E-01 0.3714E-01

20 1.753 0.3431E-01 1.773 0.2361E-01 0.2357E-01 1.768 0.3948E-01 0.3940E-01

21 1.752 0.3610E-01 1.764 0.2499E-01 0.2495E-01 1.758 0.4177E-01 0.4170E-01

22 1.762 0.3781E-01 1.754 0.2639E-01 0.2635E-01 1.748 0.4411E-01 0.4404E-01

23 1.761 0.3944E-01 1.744 0.2782E-01 0.2778E-01 1.738 0.4650E-01 0.4643E-01

24 1.760 0.4101E-01 1.735 0.2927E-01 0.2923E-01 1.728 0.4892E-01 0.4885E-01

PERIOD SEASONAL

FORECAST STANDARD ERROR

TOTAL OF REVISION

1 -0.5175E-02 0.5086E-02 0.4420E-02

2 0.2301E-02 0.5586E-02 0.4987E-02

3 0.9851E-02 0.5868E-02 0.5301E-02

4 -0.6485E-02 0.6006E-02 0.5453E-02

5 0.1213E-02 0.6054E-02 0.5506E-02

6 0.8986E-02 0.6060E-02 0.5512E-02

7 -0.2800E-01 0.6065E-02 0.5518E-02

8 -0.2008E-01 0.6115E-02 0.5573E-02

9 -0.1209E-01 0.6251E-02 0.5722E-02

10 0.8327E-02 0.6508E-02 0.6002E-02

11 0.1647E-01 0.6911E-02 0.6436E-02

12 0.2469E-01 0.7472E-02 0.7035E-02

13 -0.5175E-02 0.8021E-02 0.7616E-02

14 0.2301E-02 0.8347E-02 0.7959E-02

15 0.9851E-02 0.8538E-02 0.8159E-02

16 -0.6485E-02 0.8634E-02 0.8259E-02

17 0.1213E-02 0.8667E-02 0.8294E-02

18 0.8986E-02 0.8671E-02 0.8298E-02

19 -0.2800E-01 0.8675E-02 0.8302E-02

20 -0.2008E-01 0.8710E-02 0.8339E-02

21 -0.1209E-01 0.8806E-02 0.8439E-02

22 0.8327E-02 0.8990E-02 0.8631E-02

23 0.1647E-01 0.9286E-02 0.8938E-02

24 0.2469E-01 0.9711E-02 0.9379E-02

DUE TO THE APPROXIMATION, THE S.E.

OF THE COMPONENT MAY BE UNRELIABLE

CONFIDENCE INTERVAL AROUND A SEASONAL FACTOR OF 100

---------------------------------------------------

FINAL ESTIMATOR CONCURRENT ESTIMATOR

95%

CONFIDENCE 99.51 100.5 99.15 100.9

INTERVAL

70%

CONFIDENCE 99.74 100.3 99.55 100.5

INTERVAL

SAMPLE MEANS

------------

COMPLETE PERIOD LAST THREE YEARS

SERIES 2.323 2.092

TREND-CYCLE 2.323 2.091

ADJUSTED 2.323 2.091

SEASONAL -0.9032E-04 0.8495E-03

STANDARD ERROR OF THE RATES OF GROWTH ESTIMATES

-----------------------------------------------

(IN POINTS OF NONANNUALIZED PERCENT GROWTH)

(LINEAR APPROXIMATION)

