tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-85900052073646349322024-02-03T01:11:50.722+02:00ΦΙΛΟΣΟΦΙΚΟΙ ΠΕΡΙΠΑΤΟΙανακαλύπτοντας τις περπατημένους οδούς της φιλοσοφίαςTryphon Odinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14604221868631978100noreply@blogger.comBlogger13125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8590005207364634932.post-31995892136777959132011-07-18T18:50:00.002+03:002011-07-18T18:55:59.620+03:00<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhSuhzVLttw24xYnEEvwSGtVByjPvOM8nYvWU0iVslvIpaPtKnCld_Aoc_c39ID7b5jjfKuC5C0NQi4a5tx6IoNQBKZFenR0HxC3wApfx8m4bi67D4XrbhFwE9JPF20QkvEXSGOi3-zqOG-/s1600/Industrial+Organisations.JPG" onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 291px; height: 400px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhSuhzVLttw24xYnEEvwSGtVByjPvOM8nYvWU0iVslvIpaPtKnCld_Aoc_c39ID7b5jjfKuC5C0NQi4a5tx6IoNQBKZFenR0HxC3wApfx8m4bi67D4XrbhFwE9JPF20QkvEXSGOi3-zqOG-/s400/Industrial+Organisations.JPG" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5630721162239198194" /></a><br /><p class="MsoNormal">Δυστυχώς η παρουσία μιας οικονομικής ορθοδοξίας που προέρχεται από δημοσιογράφους, αρθρογράφους και πολιτικούς, όπως άλλωστε και όλων των ειδών οι ορθοδοξίες, δεν προωθούν ούτε την ίδια την οικονομία, ούτε την ίδια την πολιτική- αφού αναπαράγονται επιχειρήματα τα οποία, ούτε διαφωτίζουν, ούτε μας αποδεικνύουν το ποιο θα πρέπει να είναι το κοινωνικά βέλτιστο.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Η Θεωρία Παιγνίων και η Βιομηχανική Οργάνωση, ως κομμάτι των Οικονομικών πολλές φορές ορίζουν το κοινωνικό βέλτιστο σημείο, ως τέτοιο που ορίζεται από έναν <span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-US">benevolent</span><span lang="EN-US"> </span>κοινωνικό ρυθμιστή. Αυτός θα πρέπει να είναι και ο ρόλος της πολιτικής, αν και όχι ο μόνος.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Ένα πολύ γνωστό παράδειγμα είναι και η «συμπεριφορά αναζήτησης μισθώματος» (από εδώ και στο εξής <span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US">rent</span>-<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-US">seeking</span><span lang="EN-US"> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-US">behavior</span>, <span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-US">RSB</span>). Η τιμολόγηση μέσω των μονοπωλιακών καθεστώτων μειώνει το πλεόνασμα καταναλωτή και αυξάνει τα κέρδη εν συγκρίσει με την συμπεριφορά σε πλαίσια ανταγωνισμού. Η μείωση στο πλεόνασμα υπερβαίνει την αύξηση στα κέρδη κατά ένα ποσό ίσο με τις αντισταθμιζόμενες απώλειες.</p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="page-break-after:avoid"><span style="mso-fareast-language: EL;mso-no-proof:yes"><!--[if gte vml 1]><v:shapetype id="_x0000_t75" coordsize="21600,21600" spt="75" preferrelative="t" path="m@4@5l@4@11@9@11@9@5xe" filled="f" stroked="f"> <v:stroke joinstyle="miter"> <v:formulas> <v:f eqn="if lineDrawn pixelLineWidth 0"> <v:f eqn="sum @0 1 0"> <v:f eqn="sum 0 0 @1"> <v:f eqn="prod @2 1 2"> <v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelWidth"> <v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelHeight"> <v:f eqn="sum @0 0 1"> <v:f eqn="prod @6 1 2"> <v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelWidth"> <v:f eqn="sum @8 21600 0"> <v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelHeight"> <v:f eqn="sum @10 21600 0"> </v:formulas> <v:path extrusionok="f" gradientshapeok="t" connecttype="rect"> <o:lock ext="edit" aspectratio="t"> </v:shapetype><v:shape id="Εικόνα_x0020_1" spid="_x0000_i1025" type="#_x0000_t75" style="'width:415.5pt;height:325.5pt;visibility:visible;mso-wrap-style:square'"> <v:imagedata src="file:///C:\DOCUME~1\A44C~1\LOCALS~1\Temp\msohtmlclip1\01\clip_image001.emz" title=""> </v:shape><![endif]--><!--[if !vml]--><img width="554" height="434" src="file:///C:/DOCUME~1/A44C~1/LOCALS~1/Temp/msohtmlclip1/01/clip_image002.gif" shapes="Εικόνα_x0020_1" /><!--[endif]--></span></p> <p class="MsoCaption"><span style="color:windowtext">Εικόνα </span><!--[if supportFields]><span style="'color:windowtext'"><span style="'mso-element:field-begin'"></span><span style="'mso-spacerun:yes'"> </span>SEQ Εικόνα \* ARABIC <span style="'mso-element:"></span></span><![endif]--><span style="color:windowtext"><span style="mso-no-proof:yes">1</span></span><!--[if supportFields]><span style="'color:windowtext'"><span style="'mso-element:field-end'"></span></span><![endif]--><span style="color:windowtext"> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="color:windowtext; mso-ansi-language:EN-US">Tirole</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color:windowtext"> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="color:windowtext;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">Industrial</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color:windowtext"> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="color:windowtext; mso-ansi-language:EN-US">Organizations</span><span style="color:windowtext">, 1988 σελίδα 65 (είδη ανταγωνισμού και κέρδη)<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal">Επιπλέον σε μια μονοπωλιακή θέση ενδέχεται να δημιουργεί πληθωρισμό κόστους. Η τρίτη παρεμβολή που συνδέεται με ένα μονοπώλιο, είναι η σπατάλη των πόρων που λαμβάνει χώρα προκειμένου να διασφαλιστεί ή να διατηρηθεί μια μονοπωλιακή θέση.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Φανταστείτε το ενοίκιο που σχετίζεται με την μονοπωλιακή τιμολόγηση. Αν αφαιρέσουμε την περίπτωση όπου λόγω της τεχνολογικής εξέλιξης και των πνευματικών δικαιωμάτων, όπου το κόστος είναι συναρτήσει και άλλων παραγόντων, κάποιος μπορεί πολύ εύκολα να δει ότι το ενοίκιο (στο <span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-US">RSB</span>) είναι ίσο με το μονοπωλιακό κέρδος που αναπαρίσταται ανωτέρω στο τραπέζιο <span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-US">CEFAC</span>. Είναι πασίδηλο ότι η ύπαρξη ενός τέτοιου μισθώματος μπορεί να οδηγήσει σε συμπεριφορά αναζήτησης ενοικίου (<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-US">RSB</span>). Οι επιχειρήσεις θα τείνουν να ξοδεύουν περισσότερα χρήματα και να ασκούν εξαιρετικές προσπάθειες για να αποκτήσουν αυτή την μονοπωλιακή θέση, και μόλις την αποκτήσουν θα συνεχίσουν να ξοδεύουν χρήματα και να ασκούν πίεση για να την διατηρήσουν. <span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>Το ίδιο δεν κάνουν και όλοι αυτοί οι εργαζόμενοι, στα «κλειστά επαγγέλματα»; Το νταλαβέρι μεταξύ κράτους και εργαζομένων σε «κλειστά επαγγέλματα», με την μη- φορολόγησή τους, ήταν ένα έγκλημα, με δύο συνεργούς και θύμα την ίδια την ελληνική κοινωνία και την συνοχή της. Όσο γρηγορότερα το καταλάβουμε, τόσο το καλύτερο για εμάς.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Ο <span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-US">Michael</span><span lang="EN-US"> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-US">Posner</span><span lang="EN-US"> </span>(1975) αναλύει μια ακραία περίπτωση <span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-US">RSB</span><span lang="EN-US"> </span>σε μια διαμάχη ανάμεσα σε εταιρείες που προσπαθούν να γίνουν μονοπώλιο και οδηγείται στο συμπέρασμα ότι όλα τα μονοπωλιακά μισθώματα θα πρέπει να υπολογισθούν στα κόστη του μονοπωλίου. Με άλλα λόγια σαν να υπολογίζουμε όλα τα κόστη για τις άδειες ταξί πχ για να ορίσουμε το κόστος του συγκεκριμένου μονοπωλίου στην Ελλάδα, θα πρέπει να υπολογίσουμε το άθροισμα όλων των αδειών ταξί ανά την επικράτεια. (πολλά λεφτά…). Το πραγματικό αντιστάθμισμα απώλειας παρουσιάζεται από το σχεδιάγραμμα ανωτέρω από το σχήμα <span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US">CEGFAC</span>. Τα δύο κύρια αξιώματα που προκύπτουν είναι τα ακόλουθα:</p> <p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="text-indent:-18.0pt;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo1"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-latin"><span style="mso-list:Ignore">1.<span style="font:7.0pt "Times New Roman""> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-US">Rent</span><span lang="EN-US"> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-US">dissipation</span>, το συνολικό έξοδο από όλες τις εταιρείες για να αποκτήσουν το ενοίκιο είναι ισοδύναμο με το ποσό του ενοικίου (άθροισμα ενοικίων= συνολικό κόστους)</p> <p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="text-indent:-18.0pt;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo1"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-latin"><span style="mso-list:Ignore">2.<span style="font:7.0pt "Times New Roman""> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-US">Socially</span><span lang="EN-US"> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-US">wasteful</span><span lang="EN-US"> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language:EN-US">dissipation</span>, το έξοδο αυτό δεν έχει/ δεν παράγει υποπροϊόντα ωφέλημα για την κοινωνία.</p> <p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left:0cm;mso-add-space:auto"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left:0cm;mso-add-space:auto">Αν αυτά τα χρήματα, όλα όσα δόθηκαν για άδειες τέτοιου τύπου, ταξί, λεωφορεία, φαρμακοποιοί, συμβολαιογράφοι, φούρνοι κτλ, τα οποία σε μεγάλο ποσοστό αποτελούν δάνεια από τράπεζες, δηλαδή αποταμιεύσεις άλλων ανθρώπων, που σήμερα μειώνονται οι μισθοί τους, επειδή οι κοινωνικοί ρυθμιστές, κοιτούσαν το να επανεκλεγούν και όχι να δημιουργήσουν μια κοινωνία βέλτιστη για τους κατοίκους της. ( Ή ακόμα χειρότερα τα έδωσαν τράπεζες που σήμερα κυνηγούν την κρατική επιχορήγηση για να μην κλείσουν.) Τότε θα μπορούσαμε να δούμε μια κοινωνία που επενδύει σε υποδομές και σε γνώσεις και που δεν περιμένει να της δοθούν χρήματα για να πληρώνει συντάξεις (άλλωστε οι συντάξεις είναι μεταβιβαστικές πληρωμές, χρήματα που έχουν ήδη πληρωθεί, οι κατά καιρούς Διοικητές των ταμείων πρέπει πρώτοι <span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>να δεχτούν εις τας κάρας αυτών τσεκούρια. Επίσης, με τους φόρους δεν γίνεται ποτέ να αρχίσουμε να έχουμε πλεονασματικούς προϋπολογισμούς και να αρχίσουμε να πληρώνουμε χρέος. Ο φόρος έχει την έννοια της ανταποδοτικότητας. Πληρώνω φόρους στο χωριό μου, και μου βάζουν μια λάμπα έξω από το σπίτι. Ξαναπληρώνω φόρους και βλέπω το παιδί μου που πηγαίνει με ασφάλεια στο σχολείο. Αυτό είναι το κίνητρο, η ανταποδοτικότητα. </p> <p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left:0cm;mso-add-space:auto"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left:0cm;mso-add-space:auto">Δυστυχώς οι εποχές μας είναι το τρανότερο παράδειγμα, ότι και η πολιτική (με την ελληνική έννοια) και η οικονομία (με την ελληνική έννοια –δημοσιογράφοι, πολιτικοί, οικονομολόγοι του γλυκού νερού) έχουν έρθει σε ένα τέλμα, είτε από ημιμάθεια, είτε από συμφέροντα πολιτικά. <span class="apple-style-span"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Georgia","serif"; color:#CC0000">Όταν οι νόμοι εφαρμόζονται δίκαια πάνω και στους ντόπιους και στους ξένους, χωρίς να παραβιάζεται ποτέ το δίκαιο, τότε και η πολιτεία ευημερεί και οι πολίτες μέσα σ’ αυτή ευτυχούν</span> Ησίοδος</span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left:0cm;mso-add-space:auto"><span class="apple-style-span"><br /></span></p>Tryphon Odinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14604221868631978100noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8590005207364634932.post-46667219932237755152010-08-12T17:54:00.002+03:002010-08-12T18:03:07.889+03:00Απάντηση στο άρθρο του Capital Να μην επιτραπεί στους μετανάστες να ψηφίζουν 12/08/2010<div>συγχαρητήρια Γραικοί και Γραικύλοι! Γεια σου μάνα μου Ελλάς είμαι κλεφτοφουκαράς! </div><div>Δημοκρατία των ελληνοπαίδων, των μαυρογυαλούρων και τον τσιφλικάδων -όπου βλέπεις βουλευτής, βάλε παπαδαριό επί Τουρκοκρατίας-</div><div>Ζήτω η βλαχομπόγδανία! </div><div>-σύμφωνα με την αρχαία αθηναϊκή δημοκρατία και τον όρκο που έδιναν οι νέοι, "ουκ ελάττω παραδότω...", όλοι αυτοί που τρώνε και κόβονται και πέρδονται για το μεγαλείο της Αρχαίας Ελλάδας βουλευτάδες και χαρτογιακάδες, θα βρίσκονταν μακριά από την πατρώα γη, εξόριστοι δίχως πολιτικά δικαιώματα, μπορεί και σφαγμένοι...-</div><div>Με σεβασμό και εκτίμηση ως προς τους τίμιους φιλο- αναγνώστες</div><div><br /></div><div>*ιδέ Ραμού- Χαψιάδου "Από την Φυλετική Κοινωνία στην Πολιτική" (ουδέποτε πραγματοποιήθηκε τέτοιο πέρασμα στην χώρα μας, γι' αυτό και δεν μπορούμε να ομιλούμε πολιτικά)</div>Tryphon Odinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14604221868631978100noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8590005207364634932.post-42477989441020142102010-05-17T21:16:00.000+03:002010-05-17T21:20:06.298+03:00TRAMO ANALYSIS ΟΝ GREEK UNEMPLOYMENT.....