1. PERIOD TO PERIOD RATE OF GROWTH OF THE SERIES (T11)

TREND-CYCLE SEASONALLY ADJ. SERIES

CONCURRENT ESTIMATOR 0.160 0.248

1 - PERIOD REVISION 0.148 0.247

2 - PERIOD REVISION 0.141 0.243

3 - PERIOD REVISION 0.136 0.240

4 - PERIOD REVISION 0.131 0.237

5 - PERIOD REVISION 0.128 0.235

6 - PERIOD REVISION 0.125 0.234

7 - PERIOD REVISION 0.123 0.233

8 - PERIOD REVISION 0.122 0.232

9 - PERIOD REVISION 0.121 0.232

10 - PERIOD REVISION 0.121 0.232

11 - PERIOD REVISION 0.121 0.230

12 - PERIOD REVISION 0.118 0.204

FINAL ESTIMATOR 0.117 0.202

2. RATE OF GROWTH OF A 3 - PERIOD (CENTERED) MOVING AVERAGE (T31)

TREND-CYCLE SEASONALLY ADJ. SERIES

CONCURRENT ESTIMATOR 0.407 0.460

1 - PERIOD REVISION 0.365 0.404

2 - PERIOD REVISION 0.337 0.391

3 - PERIOD REVISION 0.316 0.373

4 - PERIOD REVISION 0.299 0.359

5 - PERIOD REVISION 0.285 0.347

6 - PERIOD REVISION 0.274 0.338

7 - PERIOD REVISION 0.266 0.332

8 - PERIOD REVISION 0.261 0.328

9 - PERIOD REVISION 0.258 0.326

10 - PERIOD REVISION 0.258 0.321

11 - PERIOD REVISION 0.257 0.315

12 - PERIOD REVISION 0.252 0.311

FINAL ESTIMATOR 0.249 0.300

3. ACCUMULATED RATE OVER THE LAST DECEMBER (ANNUAL GROWTH)

CONCURRENT ESTIMATOR FINAL ESTIMATOR

TREND-CYCLE SEASONALLY ADJ. SERIES TREND-CYCLE SEASONALLY ADJ. SERIES

JANUARY 1.915 2.970 1.410 2.425

FEBRUARY 1.671 1.995 1.194 1.565

MARCH 1.462 1.615 0.996 1.198

APRIL 1.300 1.388 0.853 0.986

MAY 1.164 1.221 0.743 0.839

JUNE 1.045 1.085 0.653 0.728

JULY 0.937 0.966 0.578 0.638

AUGUST 0.837 0.860 0.513 0.563

SEPTEMBER 0.744 0.762 0.456 0.500

OCTOBER 0.655 0.671 0.406 0.445

NOVEMBER 0.572 0.587 0.363 0.399

DECEMBER 0.503 0.483 0.328 0.344

(CENTERED) ESTIMATOR OF THE PRESENT

RATE OF ANNUAL GROWTH, T(1 12)

(LINEAR APPROXIMATION)

STANDARD TREND-CYCLE SEAS. ADJ. ORIGINAL

ERROR SERIES SERIES

CONCURRENT 1.438 1.454 1.639

ESTIMATOR

FINAL ESTI- 0.328 0.344 0.000

MATOR

SERIES OF LEVELS (INCLUDING FORECASTS) HAVE

BEEN CORRECTED FOR BIAS IN OVERALL LEVEL.

ANNUAL AVERAGES

---------------

(including forecasting period)

YEAR SERIES ADJUSTED TREND-CYCLE

SERIES

1999 11.36 11.35 11.34

2000 11.51 11.49 11.49

2001 11.55 11.55 11.56

2002 11.63 11.63 11.63

2003 11.53 11.52 11.52

2004 10.99 10.98 10.98

2005 10.23 10.24 10.24

2006 9.512 9.523 9.524

2007 8.735 8.736 8.736

2008 7.900 7.897 7.897

2009 7.156 7.154 7.154

2010 6.461 6.462 6.462

2011 5.772 5.773 5.773

FULL PERIOD 9.564 9.562 9.562

AVERAGE VALUE OF ABSOLUTE

DIFFERENCES IN ANNUAL AVERAGES :

(in % of average level)

ADJUSTED SERIES : 0.661E-01

TREND-CYCLE : 0.713E-01

FOURTH PART:

ESTIMATES OF THE COMPONENTS (LEVELS)

ORIGINAL SERIES

---------------

(Corrected by TRAMO)

YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

1998 11.000 11.000 11.000 11.100 11.100 11.100 11.200 11.200 11.200

1999 11.400 11.400 11.400 11.195 11.195 11.195 11.288 11.288 11.288 11.568 11.568 11.568

2000 11.541 11.541 11.541 11.342 11.342 11.342 11.334 11.334 11.334 11.807 11.807 11.807

2001 11.587 11.587 11.587 11.432 11.432 11.432 11.325 11.325 11.325 11.864 11.864 11.864

2002 11.648 11.648 11.648 11.557 11.557 11.557 11.445 11.445 11.445 11.858 11.858 11.858

2003 11.621 11.621 11.621 11.502 11.502 11.502 11.384 11.384 11.384 11.621 11.621 11.621

2004 11.193 11.193 11.193 10.983 10.983 10.983 10.806 10.806 10.806 10.966 10.966 10.966

2005 10.434 10.434 10.434 10.273 10.273 10.273 10.031 10.031 10.031 10.164 10.164 10.164

2006 9.740 9.740 9.740 9.634 9.634 9.634 9.337 9.337 9.337 9.337 9.337 9.337

2007 9.051 9.051 9.051 8.840 8.840 8.840 8.630 8.630 8.630 8.419 8.419 8.419

2008 8.209 8.209 8.209 7.893 7.893 7.893 7.893 7.893 7.893 7.605 7.605 7.605

2009 7.425 7.425 7.425 7.099 7.099 7.099 7.187 7.187 7.187

STOCHASTIC COMPONENT

--------------------

SEASONAL FACTORS (X 100)

YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

1998 99.32 99.15 98.98 99.70 99.54 99.32 100.33 100.10 100.02

1999 101.29 101.21 101.04 99.09 98.92 98.80 99.33 99.22 99.08 101.42 101.30 101.17

2000 100.88 100.77 100.66 98.89 98.80 98.72 98.58 98.51 98.48 102.35 102.33 102.22

2001 100.56 100.45 100.41 99.06 99.02 98.95 98.11 98.03 98.04 102.35 102.36 102.31

2002 100.36 100.32 100.31 99.35 99.36 99.34 98.37 98.37 98.41 101.92 101.98 102.10

2003 99.87 100.03 100.17 99.18 99.38 99.60 98.71 98.99 99.24 101.79 102.11 102.47

2004 99.18 99.58 99.98 98.78 99.21 99.71 98.58 99.11 99.64 101.75 102.32 102.84

2005 98.75 99.26 99.85 98.93 99.51 100.10 98.32 98.90 99.53 101.24 101.89 102.48

2006 98.88 99.46 100.14 99.38 100.08 100.66 98.44 99.03 99.74 100.22 100.96 101.69

2007 99.19 99.94 100.70 99.06 99.85 100.58 99.27 100.02 100.81 99.38 100.17 101.03

2008 99.26 100.12 100.92 98.03 98.81 99.68 100.32 101.20 102.00 99.30 100.07 100.89

2009 99.29 100.11 100.90 97.36 98.12 98.97 100.79 101.66 102.49

STANDARD ERROR OF SEASONAL FACTORS (X 100)

YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

1998 0.42 0.37 0.33 0.30 0.28 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27

1999 0.27 0.27 0.26 0.25 0.24 0.24 0.25 0.24 0.24 0.25 0.25 0.25

2000 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.25 0.25 0.25

2001 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.25 0.25 0.25

2002 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.25 0.25 0.25

2003 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.24 0.25 0.25 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.25 0.25 0.25

2004 0.24 0.25 0.25 0.24 0.24 0.25 0.24 0.24 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25

2005 0.24 0.24 0.25 0.24 0.25 0.25 0.24 0.24 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25

2006 0.24 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.24 0.24 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25

2007 0.24 0.25 0.25 0.24 0.25 0.25 0.24 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25

2008 0.24 0.25 0.25 0.24 0.24 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.26 0.26 0.27

2009 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.26 0.27 0.29 0.33 0.38 0.44

TREND-CYCLE

YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

1998 11.075 11.095 11.114 11.133 11.151 11.165 11.175 11.189 11.212

1999 11.240 11.264 11.282 11.299 11.317 11.337 11.358 11.377 11.392 11.407 11.420 11.432

2000 11.442 11.453 11.462 11.471 11.480 11.489 11.497 11.506 11.516 11.529 11.538 11.539

2001 11.535 11.534 11.538 11.541 11.545 11.548 11.549 11.553 11.563 11.578 11.590 11.597

2002 11.605 11.611 11.618 11.626 11.631 11.633 11.634 11.634 11.633 11.632 11.628 11.625

2003 11.625 11.618 11.606 11.592 11.574 11.552 11.529 11.500 11.464 11.423 11.381 11.337