<div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> SIGNAL EXTRACTION IN 'ARIMA' TIME SERIES (BETA VERSION) (*)</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> BY</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> V. GOMEZ & A. MARAVALL,</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> with the programming assistance of G. CAPORELLO</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> Thanks are due to G. FIORENTINI and C. PLANAS for their research assistance</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> (Based on an original program developed by J.P.BURMAN at the Bank of England, version 1982)</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">(*) Copyright : V. GOMEZ, A. MARAVALL (1994,1996)</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> FIRST PART:</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> ARIMA ESTIMATION</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> SERIES TITLE: un_gr </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> PREADJUSTED WITH TRAMO : YES </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> METHOD: MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> NO OF OBSERVATIONS =138</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> ORIGINAL UNCORRECTED SERIES (from TRAMO)</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1998 11.000 11.000 11.000 11.100 11.100 11.100 11.200 11.200 11.200</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1999 11.400 11.400 11.400 12.000 12.000 12.000 12.100 12.100 12.100 12.400 12.400 12.400</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2000 11.600 11.600 11.600 11.400 11.400 11.400 11.200 11.200 11.200 10.700 10.700 10.700</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2001 10.500 10.500 10.500 10.600 10.600 10.600 10.500 10.500 10.500 11.000 11.000 11.000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2002 10.800 10.800 10.800 10.300 10.300 10.300 10.200 10.200 10.200 10.000 10.000 10.000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2003 9.800 9.800 9.800 9.700 9.700 9.700 9.600 9.600 9.600 9.800 9.800 9.800</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2004 10.700 10.700 10.700 10.500 10.500 10.500 10.500 10.500 10.500 10.300 10.300 10.300</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2005 9.800 9.800 9.800 9.900 9.900 9.900 10.100 10.100 10.100 9.600 9.600 9.600</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2006 9.200 9.200 9.200 9.100 9.100 9.100 8.700 8.700 8.700 8.700 8.700 8.700</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2007 8.600 8.600 8.600 8.400 8.400 8.400 8.200 8.200 8.200 8.000 8.000 8.000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2008 7.800 7.800 7.800 7.500 7.500 7.500 7.500 7.500 7.500 7.900 7.900 7.900</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2009 8.800 8.800 8.800 9.200 9.200 9.200 9.700 9.700 9.700</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> PREADJUSTMENT FACTORS</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> Outliers and Other Deterministic Effects</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> (from TRAMO)</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1998 100.000 100.000 100.000 100.000 100.000 100.000 100.000 100.000 100.000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1999 100.000 100.000 100.000 107.192 107.192 107.192 107.192 107.192 107.192 107.192 107.192 107.192</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2000 100.513 100.513 100.513 100.513 100.513 100.513 98.820 98.820 98.820 90.620 90.620 90.620</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2001 90.620 90.620 90.620 92.719 92.719 92.719 92.719 92.719 92.719 92.719 92.719 92.719</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2002 92.719 92.719 92.719 89.124 89.124 89.124 89.124 89.124 89.124 84.330 84.330 84.330</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2003 84.330 84.330 84.330 84.330 84.330 84.330 84.330 84.330 84.330 84.330 84.330 84.330</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2004 95.600 95.600 95.600 95.600 95.600 95.600 97.165 97.165 97.165 93.928 93.928 93.928</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2005 93.928 93.928 93.928 96.367 96.367 96.367 100.683 100.683 100.683 94.453 94.453 94.453</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2006 94.453 94.453 94.453 94.453 94.453 94.453 93.180 93.180 93.180 93.180 93.180 93.180</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2007 95.018 95.018 95.018 95.018 95.018 95.018 95.018 95.018 95.018 95.018 95.018 95.018</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2008 95.018 95.018 95.018 95.018 95.018 95.018 95.018 95.018 95.018 103.884 103.884 103.884</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2009 118.525 118.525 118.525 129.595 129.595 129.595 134.962 134.962 134.962</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> ORIGINAL SERIES (Corrected by TRAMO)</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1998 11.000 11.000 11.000 11.100 11.100 11.100 11.200 11.200 11.200</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1999 11.400 11.400 11.400 11.195 11.195 11.195 11.288 11.288 11.288 11.568 11.568 11.568</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2000 11.541 11.541 11.541 11.342 11.342 11.342 11.334 11.334 11.334 11.807 11.807 11.807</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2001 11.587 11.587 11.587 11.432 11.432 11.432 11.325 11.325 11.325 11.864 11.864 11.864</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2002 11.648 11.648 11.648 11.557 11.557 11.557 11.445 11.445 11.445 11.858 11.858 11.858</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2003 11.621 11.621 11.621 11.502 11.502 11.502 11.384 11.384 11.384 11.621 11.621 11.621</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2004 11.193 11.193 11.193 10.983 10.983 10.983 10.806 10.806 10.806 10.966 10.966 10.966</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2005 10.434 10.434 10.434 10.273 10.273 10.273 10.031 10.031 10.031 10.164 10.164 10.164</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2006 9.740 9.740 9.740 9.634 9.634 9.634 9.337 9.337 9.337 9.337 9.337 9.337</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2007 9.051 9.051 9.051 8.840 8.840 8.840 8.630 8.630 8.630 8.419 8.419 8.419</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2008 8.209 8.209 8.209 7.893 7.893 7.893 7.893 7.893 7.893 7.605 7.605 7.605</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2009 7.425 7.425 7.425 7.099 7.099 7.099 7.187 7.187 7.187</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> INPUT PARAMETERS</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> ----------------</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> LAM= 0 IMEAN= 1 RSA= 0 MQ=12</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> P= 0 BP= 0 Q= 0 BQ= 1</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> D= 1 BD= 1 NOADMISS= 1 RMOD= 0.500</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> M=36 QMAX=50 BIAS= 1 SMTR= 0</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> THTR= -0.400 MAXBIAS= 0.500 IQM= 24 OUT= 1</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> EPSPHI= 2.000 MAXIT= 20 XL= 0.990 SEK= 3.000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> TRANSFORMATION: Z -> LOG Z</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> TRANSFORMED SERIES</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1998 2.398 2.398 2.398 2.407 2.407 2.407 2.416 2.416 2.416</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1999 2.434 2.434 2.434 2.415 2.415 2.415 2.424 2.424 2.424 2.448 2.448 2.448</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2000 2.446 2.446 2.446 2.428 2.428 2.428 2.428 2.428 2.428 2.469 2.469 2.469</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2001 2.450 2.450 2.450 2.436 2.436 2.436 2.427 2.427 2.427 2.473 2.473 2.473</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2002 2.455 2.455 2.455 2.447 2.447 2.447 2.438 2.438 2.438 2.473 2.473 2.473</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2003 2.453 2.453 2.453 2.443 2.443 2.443 2.432 2.432 2.432 2.453 2.453 2.453</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2004 2.415 2.415 2.415 2.396 2.396 2.396 2.380 2.380 2.380 2.395 2.395 2.395</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2005 2.345 2.345 2.345 2.330 2.330 2.330 2.306 2.306 2.306 2.319 2.319 2.319</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2006 2.276 2.276 2.276 2.265 2.265 2.265 2.234 2.234 2.234 2.234 2.234 2.234</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2007 2.203 2.203 2.203 2.179 2.179 2.179 2.155 2.155 2.155 2.131 2.131 2.131</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2008 2.105 2.105 2.105 2.066 2.066 2.066 2.066 2.066 2.066 2.029 2.029 2.029</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2009 2.005 2.005 2.005 1.960 1.960 1.960 1.972 1.972 1.972</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> NONSEASONAL DIFFERENCING D= 1</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> SEASONAL DIFFERENCING BD= 1</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> DIFFERENCED SERIES</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> X 10.0D-1</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1999 0.000 0.000 -0.008 0.000 0.000 0.155 0.000 0.000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2000 -0.201 0.000 0.000 0.008 0.000 0.000 -0.090 0.000 0.000 0.165 0.000 0.000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2001 -0.165 0.000 0.000 0.040 0.000 0.000 -0.088 0.000 0.000 0.056 0.000 0.000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2002 0.005 0.000 0.000 0.056 0.000 0.000 -0.003 0.000 0.000 -0.110 0.000 0.000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2003 -0.019 0.000 0.000 -0.024 0.000 0.000 -0.006 0.000 0.000 -0.149 0.000 0.000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2004 -0.174 0.000 0.000 -0.086 0.000 0.000 -0.059 0.000 0.000 -0.060 0.000 0.000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2005 -0.122 0.000 0.000 0.034 0.000 0.000 -0.076 0.000 0.000 -0.016 0.000 0.000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2006 0.072 0.000 0.000 0.046 0.000 0.000 -0.076 0.000 0.000 -0.131 0.000 0.000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2007 0.115 0.000 0.000 -0.126 0.000 0.000 0.073 0.000 0.000 -0.247 0.000 0.000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2008 0.058 0.000 0.000 -0.157 0.000 0.000 0.241 0.000 0.000 -0.126 0.000 0.000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2009 0.014 0.000 0.000 -0.056 0.000 0.000 0.123 0.000 0.000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> SERIES HAS BEEN MEAN CORRECTED</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> DIFFERENCED AND CENTERED SERIES</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> X 10.0D-1</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1999 0.009 0.009 0.001 0.009 0.009 0.164 0.009 0.009</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2000 -0.192 0.009 0.009 0.017 0.009 0.009 -0.081 0.009 0.009 0.173 0.009 0.009</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2001 -0.156 0.009 0.009 0.049 0.009 0.009 -0.079 0.009 0.009 0.065 0.009 0.009</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2002 0.014 0.009 0.009 0.065 0.009 0.009 0.006 0.009 0.009 -0.102 0.009 0.009</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2003 -0.010 0.009 0.009 -0.015 0.009 0.009 0.003 0.009 0.009 -0.140 0.009 0.009</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2004 -0.165 0.009 0.009 -0.077 0.009 0.009 -0.050 0.009 0.009 -0.051 0.009 0.009</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2005 -0.113 0.009 0.009 0.043 0.009 0.009 -0.067 0.009 0.009 -0.007 0.009 0.009</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2006 0.081 0.009 0.009 0.055 0.009 0.009 -0.067 0.009 0.009 -0.122 0.009 0.009</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2007 0.124 0.009 0.009 -0.117 0.009 0.009 0.082 0.009 0.009 -0.238 0.009 0.009</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2008 0.067 0.009 0.009 -0.148 0.009 0.009 0.250 0.009 0.009 -0.117 0.009 0.009</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2009 0.022 0.009 0.009 -0.047 0.009 0.009 0.132 0.009 0.009</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> MEAN OF DIFFERENCED SERIES -0.8901E-03</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> VARIANCE OF Z SERIES = 0.2357E-01</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> VARIANCE OF DIFFERENCED SERIES = 0.3841E-04</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> AUTOCORRELATIONS OF STATIONARY SERIES</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -------------------------------------</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -0.0208 -0.0210 -0.4083 -0.0234 -0.0236 0.4416</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> SE 0.0894 0.0895 0.0895 0.1034 0.1034 0.1034</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -0.0258 -0.0259 -0.4158 -0.0228 -0.0230 0.5403</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> SE 0.1176 0.1176 0.1176 0.1289 0.1289 0.1289</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -0.0211 -0.0213 -0.1919 -0.0244 -0.0246 0.2076</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> SE 0.1459 0.1459 0.1460 0.1480 0.1480 0.1480</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -0.0250 -0.0252 -0.1459 -0.0235 -0.0237 -0.0634</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> SE 0.1504 0.1504 0.1504 0.1516 0.1516 0.1516</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -0.0202 -0.0204 0.0301 -0.0204 -0.0206 0.0581</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> SE 0.1518 0.1518 0.1519 0.1519 0.1519 0.1520</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -0.0196 -0.0198 0.1668 -0.0223 -0.0225 -0.0794</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> SE 0.1521 0.1522 0.1522 0.1536 0.1537 0.1537</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> ------------------------</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -0.0208 -0.0214 -0.4096 -0.0539 -0.0573 0.3243</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> SE 0.0894 0.0894 0.0894 0.0894 0.0894 0.0894</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -0.0365 -0.0380 -0.2241 -0.0493 -0.0522 0.3404</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> SE 0.0894 0.0894 0.0894 0.0894 0.0894 0.0894</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -0.0237 -0.0243 0.2459 -0.0206 -0.0207 -0.1672</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> SE 0.0894 0.0894 0.0894 0.0894 0.0894 0.0894</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -0.0248 -0.0253 0.1205 -0.0161 -0.0163 -0.4436</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> SE 0.0894 0.0894 0.0894 0.0894 0.0894 0.0894</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -0.0438 -0.0461 -0.1120 -0.0500 -0.0530 0.3167</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> SE 0.0894 0.0894 0.0894 0.0894 0.0894 0.0894</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -0.0291 -0.0300 0.0949 -0.0330 -0.0339 0.4354</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> SE 0.0894 0.0894 0.0894 0.0894 0.0894 0.0894</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> MODEL FITTED</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> NONSEASONAL P= 0 D= 1 Q= 0</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> SEASONAL BP= 0 BD= 1 BQ= 1</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> PERIODICITY MQ= 12</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> PARAMETER SET AWAY FROM BOUNDARY,I= 1</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> ALL PARAMETERS AT LIMITS F = 0.21688359E-02</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -0.990000E+00</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> PARAMETER ESTIMATES</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> MEAN = -0.890106E-03</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> SE = *******</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> CORRELATION MATRIX</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 0.000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> ARIMA PARAMETERS </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> BTHETA= 0.9900</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> SE = 0.0000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div> </div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> RESIDUALS</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> X 10.0D-1</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1998 0.004 0.004 0.017 0.004 0.004 0.064 0.004 0.004</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1999 -0.063 0.004 0.004 -0.001 0.004 0.004 -0.015 0.004 0.004 0.101 0.005 0.005</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2000 -0.130 0.005 0.005 0.017 0.004 0.004 -0.066 0.004 0.004 0.074 0.004 0.004</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2001 -0.028 0.004 0.004 0.032 0.004 0.004 -0.013 0.004 0.004 -0.008 0.005 0.005</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2002 0.042 0.005 0.005 0.033 0.004 0.004 0.019 0.004 0.004 -0.093 0.004 0.004</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2003 -0.051 0.004 0.004 -0.048 0.004 0.004 -0.016 0.004 0.004 -0.047 0.005 0.005</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2004 -0.114 0.005 0.005 -0.030 0.004 0.004 -0.034 0.004 0.004 -0.004 0.004 0.004</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2005 0.000 0.004 0.004 0.072 0.004 0.004 -0.033 0.004 0.004 -0.003 0.005 0.005</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2006 0.081 0.005 0.005 -0.017 0.004 0.004 -0.034 0.004 0.004 -0.119 0.004 0.004</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2007 0.044 0.004 0.004 -0.100 0.004 0.004 0.115 0.004 0.004 -0.120 0.005 0.005</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2008 0.024 0.005 0.005 -0.049 0.004 0.004 0.136 0.004 0.004 0.002 0.004 0.004</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2009 -0.001 0.004 0.004 0.001 0.004 0.004 -0.002 0.004 0.004</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> STUDENTIZED RESIDUAL OF -3.4497 AT T= 22 ( 1 2000)</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> STUDENTIZED RESIDUAL OF -3.0442 AT T= 70 ( 1 2004)</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> STUDENTIZED RESIDUAL OF -3.1783 AT T=103 (10 2006)</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> STUDENTIZED RESIDUAL OF 3.0711 AT T=112 ( 7 2007)</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> STUDENTIZED RESIDUAL OF -3.1932 AT T=115 (10 2007)</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> STUDENTIZED RESIDUAL OF 3.6150 AT T=124 ( 7 2008)</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> TEST-STATISTICS ON RESIDUALS</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> ----------------------------</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> MEAN= 0.3122E-04</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> ST.DEV.