2004 11.289 11.239 11.186 11.128 11.071 11.016 10.960 10.903 10.843 10.780 10.717 10.650

2005 10.578 10.511 10.448 10.386 10.324 10.263 10.202 10.143 10.086 10.032 9.975 9.915

2006 9.853 9.793 9.737 9.684 9.627 9.562 9.494 9.428 9.368 9.309 9.248 9.184

2007 9.121 9.056 8.990 8.923 8.854 8.780 8.703 8.628 8.554 8.478 8.405 8.336

2008 8.268 8.199 8.129 8.057 7.989 7.924 7.863 7.799 7.733 7.665 7.600 7.538

2009 7.477 7.416 7.356 7.294 7.235 7.179 7.125 7.069 7.012

STANDARD ERROR OF TREND-CYCLE

X 10.0D-1

YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

1998 0.475 0.393 0.338 0.301 0.279 0.269 0.266 0.266 0.266

1999 0.265 0.262 0.258 0.255 0.255 0.255 0.255 0.256 0.256 0.257 0.257 0.257

2000 0.257 0.258 0.258 0.258 0.258 0.258 0.259 0.259 0.259 0.259 0.260 0.260

2001 0.259 0.259 0.260 0.260 0.260 0.260 0.260 0.260 0.260 0.260 0.261 0.261

2002 0.261 0.261 0.261 0.262 0.262 0.262 0.262 0.262 0.262 0.262 0.262 0.261

2003 0.261 0.261 0.261 0.261 0.260 0.260 0.259 0.259 0.258 0.257 0.256 0.255

2004 0.254 0.253 0.252 0.250 0.249 0.248 0.247 0.245 0.244 0.242 0.241 0.240

2005 0.238 0.236 0.235 0.234 0.232 0.231 0.229 0.228 0.227 0.226 0.224 0.223

2006 0.222 0.220 0.219 0.218 0.217 0.215 0.214 0.212 0.211 0.209 0.208 0.207

2007 0.205 0.204 0.202 0.201 0.199 0.197 0.196 0.194 0.192 0.191 0.189 0.187

2008 0.186 0.184 0.183 0.181 0.180 0.178 0.177 0.175 0.174 0.175 0.177 0.178

2009 0.177 0.176 0.175 0.176 0.181 0.194 0.217 0.251 0.301

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SERIES

YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

1998 11.075 11.095 11.114 11.134 11.151 11.176 11.164 11.188 11.197

1999 11.255 11.264 11.282 11.298 11.317 11.331 11.364 11.377 11.393 11.406 11.420 11.435

2000 11.440 11.453 11.465 11.469 11.480 11.489 11.497 11.506 11.508 11.537 11.538 11.551

2001 11.522 11.534 11.539 11.540 11.545 11.554 11.543 11.552 11.551 11.591 11.590 11.595

2002 11.606 11.611 11.612 11.632 11.631 11.633 11.635 11.634 11.630 11.634 11.628 11.614

2003 11.636 11.618 11.601 11.597 11.574 11.549 11.532 11.500 11.471 11.416 11.381 11.340

2004 11.285 11.239 11.195 11.119 11.071 11.015 10.962 10.903 10.846 10.777 10.717 10.663

2005 10.565 10.511 10.449 10.385 10.324 10.263 10.202 10.143 10.078 10.039 9.975 9.917

2006 9.851 9.793 9.726 9.695 9.627 9.571 9.485 9.428 9.361 9.316 9.248 9.181

2007 9.125 9.056 8.988 8.924 8.854 8.789 8.693 8.628 8.561 8.472 8.405 8.333

2008 8.270 8.199 8.134 8.052 7.988 7.918 7.868 7.800 7.738 7.659 7.600 7.537

2009 7.478 7.416 7.358 7.292 7.235 7.173 7.131 7.070 7.012

STANDARD ERROR OF SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SERIES

X 10.0D-1

YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

1998 0.472 0.416 0.365 0.331 0.311 0.303 0.299 0.300 0.300

1999 0.300 0.297 0.293 0.280 0.279 0.280 0.280 0.281 0.281 0.281 0.282 0.282

2000 0.282 0.282 0.283 0.283 0.283 0.283 0.284 0.284 0.284 0.285 0.285 0.285

2001 0.284 0.285 0.285 0.285 0.285 0.285 0.285 0.285 0.285 0.286 0.286 0.286

2002 0.286 0.286 0.286 0.287 0.287 0.287 0.287 0.287 0.287 0.287 0.287 0.286

2003 0.287 0.287 0.286 0.286 0.285 0.285 0.284 0.284 0.283 0.282 0.281 0.280

2004 0.278 0.277 0.276 0.274 0.273 0.272 0.270 0.269 0.268 0.266 0.264 0.263

2005 0.261 0.259 0.258 0.256 0.255 0.253 0.252 0.250 0.249 0.248 0.246 0.245

2006 0.243 0.242 0.240 0.239 0.237 0.236 0.234 0.233 0.231 0.230 0.228 0.226

2007 0.225 0.223 0.222 0.220 0.218 0.217 0.214 0.213 0.211 0.209 0.207 0.206

2008 0.204 0.202 0.201 0.199 0.197 0.195 0.194 0.192 0.192 0.199 0.201 0.201

2009 0.200 0.199 0.197 0.198 0.202 0.213 0.234 0.265 0.299

IRREGULAR FACTORS (X 100)

YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

1998 100.01 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.10 99.90 100.00 99.87

1999 100.13 100.00 100.00 99.99 100.00 99.95 100.05 100.00 100.01 99.99 100.00 100.02

2000 99.98 100.00 100.02 99.98 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 99.93 100.07 100.00 100.11

2001 99.89 100.00 100.01 99.99 100.00 100.05 99.95 100.00 99.89 100.11 100.00 99.98

2002 100.02 100.00 99.95 100.05 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 99.98 100.02 100.00 99.90

2003 100.10 100.00 99.96 100.04 100.00 99.97 100.03 100.00 100.06 99.94 100.00 100.03

2004 99.97 100.00 100.08 99.92 100.00 99.99 100.01 100.00 100.03 99.97 100.00 100.12

2005 99.88 100.00 100.01 99.99 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 99.93 100.07 100.00 100.03

2006 99.97 100.00 99.89 100.11 100.00 100.10 99.90 100.00 99.93 100.07 100.00 99.96

2007 100.04 100.00 99.98 100.02 100.00 100.11 99.89 100.00 100.08 99.92 100.00 99.97

2008 100.03 100.00 100.06 99.94 100.00 99.92 100.08 100.00 100.07 99.92 100.00 99.99

2009 100.01 100.00 100.04 99.96 100.00 99.92 100.08 100.00 100.01

FORECAST OF COMPONENTS (LEVELS)

-------------------------------

PERIOD SERIES TREND-CYCLE ADJUSTED

FORECAST S.E. FORECAST S.E. FORECAST S.E.