= 0.3039E-03</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> OF MEAN</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> T-VALUE= 0.1027</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> NORMALITY TEST= 175.5 ( CHI-SQUARED(2) )</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> SKEWNESS= -0.5466 ( SE = 0.2093 )</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> KURTOSIS= 8.4351 ( SE = 0.4185 )</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> SUM OF SQUARES= 0.1734E-02</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> DURBIN-WATSON= 2.0271</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> STANDARD DEVI.= 0.3755E-02</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> OF RESID.</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> VARIANCE= 0.1410E-04</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> OF RESID.</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> AUTOCORRELATIONS OF RESIDUAL</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> ----------------------------</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -0.0137 -0.0138 -0.3065 -0.0142 -0.0143 0.3769</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> SE 0.0854 0.0855 0.0855 0.0931 0.0932 0.0932</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -0.0160 -0.0161 -0.3749 -0.0144 -0.0145 0.4237</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> SE 0.1037 0.1037 0.1037 0.1132 0.1132 0.1132</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -0.0143 -0.0144 -0.1673 -0.0177 -0.0178 0.0996</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> SE 0.1243 0.1243 0.1243 0.1259 0.1259 0.1260</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -0.0190 -0.0191 -0.1612 -0.0162 -0.0163 -0.2042</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> SE 0.1265 0.1266 0.1266 0.1281 0.1281 0.1281</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -0.0136 -0.0137 0.0515 -0.0149 -0.0150 0.0227</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> SE 0.1305 0.1305 0.1305 0.1306 0.1306 0.1306</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -0.0145 -0.0146 0.2059 -0.0153 -0.0153 -0.0817</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> SE 0.1307 0.1307 0.1307 0.1330 0.1331 0.1331</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> THE LJUNG-BOX Q VALUE IS 92.23</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> IF RESIDUALS ARE RANDOM IT SHOULD BE DISTRIBUTED AS CHI-SQUARED (23)</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> APPROXIMATE TEST OF RUNS ON RESIDUALS</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -------------------------------------</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> NUM.DATA= 137</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> NUM.(+)= 71</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> NUM.(-)= 66</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> T-VALUE= -2.65 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> AUTOCORRELATIONS OF SQUARED RESIDUAL</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> ------------------------------------</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -0.1315 -0.1324 0.3240 -0.1343 -0.1352 0.1929</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> SE 0.0854 0.0869 0.0884 0.0966 0.0980 0.0994</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -0.1340 -0.1349 0.4212 -0.1340 -0.1350 0.3262</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> SE 0.1020 0.1033 0.1046 0.1163 0.1174 0.1186</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -0.1369 -0.1378 0.2466 -0.1254 -0.1264 0.0926</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> SE 0.1249 0.1260 0.1271 0.1306 0.1315 0.1323</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -0.1188 -0.1197 0.1833 -0.1083 -0.1092 0.0983</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> SE 0.1328 0.1336 0.1344 0.1362 0.1368 0.1374</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -0.0999 -0.1009 0.0689 -0.0894 -0.0903 0.1219</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> SE 0.1380 0.1385 0.1390 0.1393 0.1397 0.1401</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -0.0803 -0.0813 0.1708 -0.0813 -0.0822 0.1116</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> SE 0.1409 0.1412 0.1416 0.1430 0.1434 0.1437</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> THE LJUNG-BOX Q VALUE IS 111.66</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> IF RESIDUALS ARE RANDOM IT SHOULD BE DISTRIBUTED AS CHI-SQUARED (23)</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> BACKWARD RESIDUALS</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> X 10.0D-1</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1998 0.004 0.004 0.017 0.004 0.004 0.065 0.004 0.004 -0.063</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1999 0.004 0.004 -0.001 0.004 0.004 -0.015 0.004 0.004 0.101 0.005 0.005 -0.130</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2000 0.005 0.005 0.017 0.004 0.004 -0.066 0.004 0.004 0.074 0.004 0.004 -0.027</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2001 0.004 0.004 0.032 0.004 0.004 -0.013 0.004 0.004 -0.009 0.005 0.005 0.041</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2002 0.005 0.005 0.033 0.004 0.004 0.019 0.004 0.004 -0.093 0.004 0.004 -0.052</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2003 0.004 0.004 -0.049 0.004 0.004 -0.016 0.004 0.004 -0.047 0.005 0.005 -0.114</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2004 0.005 0.005 -0.029 0.004 0.004 -0.034 0.004 0.004 -0.004 0.004 0.004 0.001</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2005 0.004 0.004 0.072 0.004 0.004 -0.033 0.004 0.004 -0.003 0.005 0.005 0.080</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2006 0.005 0.005 -0.018 0.004 0.004 -0.034 0.004 0.004 -0.121 0.004 0.004 0.044</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2007 0.004 0.004 -0.100 0.004 0.004 0.117 0.004 0.004 -0.119 0.005 0.005 0.023</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2008 0.005 0.005 -0.048 0.004 0.004 0.134 0.004 0.004 0.002 0.004 0.004 -0.001</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2009 0.004 0.004 0.001 0.004 0.004 -0.002 0.004 0.004</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> SECOND PART:</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> DERIVATION OF THE MODELS FOR THE COMPONENTS</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> SERIES TITLE: un_gr </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> MODEL PARAMETERS</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> (0,1,0)(0,1,1)</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> PARAMETER VALUES PASSED FROM ARIMA ESTIMATION (TRUE SIGNS)</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> THETA PARAMETERS</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1.00</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> BTHETA PARAMETERS</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.99</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> PHI PARAMETERS</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1.00</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> BPHI PARAMETERS</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1.00</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> NUMERATOR OF THE MODEL</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> ----------------------</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 0.9900</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> STATIONARY AUTOREGRESSIVE TREND-CYCLE</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1.0000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> NON-STATIONARY AUTOREGRESSIVE TREND-CYCLE</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1.0000 -2.0000 1.0000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> AUTOREGRESSIVE TREND-CYCLE</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> --------------------</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1.0000 -2.0000 1.0000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> STATIONARY AUTOREGRESSIVE TRANSITORY COMP.</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1.0000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> NON-STATIONARY AUTOREGRESSIVE TRANSITORY COMP.</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1.0000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> AUTOREGRESSIVE TRANSITORY COMP.</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> ------------------------------</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1.0000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> STATIONARY AUTOREGRESSIVE SEASONAL COMPONENT</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1.0000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> NON-STATIONARY AUTOREGRESSIVE SEASONAL COMPONENT</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> AUTOREGRESSIVE SEASONAL COMPONENT</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> ---------------------------------</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> STATIONARY AUTOREGRESSIVE SEASONALLY ADJUSTED COMPONENT</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1.0000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> NON-STATIONARY AUTOREGRESSIVE SEASONALLY ADJUSTED COMPONENT</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1.0000 -2.0000 1.0000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> AUTOREGRESSIVE SEASONALLY ADJUSTED COMPONENT</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> --------------------------------------------</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1.0000 -2.0000 1.0000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> TOTAL DENOMINATOR</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -----------------</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1.0000 -1.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -1.0000 1.0000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> DECOMPOSITION INVALID,IRREGULAR SPECTRUM NEGATIVE</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> *****************************</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> THE MODEL IS APPROXIMATED</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> *****************************</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> INPUT PARAMETERS</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> ----------------</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> LAM= 0 IMEAN= 1 RSA= 0 MQ=12</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> P= 0 BP= 0 Q= 1 BQ= 1</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> D= 1 BD= 1 NOADMISS= 2 RMOD= 0.500</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> M=36 QMAX=50 BIAS= 1 SMTR= 0</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> THTR= -0.400 MAXBIAS= 0.500 IQM= 24 OUT= 1</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> EPSPHI= 2.000 MAXIT= 20 XL= 0.990 SEK= 3.000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> TRANSFORMATION: Z -> LOG Z</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> TRANSFORMED SERIES</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1998 2.398 2.398 2.398 2.407 2.407 2.407 2.416 2.416 2.416</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1999 2.434 2.434 2.434 2.415 2.415 2.415 2.424 2.424 2.424 2.448 2.448 2.448</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2000 2.446 2.446 2.446 2.428 2.428 2.428 2.428 2.428 2.428 2.469 2.469 2.469</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2001 2.450 2.450 2.450 2.436 2.436 2.436 2.427 2.427 2.427 2.473 2.473 2.473</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2002 2.455 2.455 2.455 2.447 2.447 2.447 2.438 2.438 2.438 2.473 2.473 2.473</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2003 2.453 2.453 2.453 2.443 2.443 2.443 2.432 2.432 2.432 2.453 2.453 2.453</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2004 2.415 2.415 2.415 2.396 2.396 2.396 2.380 2.380 2.380 2.395 2.395 2.395</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2005 2.345 2.345 2.345 2.330 2.330 2.330 2.306 2.306 2.306 2.319 2.319 2.319</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2006 2.276 2.276 2.276 2.265 2.265 2.265 2.234 2.234 2.234 2.234 2.234 2.234</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2007 2.203 2.203 2.203 2.179 2.179 2.179 2.155 2.155 2.155 2.131 2.131 2.131</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2008 2.105 2.105 2.105 2.066 2.066 2.066 2.066 2.066 2.066 2.029 2.029 2.029</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2009 2.005 2.005 2.005 1.960 1.960 1.960 1.972 1.972 1.972</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> NONSEASONAL DIFFERENCING D= 1</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> SEASONAL DIFFERENCING BD= 1</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> DIFFERENCED SERIES</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> X 10.0D-1</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1999 0.000 0.000 -0.008 0.000 0.000 0.155 0.000 0.000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2000 -0.201 0.000 0.000 0.008 0.000 0.000 -0.090 0.000 0.000 0.165 0.000 0.000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2001 -0.165 0.000 0.000 0.040 0.000 0.000 -0.088 0.000 0.000 0.056 0.000 0.000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2002 0.005 0.000 0.000 0.056 0.000 0.000 -0.003 0.000 0.000 -0.110 0.000 0.000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2003 -0.019 0.000 0.000 -0.024 0.000 0.000 -0.006 0.000 0.000 -0.149 0.000 0.000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2004 -0.174 0.000 0.000 -0.086 0.000 0.000 -0.059 0.000 0.000 -0.060 0.000 0.000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2005 -0.122 0.000 0.000 0.034 0.000 0.000 -0.076 0.000 0.000 -0.016 0.000 0.000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2006 0.072 0.000 0.000 0.046 0.000 0.000 -0.076 0.000 0.000 -0.131 0.000 0.000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2007 0.115 0.000 0.000 -0.126 0.000 0.000 0.073 0.000 0.000 -0.247 0.000 0.000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2008 0.058 0.000 0.000 -0.157 0.000 0.000 0.241 0.000 0.000 -0.126 0.000 0.000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2009 0.014 0.000 0.000 -0.056 0.000 0.000 0.123 0.000 0.000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> SERIES HAS BEEN MEAN CORRECTED</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> DIFFERENCED AND CENTERED SERIES</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> X 10.0D-1</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1999 0.009 0.009 0.001 0.009 0.009 0.164 0.009 0.009</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2000 -0.192 0.009 0.009 0.017 0.009 0.009 -0.081 0.009 0.009 0.173 0.009 0.009</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2001 -0.156 0.009 0.009 0.049 0.009 0.009 -0.079 0.009 0.009 0.065 0.009 0.009</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2002 0.014 0.009 0.009 0.065 0.009 0.009 0.006 0.009 0.009 -0.102 0.009 0.009</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2003 -0.010 0.009 0.009 -0.015 0.009 0.009 0.003 0.009 0.009 -0.140 0.009 0.009</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2004 -0.165 0.009 0.009 -0.077 0.009 0.009 -0.050 0.009 0.009 -0.051 0.009 0.009</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2005 -0.113 0.009 0.009 0.043 0.009 0.009 -0.067 0.009 0.009 -0.007 0.009 0.009</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2006 0.081 0.009 0.009 0.055 0.009 0.009 -0.067 0.009 0.009 -0.122 0.009 0.009</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2007 0.124 0.009 0.009 -0.117 0.009 0.009 0.082 0.009 0.009 -0.238 0.009 0.009</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2008 0.067 0.009 0.009 -0.148 0.009 0.009 0.250 0.009 0.009 -0.117 0.009 0.009</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2009 0.022 0.009 0.009 -0.047 0.009 0.009 0.132 0.009 0.009</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> MEAN OF DIFFERENCED SERIES -0.8901E-03</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> VARIANCE OF Z SERIES = 0.2357E-01</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> VARIANCE OF DIFFERENCED SERIES = 0.3841E-04</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> AUTOCORRELATIONS OF STATIONARY SERIES</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -------------------------------------</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -0.0208 -0.0210 -0.4083 -0.0234 -0.0236 0.4416</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> SE 0.0894 0.0895 0.0895 0.1034 0.1034 0.1034</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -0.0258 -0.0259 -0.4158 -0.0228 -0.0230 0.5403</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> SE 0.1176 0.1176 0.1176 0.1289 0.1289 0.1289</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -0.0211 -0.0213 -0.1919 -0.0244 -0.0246 0.2076</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> SE 0.1459 0.1459 0.1460 0.1480 0.1480 0.1480</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -0.0250 -0.0252 -0.1459 -0.0235 -0.0237 -0.0634</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> SE 0.1504 0.1504 0.1504 0.1516 0.1516 0.1516</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -0.0202 -0.0204 0.0301 -0.0204 -0.0206 0.0581</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> SE 0.1518 0.1518 0.1519 0.1519 0.1519 0.1520</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -0.0196 -0.0198 0.1668 -0.0223 -0.0225 -0.0794</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> SE 0.1521 0.1522 0.1522 0.1536 0.1537 0.1537</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> ------------------------</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -0.0208 -0.0214 -0.4096 -0.0539 -0.0573 0.3243</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> SE 0.0894 0.0894 0.0894 0.0894 0.0894 0.0894</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -0.0365 -0.0380 -0.2241 -0.0493 -0.0522 0.3404</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> SE 0.0894 0.0894 0.0894 0.0894 0.0894 0.0894</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -0.0237 -0.0243 0.2459 -0.0206 -0.0207 -0.1672</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> SE 0.0894 0.0894 0.0894 0.0894 0.0894 0.0894</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -0.0248 -0.0253 0.1205 -0.0161 -0.0163 -0.4436</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> SE 0.0894 0.0894 0.0894 0.0894 0.0894 0.0894</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -0.0438 -0.0461 -0.1120 -0.0500 -0.0530 0.3167</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> SE 0.0894 0.0894 0.0894 0.0894 0.0894 0.0894</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -0.0291 -0.0300 0.0949 -0.0330 -0.0339 0.4354</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> SE 0.0894 0.0894 0.0894 0.0894 0.0894 0.0894</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> MODEL FITTED</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> NONSEASONAL P= 0 D= 1 Q= 1</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> SEASONAL BP= 0 BD= 1 BQ= 1</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> PERIODICITY MQ= 12</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> PARAMETER SET AWAY FROM BOUNDARY,I= 2</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> CONVERGED AFTER 4 ITERATIONS AND 12 FUNCTION VALUES F = 0.21684198E-02</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 0.144050E-01 -0.990000E+00</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> PARAMETERS FIXED </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> PARAMETERS OUTSIDE ADMISSIBLE REGION</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> PARAMETER 2 FIXED</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> MEAN = -0.890106E-03</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> SE = *******</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> ARIMA PARAMETERS </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> TH = -0.0144</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> SE = *****</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> BTH = 0.0000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> SE = *****</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> SECOND PART:</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> DERIVATION OF THE MODELS FOR THE COMPONENTS</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> SERIES TITLE: un_gr </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> MODEL PARAMETERS</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> (0,1,1)(0,1,1)</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> PARAMETER VALUES PASSED FROM ARIMA ESTIMATION (TRUE SIGNS)</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> THETA PARAMETERS</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1.00 -0.01</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> BTHETA PARAMETERS</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> PHI PARAMETERS</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1.00</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> BPHI PARAMETERS</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1.00</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> NUMERATOR OF THE MODEL</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> ----------------------</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1.0000 -0.0144 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 0.0000 0.0000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> STATIONARY AUTOREGRESSIVE TREND-CYCLE</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1.0000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> NON-STATIONARY AUTOREGRESSIVE TREND-CYCLE</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1.0000 -2.0000 1.0000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> AUTOREGRESSIVE TREND-CYCLE</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> --------------------</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1.0000 -2.0000 1.0000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> STATIONARY AUTOREGRESSIVE TRANSITORY COMP.</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1.0000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> NON-STATIONARY AUTOREGRESSIVE TRANSITORY COMP.</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1.0000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> AUTOREGRESSIVE TRANSITORY COMP.</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> ------------------------------</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1.0000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> STATIONARY AUTOREGRESSIVE SEASONAL COMPONENT</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1.0000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> NON-STATIONARY AUTOREGRESSIVE SEASONAL COMPONENT</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> AUTOREGRESSIVE SEASONAL COMPONENT</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> ---------------------------------</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> STATIONARY AUTOREGRESSIVE SEASONALLY ADJUSTED COMPONENT</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1.0000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> NON-STATIONARY AUTOREGRESSIVE SEASONALLY ADJUSTED COMPONENT</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1.0000 -2.0000 1.0000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> AUTOREGRESSIVE SEASONALLY ADJUSTED COMPONENT</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> --------------------------------------------</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1.0000 -2.0000 1.0000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> TOTAL DENOMINATOR</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -----------------</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1.0000 -1.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -1.0000 1.0000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> MA ROOTS OF TREND-CYCLE</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -----------------------</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> REAL PART IMAGINARY PART MODULUS ARGUMENT PERIOD</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> (DEG.) </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 0.752 0.000 0.752 0.000 - </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -1.000 0.000 1.000 180.000 2.0 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> TOTAL SQUARED ERROR= 0.3167314E-34</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> MA ROOTS OF SEAS.</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -----------------</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> REAL PART IMAGINARY PART MODULUS ARGUMENT PERIOD</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> (DEG.) </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 0.604 0.610 0.858 45.309 7.946</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -0.676 0.671 0.952 135.200 2.663</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 0.222 0.857 0.885 75.470 4.770</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -0.243 0.885 0.918 105.346 3.417</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 0.291 0.000 0.291 0.000 - </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -0.966 0.258 1.000 165.064 2.181</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> TOTAL SQUARED ERROR= 0.5710378E-23</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> MA ROOTS OF SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SERIES</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> --------------------------------------</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> REAL PART IMAGINARY PART MODULUS ARGUMENT PERIOD</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> (DEG.) </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 0.291 0.000 0.291 0.000 - </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 0.744 0.000 0.744 0.000 - </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> TOTAL SQUARED ERROR= 0.7914352E-32</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> MODELS FOR THE COMPONENTS</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -------------------------</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> TREND-CYCLE NUMERATOR</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1.0000 0.2484 -0.7516</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> TREND-CYCLE DENOMINATOR</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1.0000 -2.0000 1.0000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> INNOV. VAR. (*) 0.02733</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> SEAS. NUMERATOR</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1.0000 1.8269 2.1700 2.2443 2.0937 1.8175 1.4757 1.0985 0.7602 0.4202 0.2105 -0.1286</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> SEAS. DENOMINATOR</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> INNOV. VAR. (*) 0.34582</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> IRREGULAR</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> VAR. 0.06500</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> SEASONALLY ADJUSTED NUMERATOR</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1.0000 -1.0354 0.2168</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DENOMINATOR</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1.0000 -2.0000 1.0000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> INNOV. VAR. (*) 0.20501</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> (*) IN UNITS OF VAR(A)</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> MOVING AVERAGE REPRESENTATION OF ESTIMATORS (NONSTATIONARY)</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> The last column (the sum of the Psi-Weights) should be zero</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> for negative lags, 1 for lag=0, and equal to the Box-Jenkins</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> Psi-Weights for positive lags.