1 6.920 0.2546E-01 6.958 0.2218E-01 5.925 0.3863E-01

2 6.916 0.3599E-01 6.902 0.2700E-01 5.914 0.4639E-01

3 6.913 0.4406E-01 6.845 0.3204E-01 5.903 0.5459E-01

4 6.743 0.4962E-01 6.788 0.3728E-01 5.749 0.6317E-01

5 6.739 0.5545E-01 6.732 0.4269E-01 5.738 0.7209E-01

6 6.736 0.6071E-01 6.676 0.4826E-01 5.727 0.8129E-01

7 6.436 0.6265E-01 6.619 0.5397E-01 5.463 0.9076E-01

8 6.433 0.6695E-01 6.563 0.5982E-01 5.453 0.1005

9 6.430 0.7098E-01 6.507 0.6577E-01 5.442 0.1103

10 6.503 0.7567E-01 6.451 0.7183E-01 5.494 0.1204

11 6.500 0.7933E-01 6.395 0.7798E-01 5.483 0.1306

12 6.497 0.8282E-01 6.339 0.8420E-01 5.472 0.1410

13 6.249 0.1052 6.282 0.9050E-01 5.255 0.1515

14 6.241 0.1256 6.226 0.9685E-01 5.239 0.1621

15 6.232 0.1429 6.170 0.1032 5.222 0.1727

16 6.073 0.1545 6.114 0.1097 5.080 0.1835

17 6.065 0.1681 6.058 0.1162 5.064 0.1943

18 6.057 0.1807 6.002 0.1226 5.048 0.2051

19 5.781 0.1838 5.947 0.1292 4.809 0.2160

20 5.774 0.1943 5.891 0.1357 4.794 0.2268

21 5.766 0.2042 5.835 0.1422 4.778 0.2377

22 5.826 0.2161 5.779 0.1487 4.818 0.2486

23 5.818 0.2251 5.723 0.1552 4.802 0.2595

24 5.811 0.2338 5.668 0.1617 4.786 0.2703

PERIOD SEASONAL FACTORS

FORECAST S.E.

1 99.48 0.4959

2 100.2 0.5487

3 101.0 0.5807

4 99.35 0.5848

5 100.1 0.5941

6 100.9 0.5992

7 97.24 0.5780

8 98.01 0.5874

9 98.80 0.6052

10 100.8 0.6431

11 101.7 0.6885

12 102.5 0.7506

13 99.48 0.7820

14 100.2 0.8199

15 101.0 0.8450

16 99.35 0.8406

17 100.1 0.8505

18 100.9 0.8575

19 97.24 0.8267

20 98.01 0.8366

21 98.80 0.8526

22 100.8 0.8884

23 101.7 0.9252

24 102.5 0.9755

THE APPROXIMATION WILL LIKELY INDUCE

NOZERO IRREGULAR FORECASTS,

AND HENCE THE FORECAST OF THE ADJUSTED

SERIES WILL NOT BE THAT OF THE TREND-CYCLE

DETERMINISTIC COMPONENT (from TRAMO)

------------------------------------

LEVEL SHIFT (X100)

YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

1998 100.000 100.000 100.000 100.000 100.000 100.000 100.000 100.000 100.000

1999 100.000 100.000 100.000 107.192 107.192 107.192 107.192 107.192 107.192 107.192 107.192 107.192

2000 100.513 100.513 100.513 100.513 100.513 100.513 98.820 98.820 98.820 90.620 90.620 90.620

2001 90.620 90.620 90.620 92.719 92.719 92.719 92.719 92.719 92.719 92.719 92.719 92.719

2002 92.719 92.719 92.719 89.124 89.124 89.124 89.124 89.124 89.124 84.330 84.330 84.330

2003 84.330 84.330 84.330 84.330 84.330 84.330 84.330 84.330 84.330 84.330 84.330 84.330

2004 95.600 95.600 95.600 95.600 95.600 95.600 97.165 97.165 97.165 93.928 93.928 93.928

2005 93.928 93.928 93.928 96.367 96.367 96.367 100.683 100.683 100.683 94.453 94.453 94.453

2006 94.453 94.453 94.453 94.453 94.453 94.453 93.180 93.180 93.180 93.180 93.180 93.180

2007 95.018 95.018 95.018 95.018 95.018 95.018 95.018 95.018 95.018 95.018 95.018 95.018

2008 95.018 95.018 95.018 95.018 95.018 95.018 95.018 95.018 95.018 103.884 103.884 103.884

2009 118.525 118.525 118.525 129.595 129.595 129.595 134.962 134.962 134.962

FINAL DECOMPOSITION

-------------------

ORIGINAL UNCORRECTED SERIES (from TRAMO)

YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

1998 11.000 11.000 11.000 11.100 11.100 11.100 11.200 11.200 11.200

1999 11.400 11.400 11.400 12.000 12.000 12.000 12.100 12.100 12.100 12.400 12.400 12.400

2000 11.600 11.600 11.600 11.400 11.400 11.400 11.200 11.200 11.200 10.700 10.700 10.700

2001 10.500 10.500 10.500 10.600 10.600 10.600 10.500 10.500 10.500 11.000 11.000 11.000

2002 10.800 10.800 10.800 10.300 10.300 10.300 10.200 10.200 10.200 10.000 10.000 10.000

2003 9.800 9.800 9.800 9.700 9.700 9.700 9.600 9.600 9.600 9.800 9.800 9.800

2004 10.700 10.700 10.700 10.500 10.500 10.500 10.500 10.500 10.500 10.300 10.300 10.300