</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> PSIEP(LAG), for example, represents the effect of the overall</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> innovation a(t-lag) on the estimator of the trend for period t.</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> Similarly for the other components.</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> LAG PSIEP PSIES PSIEC PSIEA PSIUE PSIEP + PSIES + PSIUE</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -24 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -23 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -22 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -21 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -20 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -19 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -18 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -17 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -16 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -15 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -14 -0.0003 -0.0006 0.0000 0.0006 0.0009 0.0000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -13 -0.0214 -0.0426 0.0000 0.0426 0.0641 0.0000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -12 -0.0610 0.1260 0.0000 -0.1260 -0.0650 0.0000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -11 -0.0746 0.0746 0.0000 -0.0746 0.0000 0.0000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -10 -0.0608 0.0608 0.0000 -0.0608 0.0000 0.0000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -9 -0.0402 0.0402 0.0000 -0.0402 0.0000 0.0000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -8 -0.0127 0.0127 0.0000 -0.0127 0.0000 0.0000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -7 0.0216 -0.0216 0.0000 0.0216 0.0000 0.0000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -6 0.0628 -0.0628 0.0000 0.0628 0.0000 0.0000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -5 0.1108 -0.1108 0.0000 0.1108 0.0000 0.0000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -4 0.1656 -0.1656 0.0000 0.1656 0.0000 0.0000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -3 0.2273 -0.2273 0.0000 0.2273 0.0000 0.0000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -2 0.2962 -0.2953 0.0000 0.2953 -0.0009 0.0000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -1 0.3927 -0.3286 0.0000 0.3286 -0.0641 0.0000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 0 0.5145 0.4205 0.0000 0.5795 0.0650 1.0000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1 0.6172 0.3684 0.0000 0.6172 0.0000 0.9856</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2 0.6993 0.2863 0.0000 0.6993 0.0000 0.9856</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 3 0.7815 0.2041 0.0000 0.7815 0.0000 0.9856</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 4 0.8636 0.1220 0.0000 0.8636 0.0000 0.9856</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 5 0.9457 0.0399 0.0000 0.9457 0.0000 0.9856</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 6 1.0279 -0.0423 0.0000 1.0279 0.0000 0.9856</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 7 1.1100 -0.1244 0.0000 1.1100 0.0000 0.9856</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 8 1.1921 -0.2065 0.0000 1.1921 0.0000 0.9856</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 9 1.2743 -0.2887 0.0000 1.2743 0.0000 0.9856</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 10 1.3564 -0.3708 0.0000 1.3564 0.0000 0.9856</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 11 1.4385 -0.4529 0.0000 1.4385 0.0000 0.9856</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 12 1.5207 0.4649 0.0000 1.5207 0.0000 1.9856</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 13 1.6028 0.3684 0.0000 1.6028 0.0000 1.9712</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 14 1.6849 0.2863 0.0000 1.6849 0.0000 1.9712</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 15 1.7671 0.2041 0.0000 1.7671 0.0000 1.9712</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 16 1.8492 0.1220 0.0000 1.8492 0.0000 1.9712</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 17 1.9313 0.0399 0.0000 1.9313 0.0000 1.9712</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 18 2.0135 -0.0423 0.0000 2.0135 0.0000 1.9712</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 19 2.0956 -0.1244 0.0000 2.0956 0.0000 1.9712</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 20 2.1777 -0.2065 0.0000 2.1777 0.0000 1.9712</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 21 2.2599 -0.2887 0.0000 2.2599 0.0000 1.9712</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 22 2.3420 -0.3708 0.0000 2.3420 0.0000 1.9712</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 23 2.4241 -0.4529 0.0000 2.4241 0.0000 1.9712</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 24 2.5063 0.4649 0.0000 2.5063 0.0000 2.9712</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> WIENER-KOLMOGOROV FILTERS (ONE SIDE)</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> TREND-CYCLE COMPONENT</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 0.1631 0.1186 0.0701 0.0625 0.0556 0.0486</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 0.0417 0.0347 0.0278 0.0208 0.0136 -0.0142</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -0.0399 -0.0211 -0.0003 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> SA SERIES COMPONENT</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 0.4194 -0.0077 0.0682 0.0625 0.0556 0.0486</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 0.0417 0.0347 0.0278 0.0208 0.0145 0.0490</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -0.1681 0.0420 0.0006 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> SEASONAL COMPONENT</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 0.5806 0.0077 -0.0682 -0.0625 -0.0556 -0.0486</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -0.0417 -0.0347 -0.0278 -0.0208 -0.0145 -0.0490</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 0.1681 -0.0420 -0.0006 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> IRREGULAR COMPONENT</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 0.2563 -0.1263 -0.0018 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0009 0.0632</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -0.1282 0.0632 0.0009 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION OF COMPONENTS (STATIONARY TRANSFORMATION)</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> TREND-CYCLE ADJUSTED</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> LAG COMPONENT ESTIMATOR ESTIMATE COMPONENT ESTIMATOR ESTIMATE</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1 0.038 0.408 0.447 -0.595 -0.660 -0.692</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2 -0.462 -0.225 -0.273 0.102 0.190 0.333</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 3 0.000 -0.093 -0.321 0.000 -0.016 -0.245</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 4 0.000 0.076 -0.066 0.000 0.002 0.198</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 5 0.000 0.069 0.213 0.000 0.002 -0.206</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 6 0.000 0.059 0.362 0.000 0.001 0.264</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 7 0.000 0.049 0.213 0.000 0.001 -0.221</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 8 0.000 0.041 -0.118 0.000 0.001 0.245</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 9 0.000 0.120 -0.283 0.000 0.010 -0.304</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 10 0.000 0.181 -0.104 0.000 -0.093 0.226</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 11 0.000 -0.140 0.158 0.000 0.332 -0.157</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 12 0.000 -0.441 0.201 0.000 -0.499 0.161</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> VAR.(*) 0.044 0.005 0.002 0.434 0.192 0.078</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> (*) IN UNITS OF VAR(A)</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION OF COMPONENTS (STATIONARY TRANSFORMATION)</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> IRREGULAR SEASONAL</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> LAG COMPONENT ESTIMATOR ESTIMATE COMPONENT ESTIMATOR ESTIMATE</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1 0.000 -0.493 -0.482 0.951 0.878 0.802</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2 0.000 -0.007 0.097 0.834 0.601 0.404</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 3 0.000 0.000 -0.231 0.684 0.265 0.006</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 4 0.000 0.000 0.109 0.524 -0.061 -0.229</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 5 0.000 0.000 -0.119 0.373 -0.327 -0.343</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 6 0.000 0.000 0.255 0.242 -0.505 -0.414</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 7 0.000 0.000 -0.121 0.139 -0.584 -0.535</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 8 0.000 0.000 0.141 0.065 -0.565 -0.602</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 9 0.000 0.000 -0.300 0.020 -0.466 -0.527</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 10 0.000 0.004 0.144 -0.001 -0.312 -0.248</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 11 0.000 0.246 -0.073 -0.005 -0.136 0.114</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 12 0.000 -0.500 0.159 0.000 0.021 0.407</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> VAR.(*) 0.065 0.017 0.007 8.981 2.404 1.707</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> (*) IN UNITS OF VAR(A)</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> For all components it should happen that :</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> - Var(Component) > Var(Estimator)</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> - Var(Estimator) close to Var(Estimate)</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> SAMPLE CROSS CORRELATION BETWEEN COMPONENTS</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -------------------------------------------</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> SEASONAL TREND-CYCLE IRREGULAR</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> COMPONENT COMPONENT</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> SA SERIES 0.000 0.000 0.000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> SEASONAL 0.000 0.000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> COMP.</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> TREND-CYCLE 0.000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> CROSSCORRELATION BETWEEN STATIONARY TRANSFORMATION OF ESTIMATORS</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> ESTIMATOR ESTIMATE</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> TREND/SEASONAL -0.215 -0.181</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> SEASONAL/IRREGULAR 0.054 0.059</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> TREND-CYCLE/IRREGULAR -0.030 -0.100</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> PSEUDO-INNOVATIONS IN THE COMPONENTS</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> ------------------------------------</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> PSEUDO INNOVATIONS IN TREND-CYCLE</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> X 10.0D-3</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1998 -0.02 -0.03 -0.28 -0.18 0.18 0.31 0.28 0.14 0.12</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1999 0.14 0.20 0.47 0.41 0.09 -0.16 -0.08 0.25 0.46 0.39 0.11 0.02</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2000 0.05 0.17 0.42 0.34 0.01 0.35 0.24 -0.23 -0.30 -0.28 -0.19 -0.31</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2001 -0.27 -0.12 -0.35 -0.27 0.05 0.36 0.26 -0.15 -0.51 -0.39 0.08 0.17</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2002 0.14 0.02 -0.21 -0.14 0.18 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.21 0.20 0.18 0.57</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2003 0.44 -0.09 -0.01 -0.04 -0.16 -0.20 -0.19 -0.14 0.11 0.03 -0.30 -0.20</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2004 -0.24 -0.37 -0.19 -0.26 -0.50 -0.61 -0.58 -0.43 -0.56 -0.52 -0.35 -0.66</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2005 -0.56 -0.13 -0.21 -0.18 -0.07 -0.08 -0.08 -0.07 -0.23 -0.18 0.04 -0.01</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2006 0.01 0.07 -0.27 -0.15 0.30 0.48 0.43 0.19 0.22 0.21 0.17 0.52</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2007 0.40 -0.07 -0.30 -0.22 0.08 0.09 0.08 0.08 0.14 0.12 0.04 0.11</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2008 0.08 -0.01 0.00 0.00 -0.03 -0.20 -0.14 0.08 0.12 0.13 0.09 -0.33</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2009 -0.21 0.33 0.65 0.53 0.09 0.06 0.05 0.06 0.02</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> PSEUDO INNOVATIONS IN SEASONAL</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> X 10.0D-1</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1998 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.01 -0.01 0.00 0.00</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1999 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 -0.03 -0.01 -0.02 0.09 0.00 0.02 -0.04 0.01 0.00</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2000 0.02 0.01 0.00 -0.10 -0.02 -0.02 0.11 0.02 0.02 -0.07 0.01 0.01</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2001 0.06 0.03 0.02 -0.11 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.02 -0.01 -0.04 -0.02 0.00</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2002 0.07 0.02 0.02 -0.04 0.01 0.00 -0.04 -0.01 -0.01 0.01 -0.01 0.00</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2003 0.01 0.01 0.00 -0.01 0.01 0.00 -0.04 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.02</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2004 -0.06 0.02 0.01 -0.04 0.02 0.01 -0.01 0.02 0.02 -0.01 0.04 0.02</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2005 -0.05 0.03 0.01 -0.07 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2006 0.01 0.02 0.00 -0.03 0.00 0.00 -0.02 -0.01 -0.01 0.02 -0.01 0.01</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2007 -0.03 0.00 -0.01 0.05 0.00 0.02 -0.04 0.01 0.00 0.03 0.02 0.01</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2008 -0.10 -0.02 -0.02 0.09 0.01 0.01 -0.03 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.00</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2009 -0.09 -0.03 -0.01 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> PSEUDO INNOVATIONS IN SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SERIES</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> X 10.0D-2</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1998 0.00 -0.01 0.04 -0.21 0.04 0.03 0.15 0.04 0.04</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1999 0.02 0.05 0.00 0.26 0.03 0.07 -0.17 0.06 0.03 0.24 0.03 0.05</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2000 -0.04 0.05 0.00 0.25 0.00 -0.07 0.28 -0.06 -0.05 -0.12 -0.05 -0.03</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2001 -0.15 -0.03 0.02 -0.22 0.01 -0.05 0.26 -0.04 0.03 -0.33 0.02 0.01</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2002 0.09 0.01 0.06 -0.19 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.07 0.05 -0.04</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2003 0.37 -0.02 -0.05 0.05 -0.04 -0.04 -0.07 -0.04 -0.09 0.16 -0.08 -0.11</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2004 0.00 -0.10 -0.14 0.04 -0.14 -0.12 -0.23 -0.12 -0.09 -0.22 -0.09 -0.03</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2005 -0.35 -0.04 -0.02 -0.10 -0.02 -0.02 -0.03 -0.02 0.01 -0.15 0.01 0.02</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2006 -0.03 0.02 0.09 -0.26 0.08 0.05 0.23 0.05 0.05 0.08 0.05 -0.03</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2007 0.33 -0.01 0.03 -0.20 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.07 0.01 -0.01</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2008 0.07 0.00 -0.01 0.01 -0.01 0.03 -0.15 0.02 0.02 0.05 0.03 0.11</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2009 -0.31 0.09 0.03 0.35 0.03 0.03 0.01 0.02 0.02</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> THIRD PART:</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> ERROR ANALYSIS</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> FINAL ESTIMATION ERROR REVISION IN CONCURRENT ESTIMATOR</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> ACF (LAG) TREND-CYCLE ADJUSTED TREND-CYCLE ADJUSTED</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1 0.869 0.678 0.740 0.750</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2 0.624 0.463 0.521 0.526</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 3 0.412 0.292 0.326 0.323</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 4 0.232 0.148 0.161 0.149</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 5 0.090 0.036 0.026 0.009</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 6 -0.013 -0.044 -0.077 -0.097</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 7 -0.078 -0.093 -0.145 -0.167</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 8 -0.109 -0.113 -0.179 -0.201</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 9 -0.110 -0.108 -0.180 -0.199</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 10 -0.087 -0.084 -0.148 -0.162</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 11 -0.051 -0.056 -0.086 -0.090</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 12 -0.019 0.068 -0.024 0.044</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> VAR.(*) 0.134 0.161 0.353 0.320</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> TOTAL ESTIMATION ERROR (CONCURRENT ESTIMATOR)</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> ----------------------</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> ACF (LAG) TREND-CYCLE ADJUSTED</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1 0.775 0.726</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2 0.549 0.505</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 3 0.350 0.312</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 4 0.180 0.149</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 5 0.043 0.018</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 6 -0.059 -0.080</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 7 -0.127 -0.142</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 8 -0.160 -0.171</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 9 -0.160 -0.168</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 10 -0.131 -0.136</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 11 -0.076 -0.079</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 12 -0.023 0.052</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> VAR.(*) 0.487 0.481</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> (*) IN UNITS OF VAR(A)</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> VARIANCE OF THE REVISION ERROR (*)</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> ------------------------------</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> ADDITIONAL TREND-CYCLE ADJUSTED</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> PERIODS</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 0 0.3530 0.3197 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 12 0.4590E-03 0.1819E-02</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 24 -0.6468E-17 -0.1646E-16</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 36 -0.6468E-17 -0.1646E-16</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 48 -0.6468E-17 -0.1646E-16</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 60 -0.6468E-17 -0.1646E-16</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> PERCENTAGE REDUCTION IN THE STANDARD ERROR OF THE REVISION AFTER ADDITIONAL YEARS</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> (COMPARISON WITH CONCURRENT ESTIMATORS)</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> AFTER 1 YEAR 96.39 92.46 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> AFTER 2 YEAR 100.0 100.0 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> AFTER 3 YEAR 100.0 100.0 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> AFTER 4 YEAR 100.0 100.0 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> AFTER 5 YEAR 100.0 100.0 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> VARIANCE OF THE REVISION ERROR FOR THE SEASONAL COMPONENT (ONE YEAR AHEAD ADJUSTMENT)</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> PERIODS AHEAD VARIANCE (*)</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 0 0.3197 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1 0.4965 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2 0.6322 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 3 0.7142 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 4 0.7559 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 5 0.7707 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 6 0.7723 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 7 0.7741 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 8 0.7896 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 9 0.8322 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 10 0.9156 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 11 1.053 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 12 1.258 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> AVERAGE PERCENTAGE REDUCTION IN RMSE FROM CONCURRENT ADJUSTMENT 34.07 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> (*) IN UNITS OF VAR(A)</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> DECOMPOSITION OF THE SERIES: RECENT ESTIMATES</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> ---------------------------------------------</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> PERIOD SERIES TREND-CYCLE ADJUSTED</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> ESTIMATE STANDARD ERROR ESTIMATE STANDARD ERROR</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> TOTAL OF REVISION TOTAL OF REVISION</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -24 2.155 2.146 0.2295E-02 0.1073E-25 2.147 0.2517E-02 0.2135E-25</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -23 2.131 2.137 0.2295E-02 0.7447E-24 2.137 0.2517E-02 0.1482E-23</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -22 2.131 2.129 0.2295E-02 0.5170E-22 2.129 0.2517E-02 0.1029E-21</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -21 2.131 2.121 0.2295E-02 0.3589E-20 2.120 0.2517E-02 0.7144E-20</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -20 2.105 2.112 0.2295E-02 0.2491E-18 2.113 0.2517E-02 0.4959E-18</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -19 2.105 2.104 0.2295E-02 0.1730E-16 2.104 0.2517E-02 0.3443E-16</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -18 2.105 2.095 0.2295E-02 0.1201E-14 2.096 0.2517E-02 0.2390E-14</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -17 2.066 2.087 0.2295E-02 0.8335E-13 2.086 0.2517E-02 0.1659E-12</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -16 2.066 2.078 0.2295E-02 0.5786E-11 2.078 0.2517E-02 0.1152E-10</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -15 2.066 2.070 0.2295E-02 0.4017E-09 2.069 0.2517E-02 0.7995E-09</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -14 2.066 2.062 0.2295E-02 0.2788E-07 2.063 0.2517E-02 0.5550E-07</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -13 2.066 2.054 0.2295E-02 0.1936E-05 2.054 0.2517E-02 0.3853E-05</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -12 2.066 2.045 0.2299E-02 0.1344E-03 2.046 0.2531E-02 0.2675E-03</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -11 2.029 2.037 0.2331E-02 0.4056E-03 2.036 0.2652E-02 0.8344E-03</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -10 2.029 2.028 0.2377E-02 0.6193E-03 2.028 0.2693E-02 0.9567E-03</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -9 2.029 2.020 0.2408E-02 0.7274E-03 2.020 0.2720E-02 0.1030E-02</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -8 2.005 2.012 0.2421E-02 0.7699E-03 2.012 0.2731E-02 0.1060E-02</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -7 2.005 2.004 0.2422E-02 0.7740E-03 2.004 0.2732E-02 0.1063E-02</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -6 2.005 1.995 0.2426E-02 0.7858E-03 1.996 0.2736E-02 0.1072E-02</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -5 1.960 1.987 0.2458E-02 0.8789E-03 1.987 0.2764E-02 0.1142E-02</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -4 1.960 1.979 0.2554E-02 0.1120E-02 1.979 0.2850E-02 0.1337E-02</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -3 1.960 1.971 0.2757E-02 0.1528E-02 1.970 0.3033E-02 0.1693E-02</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -2 1.972 1.964 0.3104E-02 0.2090E-02 1.964 0.3352E-02 0.2213E-02</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -1 1.972 1.956 0.3618E-02 0.2796E-02 1.956 0.3829E-02 0.2886E-02</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 0 1.972 1.948 0.4377E-02 0.3726E-02 1.948 0.4349E-02 0.3546E-02</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> STANDARD ERROR OF 0.2295E-02 0.2517E-02</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> FINAL ESTIMATOR</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> PERIOD SEASONAL</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> ESTIMATE STANDARD ERROR</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> TOTAL OF REVISION</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -24 0.8088E-02 0.2517E-02 0.2135E-25</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -23 -0.6157E-02 0.2517E-02 0.1482E-23</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -22 0.1733E-02 0.2517E-02 0.1029E-21</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -21 0.1030E-01 0.2517E-02 0.7144E-20</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -20 -0.7388E-02 0.2517E-02 0.4959E-18</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -19 0.1185E-02 0.2517E-02 0.3443E-16</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -18 0.9178E-02 0.2517E-02 0.2390E-14</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -17 -0.1992E-01 0.2517E-02 0.1659E-12</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -16 -0.1195E-01 0.2517E-02 0.1152E-10</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -15 -0.3131E-02 0.2517E-02 0.7995E-09</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -14 0.3175E-02 0.2517E-02 0.5550E-07</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -13 0.1197E-01 0.2517E-02 0.3853E-05</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -12 0.1984E-01 0.2531E-02 0.2675E-03</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -11 -0.7044E-02 0.2652E-02 0.8344E-03</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -10 0.6793E-03 0.2693E-02 0.9567E-03</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -9 0.8936E-02 0.2720E-02 0.1030E-02</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -8 -0.7083E-02 0.2731E-02 0.1060E-02</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -7 0.1119E-02 0.2732E-02 0.1063E-02</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -6 0.9015E-02 0.2736E-02 0.1072E-02</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -5 -0.2675E-01 0.2764E-02 0.1142E-02</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -4 -0.1890E-01 0.2850E-02 0.1337E-02</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -3 -0.1034E-01 0.3033E-02 0.1693E-02</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -2 0.7941E-02 0.3352E-02 0.2213E-02</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -1 0.1653E-01 0.3829E-02 0.2886E-02</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 0 0.2465E-01 0.4349E-02 0.3546E-02</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> STANDARD ERROR OF 0.2517E-02</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> FINAL ESTIMATOR</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> DECOMPOSITION OF THE SERIES: FORECAST</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> ---------------------------------------------</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> PERIOD SERIES TREND-CYCLE ADJUSTED</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> FORECAST S.E. FORECAST STANDARD ERROR FORECAST STANDARD ERROR</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> TOTAL OF REVISION TOTAL OF REVISION</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1 1.934 0.3755E-02 1.940 0.3255E-02 0.2951E-02 1.939 0.5668E-02 0.5078E-02</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2 1.934 0.5310E-02 1.932 0.3996E-02 0.3752E-02 1.931 0.6864E-02 0.6386E-02</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 3 1.933 0.6503E-02 1.923 0.4781E-02 0.4579E-02 1.923 0.8146E-02 0.7747E-02</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 4 1.908 0.7509E-02 1.915 0.5610E-02 0.5439E-02 1.914 0.9507E-02 0.9167E-02</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 5 1.908 0.8395E-02 1.907 0.6479E-02 0.6332E-02 1.905 0.1094E-01 0.1065E-01</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 6 1.907 0.9197E-02 1.898 0.7388E-02 0.7260E-02 1.897 0.1245E-01 0.1219E-01</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 7 1.862 0.9934E-02 1.890 0.8336E-02 0.8222E-02 1.888 0.1402E-01 0.1379E-01</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 8 1.861 0.1062E-01 1.881 0.9319E-02 0.9217E-02 1.879 0.1565E-01 0.1545E-01</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 9 1.861 0.1126E-01 1.873 0.1034E-01 0.1025E-01 1.870 0.1734E-01 0.1716E-01</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 