2005 9.800 9.800 9.800 9.900 9.900 9.900 10.100 10.100 10.100 9.600 9.600 9.600

2006 9.200 9.200 9.200 9.100 9.100 9.100 8.700 8.700 8.700 8.700 8.700 8.700

2007 8.600 8.600 8.600 8.400 8.400 8.400 8.200 8.200 8.200 8.000 8.000 8.000

2008 7.800 7.800 7.800 7.500 7.500 7.500 7.500 7.500 7.500 7.900 7.900 7.900

2009 8.800 8.800 8.800 9.200 9.200 9.200 9.700 9.700 9.700

FINAL COMPONENT

---------------

FINAL SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SERIES

YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

1998 11.075 11.095 11.114 11.134 11.151 11.176 11.164 11.188 11.197

1999 11.255 11.264 11.282 12.111 12.131 12.146 12.182 12.195 12.212 12.226 12.241 12.257

2000 11.498 11.511 11.524 11.527 11.539 11.548 11.361 11.370 11.372 10.455 10.456 10.468

2001 10.441 10.452 10.457 10.700 10.705 10.713 10.702 10.711 10.710 10.747 10.746 10.751

2002 10.761 10.765 10.767 10.367 10.366 10.368 10.369 10.369 10.365 9.811 9.806 9.794

2003 9.813 9.797 9.783 9.780 9.761 9.739 9.725 9.698 9.673 9.627 9.597 9.563

2004 10.788 10.745 10.702 10.630 10.584 10.530 10.651 10.594 10.538 10.122 10.067 10.016

2005 9.924 9.873 9.814 10.008 9.949 9.890 10.272 10.212 10.147 9.482 9.422 9.367

2006 9.304 9.250 9.187 9.157 9.093 9.040 8.838 8.785 8.722 8.681 8.617 8.555

2007 8.670 8.605 8.540 8.480 8.413 8.352 8.260 8.198 8.134 8.050 7.986 7.918

2008 7.858 7.791 7.729 7.651 7.590 7.524 7.476 7.411 7.353 7.956 7.895 7.830

2009 8.863 8.790 8.721 9.450 9.376 9.296 9.624 9.541 9.464

FINAL TREND-CYCLE

YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

1998 11.075 11.095 11.114 11.133 11.151 11.165 11.175 11.189 11.212

1999 11.240 11.264 11.282 12.112 12.131 12.152 12.175 12.195 12.212 12.227 12.241 12.254

2000 11.501 11.511 11.521 11.530 11.539 11.548 11.362 11.370 11.380 10.448 10.456 10.456

2001 10.453 10.453 10.456 10.701 10.705 10.707 10.708 10.711 10.721 10.735 10.746 10.753

2002 10.760 10.766 10.772 10.362 10.366 10.368 10.369 10.369 10.368 9.809 9.806 9.804

2003 9.803 9.797 9.787 9.776 9.761 9.742 9.722 9.698 9.668 9.633 9.597 9.560

2004 10.792 10.745 10.694 10.638 10.584 10.532 10.650 10.594 10.535 10.125 10.066 10.003

2005 9.936 9.873 9.814 10.008 9.949 9.890 10.272 10.212 10.155 9.475 9.422 9.365

2006 9.307 9.250 9.197 9.147 9.093 9.032 8.846 8.785 8.729 8.674 8.617 8.558

2007 8.667 8.605 8.542 8.478 8.413 8.343 8.269 8.198 8.128 8.056 7.987 7.921

2008 7.856 7.791 7.724 7.656 7.591 7.529 7.471 7.411 7.347 7.962 7.895 7.831

2009 8.862 8.790 8.718 9.453 9.376 9.303 9.616 9.541 9.464

FINAL SEASONAL FACTORS

YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

1998 99.320 99.145 98.977 99.697 99.539 99.320 100.326 100.104 100.023

1999 101.292 101.209 101.044 99.087 98.921 98.798 99.330 99.219 99.079 101.421 101.295 101.167

2000 100.883 100.769 100.662 98.895 98.799 98.720 98.579 98.507 98.484 102.345 102.335 102.217

2001 100.561 100.455 100.412 99.065 99.020 98.945 98.111 98.028 98.040 102.355 102.363 102.315