10 1.872 0.1187E-01 1.864 0.1139E-01 0.1131E-01 1.861 0.1910E-01 0.1893E-01</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 11 1.872 0.1245E-01 1.855 0.1248E-01 0.1240E-01 1.852 0.2091E-01 0.2075E-01</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 12 1.871 0.1301E-01 1.847 0.1360E-01 0.1353E-01 1.843 0.2277E-01 0.2263E-01</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 13 1.833 0.1718E-01 1.838 0.1475E-01 0.1468E-01 1.834 0.2469E-01 0.2456E-01</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 14 1.831 0.2052E-01 1.829 0.1593E-01 0.1587E-01 1.825 0.2666E-01 0.2654E-01</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 15 1.830 0.2339E-01 1.820 0.1714E-01 0.1708E-01 1.815 0.2867E-01 0.2856E-01</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 16 1.804 0.2595E-01 1.811 0.1838E-01 0.1833E-01 1.806 0.3074E-01 0.3064E-01</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 17 1.803 0.2827E-01 1.801 0.1964E-01 0.1960E-01 1.797 0.3286E-01 0.3276E-01</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 18 1.801 0.3042E-01 1.792 0.2094E-01 0.2090E-01 1.787 0.3502E-01 0.3493E-01</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 19 1.755 0.3242E-01 1.783 0.2226E-01 0.2222E-01 1.777 0.3723E-01 0.3714E-01</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 20 1.753 0.3431E-01 1.773 0.2361E-01 0.2357E-01 1.768 0.3948E-01 0.3940E-01</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 21 1.752 0.3610E-01 1.764 0.2499E-01 0.2495E-01 1.758 0.4177E-01 0.4170E-01</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 22 1.762 0.3781E-01 1.754 0.2639E-01 0.2635E-01 1.748 0.4411E-01 0.4404E-01</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 23 1.761 0.3944E-01 1.744 0.2782E-01 0.2778E-01 1.738 0.4650E-01 0.4643E-01</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 24 1.760 0.4101E-01 1.735 0.2927E-01 0.2923E-01 1.728 0.4892E-01 0.4885E-01</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div> </div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> PERIOD SEASONAL</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> FORECAST STANDARD ERROR</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> TOTAL OF REVISION</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1 -0.5175E-02 0.5086E-02 0.4420E-02</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2 0.2301E-02 0.5586E-02 0.4987E-02</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 3 0.9851E-02 0.5868E-02 0.5301E-02</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 4 -0.6485E-02 0.6006E-02 0.5453E-02</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 5 0.1213E-02 0.6054E-02 0.5506E-02</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 6 0.8986E-02 0.6060E-02 0.5512E-02</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 7 -0.2800E-01 0.6065E-02 0.5518E-02</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 8 -0.2008E-01 0.6115E-02 0.5573E-02</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 9 -0.1209E-01 0.6251E-02 0.5722E-02</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 10 0.8327E-02 0.6508E-02 0.6002E-02</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 11 0.1647E-01 0.6911E-02 0.6436E-02</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 12 0.2469E-01 0.7472E-02 0.7035E-02</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 13 -0.5175E-02 0.8021E-02 0.7616E-02</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 14 0.2301E-02 0.8347E-02 0.7959E-02</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 15 0.9851E-02 0.8538E-02 0.8159E-02</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 16 -0.6485E-02 0.8634E-02 0.8259E-02</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 17 0.1213E-02 0.8667E-02 0.8294E-02</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 18 0.8986E-02 0.8671E-02 0.8298E-02</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 19 -0.2800E-01 0.8675E-02 0.8302E-02</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 20 -0.2008E-01 0.8710E-02 0.8339E-02</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 21 -0.1209E-01 0.8806E-02 0.8439E-02</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 22 0.8327E-02 0.8990E-02 0.8631E-02</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 23 0.1647E-01 0.9286E-02 0.8938E-02</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 24 0.2469E-01 0.9711E-02 0.9379E-02</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> DUE TO THE APPROXIMATION, THE S.E.</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> OF THE COMPONENT MAY BE UNRELIABLE</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> CONFIDENCE INTERVAL AROUND A SEASONAL FACTOR OF 100</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> ---------------------------------------------------</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> FINAL ESTIMATOR CONCURRENT ESTIMATOR</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 95%</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> CONFIDENCE 99.51 100.5 99.15 100.9 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> INTERVAL</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 70%</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> CONFIDENCE 99.74 100.3 99.55 100.5 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> INTERVAL</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> SAMPLE MEANS</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> ------------</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> COMPLETE PERIOD LAST THREE YEARS</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> SERIES 2.323 2.092 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> TREND-CYCLE 2.323 2.091 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> ADJUSTED 2.323 2.091 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> SEASONAL -0.9032E-04 0.8495E-03</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> STANDARD ERROR OF THE RATES OF GROWTH ESTIMATES</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -----------------------------------------------</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> (IN POINTS OF NONANNUALIZED PERCENT GROWTH)</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> (LINEAR APPROXIMATION)</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1. PERIOD TO PERIOD RATE OF GROWTH OF THE SERIES (T11)</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> TREND-CYCLE SEASONALLY ADJ. SERIES</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> CONCURRENT ESTIMATOR 0.160 0.248</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1 - PERIOD REVISION 0.148 0.247</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2 - PERIOD REVISION 0.141 0.243</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 3 - PERIOD REVISION 0.136 0.240</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 4 - PERIOD REVISION 0.131 0.237</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 5 - PERIOD REVISION 0.128 0.235</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 6 - PERIOD REVISION 0.125 0.234</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 7 - PERIOD REVISION 0.123 0.233</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 8 - PERIOD REVISION 0.122 0.232</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 9 - PERIOD REVISION 0.121 0.232</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 10 - PERIOD REVISION 0.121 0.232</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 11 - PERIOD REVISION 0.121 0.230</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 12 - PERIOD REVISION 0.118 0.204</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> FINAL ESTIMATOR 0.117 0.202</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2. RATE OF GROWTH OF A 3 - PERIOD (CENTERED) MOVING AVERAGE (T31)</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> TREND-CYCLE SEASONALLY ADJ. SERIES</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> CONCURRENT ESTIMATOR 0.407 0.460</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1 - PERIOD REVISION 0.365 0.404</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2 - PERIOD REVISION 0.337 0.391</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 3 - PERIOD REVISION 0.316 0.373</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 4 - PERIOD REVISION 0.299 0.359</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 5 - PERIOD REVISION 0.285 0.347</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 6 - PERIOD REVISION 0.274 0.338</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 7 - PERIOD REVISION 0.266 0.332</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 8 - PERIOD REVISION 0.261 0.328</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 9 - PERIOD REVISION 0.258 0.326</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 10 - PERIOD REVISION 0.258 0.321</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 11 - PERIOD REVISION 0.257 0.315</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 12 - PERIOD REVISION 0.252 0.311</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> FINAL ESTIMATOR 0.249 0.300</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 3. ACCUMULATED RATE OVER THE LAST DECEMBER (ANNUAL GROWTH)</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> CONCURRENT ESTIMATOR FINAL ESTIMATOR</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> TREND-CYCLE SEASONALLY ADJ. SERIES TREND-CYCLE SEASONALLY ADJ. SERIES</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> JANUARY 1.915 2.970 1.410 2.425</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> FEBRUARY 1.671 1.995 1.194 1.565</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> MARCH 1.462 1.615 0.996 1.198</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> APRIL 1.300 1.388 0.853 0.986</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> MAY 1.164 1.221 0.743 0.839</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> JUNE 1.045 1.085 0.653 0.728</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> JULY 0.937 0.966 0.578 0.638</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> AUGUST 0.837 0.860 0.513 0.563</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> SEPTEMBER 0.744 0.762 0.456 0.500</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> OCTOBER 0.655 0.671 0.406 0.445</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> NOVEMBER 0.572 0.587 0.363 0.399</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> DECEMBER 0.503 0.483 0.328 0.344</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> (CENTERED) ESTIMATOR OF THE PRESENT</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> RATE OF ANNUAL GROWTH, T(1 12)</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> (LINEAR APPROXIMATION)</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> STANDARD TREND-CYCLE SEAS. ADJ. ORIGINAL</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> ERROR SERIES SERIES</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> CONCURRENT 1.438 1.454 1.639</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> ESTIMATOR</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> FINAL ESTI- 0.328 0.344 0.000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> MATOR</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> SERIES OF LEVELS (INCLUDING FORECASTS) HAVE</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> BEEN CORRECTED FOR BIAS IN OVERALL LEVEL.</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> ANNUAL AVERAGES</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> ---------------</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> (including forecasting period)</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> YEAR SERIES ADJUSTED TREND-CYCLE</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> SERIES</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1999 11.36 11.35 11.34 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2000 11.51 11.49 11.49 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2001 11.55 11.55 11.56 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2002 11.63 11.63 11.63 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2003 11.53 11.52 11.52 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2004 10.99 10.98 10.98 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2005 10.23 10.24 10.24 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2006 9.512 9.523 9.524 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2007 8.735 8.736 8.736 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2008 7.900 7.897 7.897 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2009 7.156 7.154 7.154 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2010 6.461 6.462 6.462 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2011 5.772 5.773 5.773 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> FULL PERIOD 9.564 9.562 9.562 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> AVERAGE VALUE OF ABSOLUTE</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> DIFFERENCES IN ANNUAL AVERAGES :</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> (in % of average level)</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> ADJUSTED SERIES : 0.661E-01</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> TREND-CYCLE : 0.713E-01</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> FOURTH PART:</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> ESTIMATES OF THE COMPONENTS (LEVELS)</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> ORIGINAL SERIES</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> ---------------</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> (Corrected by TRAMO)</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1998 11.000 11.000 11.000 11.100 11.100 11.100 11.200 11.200 11.200</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1999 11.400 11.400 11.400 11.195 11.195 11.195 11.288 11.288 11.288 11.568 11.568 11.568</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2000 11.541 11.541 11.541 11.342 11.342 11.342 11.334 11.334 11.334 11.807 11.807 11.807</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2001 11.587 11.587 11.587 11.432 11.432 11.432 11.325 11.325 11.325 11.864 11.864 11.864</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2002 11.648 11.648 11.648 11.557 11.557 11.557 11.445 11.445 11.445 11.858 11.858 11.858</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2003 11.621 11.621 11.621 11.502 11.502 11.502 11.384 11.384 11.384 11.621 11.621 11.621</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2004 11.193 11.193 11.193 10.983 10.983 10.983 10.806 10.806 10.806 10.966 10.966 10.966</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2005 10.434 10.434 10.434 10.273 10.273 10.273 10.031 10.031 10.031 10.164 10.164 10.164</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2006 9.740 9.740 9.740 9.634 9.634 9.634 9.337 9.337 9.337 9.337 9.337 9.337</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2007 