2002 100.360 100.321 100.310 99.354 99.360 99.345 98.368 98.375 98.406 101.922 101.981 102.103

2003 99.868 100.026 100.170 99.185 99.380 99.600 98.711 98.989 99.242 101.792 102.111 102.475

2004 99.182 99.584 99.981 98.775 99.207 99.711 98.583 99.114 99.638 101.754 102.319 102.837

2005 98.754 99.265 99.853 98.925 99.509 100.100 98.323 98.904 99.535 101.242 101.891 102.484

2006 98.879 99.464 100.144 99.378 100.075 100.659 98.439 99.033 99.745 100.223 100.962 101.695

2007 99.190 99.940 100.701 99.060 99.848 100.579 99.272 100.024 100.809 99.383 100.171 101.032

2008 99.261 100.116 100.919 98.025 98.809 99.685 100.315 101.202 102.000 99.295 100.065 100.895

2009 99.291 100.109 100.903 97.357 98.125 98.968 100.794 101.664 102.492

SINCE SEATS HAS RE-ESTIMATED AND CHANGED THE MODEL,

THE FORECAST OF THE ORIGINAL (UNCORRECTED) SERIES

WILL DIFFER FROM THAT IN TRAMO.

FORECAST OF FINAL COMPONENT

ORIGINAL SEASONALLY TREND-CYCLE SEASONAL

(UNCORRECTED) ADJUSTED FACTORS

SERIES SERIES

9.337 9.386 9.386 99.48

9.329 9.307 9.307 100.2

9.320 9.229 9.229 101.0

9.092 9.151 9.151 99.35

9.083 9.073 9.073 100.1

9.075 8.994 8.994 100.9

8.670 8.916 8.916 97.24

8.662 8.838 8.838 98.01

8.654 8.760 8.760 98.80

8.754 8.682 8.682 100.8

8.746 8.604 8.604 101.7

8.738 8.526 8.526 102.5

8.404 8.448 8.448 99.48

8.389 8.370 8.370 100.2

8.374 8.292 8.292 101.0

8.161 8.215 8.215 99.35

8.147 8.137 8.137 100.1

8.132 8.060 8.060 100.9

7.762 7.982 7.982 97.24

7.748 7.905 7.905 98.01

7.734 7.828 7.828 98.80

7.816 7.752 7.752 100.8

7.802 7.675 7.675 101.7

7.789 7.599 7.599 102.5

THE FORECAST OF THE IRREGULAR ABSORBS

THE EFFECT OF THE APPROXIMATION.

RATE OF GROWTH

--------------

(Period To Period; In Percentage Points)

ORIGINAL SERIES (from TRAMO)

YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

2007 0.00 -2.44 0.00 0.00

2008 -2.50 0.00 0.00 -3.85 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.33 0.00 0.00

2009 11.39 0.00 0.00 4.55 0.00 0.00 5.43 0.00 0.00 -3.74 -0.09 -0.09

2010 -2.45 -0.09 -0.09 -4.47 -0.09 -0.09 1.15 -0.09 -0.09

FINAL SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SERIES

YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

2007 -0.78 -1.04 -0.79 -0.85

2008 -0.76 -0.85 -0.80 -1.01 -0.79 -0.88 -0.63 -0.88 -0.78 8.20 -0.77 -0.82

2009 13.19 -0.82 -0.79 8.35 -0.78 -0.85 3.52 -0.86 -0.81 -0.83 -0.83 -0.84

2010 -0.85 -0.86 -0.86 -0.87 -0.88 -0.88 -0.89 -0.90 -0.91

FINAL TREND-CYCLE

YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

2007 -0.86 -0.89 -0.86 -0.83

2008 -0.82 -0.83 -0.86 -0.88 -0.86 -0.81 -0.78 -0.80 -0.85 8.37 -0.85 -0.81

2009 13.17 -0.81 -0.82 8.43 -0.82 -0.78 3.36 -0.78 -0.81 -0.82 -0.83 -0.84

2010 -0.85 -0.86 -0.86 -0.87 -0.88 -0.88 -0.89 -0.90 -0.91

* * PROCESSING COMPLETED * *