9.051 9.051 9.051 8.840 8.840 8.840 8.630 8.630 8.630 8.419 8.419 8.419</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2008 8.209 8.209 8.209 7.893 7.893 7.893 7.893 7.893 7.893 7.605 7.605 7.605</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2009 7.425 7.425 7.425 7.099 7.099 7.099 7.187 7.187 7.187</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> STOCHASTIC COMPONENT</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> --------------------</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> SEASONAL FACTORS (X 100)</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1998 99.32 99.15 98.98 99.70 99.54 99.32 100.33 100.10 100.02</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1999 101.29 101.21 101.04 99.09 98.92 98.80 99.33 99.22 99.08 101.42 101.30 101.17</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2000 100.88 100.77 100.66 98.89 98.80 98.72 98.58 98.51 98.48 102.35 102.33 102.22</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2001 100.56 100.45 100.41 99.06 99.02 98.95 98.11 98.03 98.04 102.35 102.36 102.31</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2002 100.36 100.32 100.31 99.35 99.36 99.34 98.37 98.37 98.41 101.92 101.98 102.10</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2003 99.87 100.03 100.17 99.18 99.38 99.60 98.71 98.99 99.24 101.79 102.11 102.47</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2004 99.18 99.58 99.98 98.78 99.21 99.71 98.58 99.11 99.64 101.75 102.32 102.84</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2005 98.75 99.26 99.85 98.93 99.51 100.10 98.32 98.90 99.53 101.24 101.89 102.48</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2006 98.88 99.46 100.14 99.38 100.08 100.66 98.44 99.03 99.74 100.22 100.96 101.69</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2007 99.19 99.94 100.70 99.06 99.85 100.58 99.27 100.02 100.81 99.38 100.17 101.03</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2008 99.26 100.12 100.92 98.03 98.81 99.68 100.32 101.20 102.00 99.30 100.07 100.89</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2009 99.29 100.11 100.90 97.36 98.12 98.97 100.79 101.66 102.49</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> STANDARD ERROR OF SEASONAL FACTORS (X 100)</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1998 0.42 0.37 0.33 0.30 0.28 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1999 0.27 0.27 0.26 0.25 0.24 0.24 0.25 0.24 0.24 0.25 0.25 0.25</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2000 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.25 0.25 0.25</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2001 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.25 0.25 0.25</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2002 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.25 0.25 0.25</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2003 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.24 0.25 0.25 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.25 0.25 0.25</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2004 0.24 0.25 0.25 0.24 0.24 0.25 0.24 0.24 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2005 0.24 0.24 0.25 0.24 0.25 0.25 0.24 0.24 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2006 0.24 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.24 0.24 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2007 0.24 0.25 0.25 0.24 0.25 0.25 0.24 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2008 0.24 0.25 0.25 0.24 0.24 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.26 0.26 0.27</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2009 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.26 0.27 0.29 0.33 0.38 0.44</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> TREND-CYCLE</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1998 11.075 11.095 11.114 11.133 11.151 11.165 11.175 11.189 11.212</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1999 11.240 11.264 11.282 11.299 11.317 11.337 11.358 11.377 11.392 11.407 11.420 11.432</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2000 11.442 11.453 11.462 11.471 11.480 11.489 11.497 11.506 11.516 11.529 11.538 11.539</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2001 11.535 11.534 11.538 11.541 11.545 11.548 11.549 11.553 11.563 11.578 11.590 11.597</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2002 11.605 11.611 11.618 11.626 11.631 11.633 11.634 11.634 11.633 11.632 11.628 11.625</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2003 11.625 11.618 11.606 11.592 11.574 11.552 11.529 11.500 11.464 11.423 11.381 11.337</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2004 11.289 11.239 11.186 11.128 11.071 11.016 10.960 10.903 10.843 10.780 10.717 10.650</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2005 10.578 10.511 10.448 10.386 10.324 10.263 10.202 10.143 10.086 10.032 9.975 9.915</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2006 9.853 9.793 9.737 9.684 9.627 9.562 9.494 9.428 9.368 9.309 9.248 9.184</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2007 9.121 9.056 8.990 8.923 8.854 8.780 8.703 8.628 8.554 8.478 8.405 8.336</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2008 8.268 8.199 8.129 8.057 7.989 7.924 7.863 7.799 7.733 7.665 7.600 7.538</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2009 7.477 7.416 7.356 7.294 7.235 7.179 7.125 7.069 7.012</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> STANDARD ERROR OF TREND-CYCLE</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> X 10.0D-1</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1998 0.475 0.393 0.338 0.301 0.279 0.269 0.266 0.266 0.266</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1999 0.265 0.262 0.258 0.255 0.255 0.255 0.255 0.256 0.256 0.257 0.257 0.257</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2000 0.257 0.258 0.258 0.258 0.258 0.258 0.259 0.259 0.259 0.259 0.260 0.260</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2001 0.259 0.259 0.260 0.260 0.260 0.260 0.260 0.260 0.260 0.260 0.261 0.261</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2002 0.261 0.261 0.261 0.262 0.262 0.262 0.262 0.262 0.262 0.262 0.262 0.261</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2003 0.261 0.261 0.261 0.261 0.260 0.260 0.259 0.259 0.258 0.257 0.256 0.255</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2004 0.254 0.253 0.252 0.250 0.249 0.248 0.247 0.245 0.244 0.242 0.241 0.240</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2005 0.238 0.236 0.235 0.234 0.232 0.231 0.229 0.228 0.227 0.226 0.224 0.223</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2006 0.222 0.220 0.219 0.218 0.217 0.215 0.214 0.212 0.211 0.209 0.208 0.207</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2007 0.205 0.204 0.202 0.201 0.199 0.197 0.196 0.194 0.192 0.191 0.189 0.187</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2008 0.186 0.184 0.183 0.181 0.180 0.178 0.177 0.175 0.174 0.175 0.177 0.178</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2009 0.177 0.176 0.175 0.176 0.181 0.194 0.217 0.251 0.301</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SERIES</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1998 11.075 11.095 11.114 11.134 11.151 11.176 11.164 11.188 11.197</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1999 11.255 11.264 11.282 11.298 11.317 11.331 11.364 11.377 11.393 11.406 11.420 11.435</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2000 11.440 11.453 11.465 11.469 11.480 11.489 11.497 11.506 11.508 11.537 11.538 11.551</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2001 11.522 11.534 11.539 11.540 11.545 11.554 11.543 11.552 11.551 11.591 11.590 11.595</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2002 11.606 11.611 11.612 11.632 11.631 11.633 11.635 11.634 11.630 11.634 11.628 11.614</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2003 11.636 11.618 11.601 11.597 11.574 11.549 11.532 11.500 11.471 11.416 11.381 11.340</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2004 11.285 11.239 11.195 11.119 11.071 11.015 10.962 10.903 10.846 10.777 10.717 10.663</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2005 10.565 10.511 10.449 10.385 10.324 10.263 10.202 10.143 10.078 10.039 9.975 9.917</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2006 9.851 9.793 9.726 9.695 9.627 9.571 9.485 9.428 9.361 9.316 9.248 9.181</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2007 9.125 9.056 8.988 8.924 8.854 8.789 8.693 8.628 8.561 8.472 8.405 8.333</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2008 8.270 8.199 8.134 8.052 7.988 7.918 7.868 7.800 7.738 7.659 7.600 7.537</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2009 7.478 7.416 7.358 7.292 7.235 7.173 7.131 7.070 7.012</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> STANDARD ERROR OF SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SERIES</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> X 10.0D-1</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1998 0.472 0.416 0.365 0.331 0.311 0.303 0.299 0.300 0.300</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1999 0.300 0.297 0.293 0.280 0.279 0.280 0.280 0.281 0.281 0.281 0.282 0.282</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2000 0.282 0.282 0.283 0.283 0.283 0.283 0.284 0.284 0.284 0.285 0.285 0.285</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2001 0.284 0.285 0.285 0.285 0.285 0.285 0.285 0.285 0.285 0.286 0.286 0.286</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2002 0.286 0.286 0.286 0.287 0.287 0.287 0.287 0.287 0.287 0.287 0.287 0.286</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2003 0.287 0.287 0.286 0.286 0.285 0.285 0.284 0.284 0.283 0.282 0.281 0.280</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2004 0.278 0.277 0.276 0.274 0.273 0.272 0.270 0.269 0.268 0.266 0.264 0.263</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2005 0.261 0.259 0.258 0.256 0.255 0.253 0.252 0.250 0.249 0.248 0.246 0.245</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2006 0.243 0.242 0.240 0.239 0.237 0.236 0.234 0.233 0.231 0.230 0.228 0.226</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2007 0.225 0.223 0.222 0.220 0.218 0.217 0.214 0.213 0.211 0.209 0.207 0.206</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2008 0.204 0.202 0.201 0.199 0.197 0.195 0.194 0.192 0.192 0.199 0.201 0.201</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2009 0.200 0.199 0.197 0.198 0.202 0.213 0.234 0.265 0.299</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> IRREGULAR FACTORS (X 100)</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1998 100.01 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.10 99.90 100.00 99.87</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1999 100.13 100.00 100.00 99.99 100.00 99.95 100.05 100.00 100.01 99.99 100.00 100.02</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2000 99.98 100.00 100.02 99.98 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 99.93 100.07 100.00 100.11</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2001 99.89 100.00 100.01 99.99 100.00 100.05 99.95 100.00 99.89 100.11 100.00 99.98</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2002 100.02 100.00 99.95 100.05 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 99.98 100.02 100.00 99.90</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2003 100.10 100.00 99.96 100.04 100.00 99.97 100.03 100.00 100.06 99.94 100.00 100.03</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2004 99.97 100.00 100.08 99.92 100.00 99.99 100.01 100.00 100.03 99.97 100.00 100.12</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2005 99.88 100.00 100.01 99.99 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 99.93 100.07 100.00 100.03</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2006 99.97 100.00 99.89 100.11 100.00 100.10 99.90 100.00 99.93 100.07 100.00 99.96</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2007 100.04 100.00 99.98 100.02 100.00 100.11 99.89 100.00 100.08 99.92 100.00 99.97</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2008 100.03 100.00 100.06 99.94 100.00 99.92 100.08 100.00 100.07 99.92 100.00 99.99</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2009 100.01 100.00 100.04 99.96 100.00 99.92 100.08 100.00 100.01</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> FORECAST OF COMPONENTS (LEVELS)</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -------------------------------</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> PERIOD SERIES TREND-CYCLE ADJUSTED</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> FORECAST S.E. FORECAST S.E. FORECAST S.E.</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1 6.920 0.2546E-01 6.958 0.2218E-01 5.925 0.3863E-01</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2 6.916 0.3599E-01 6.902 0.2700E-01 5.914 0.4639E-01</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 3 6.913 0.4406E-01 6.845 0.3204E-01 5.903 0.5459E-01</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 4 6.743 0.4962E-01 6.788 0.3728E-01 5.749 0.6317E-01</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 5 6.739 0.5545E-01 6.732 0.4269E-01 5.738 0.7209E-01</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 6 6.736 0.6071E-01 6.676 0.4826E-01 5.727 0.8129E-01</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 7 6.436 0.6265E-01 6.619 0.5397E-01 5.463 0.9076E-01</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 8 6.433 0.6695E-01 6.563 0.5982E-01 5.453 0.1005 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 9 6.430 0.7098E-01 6.507 0.6577E-01 5.442 0.1103 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 10 6.503 0.7567E-01 6.451 0.7183E-01 5.494 0.1204 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 11 6.500 0.7933E-01 6.395 0.7798E-01 5.483 0.1306 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 12 6.497 0.8282E-01 6.339 0.8420E-01 5.472 0.1410 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 13 6.249 0.1052 6.282 0.9050E-01 5.255 0.1515 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 14 6.241 0.1256 6.226 0.9685E-01 5.239 0.1621 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 15 6.232 0.1429 6.170 0.1032 5.222 0.1727 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 16 6.073 0.1545 6.114 0.1097 5.080 0.1835 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 17 6.065 0.1681 6.058 0.1162 5.064 0.1943 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 18 6.057 0.1807 6.002 0.1226 5.048 0.2051 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 19 5.781 0.1838 5.947 0.1292 4.809 0.2160 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 20 5.774 0.1943 5.891 0.1357 4.794 0.2268 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 21 5.766 0.2042 5.835 0.1422 4.778 0.2377 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 22 5.826 0.2161 5.779 0.1487 4.818 0.2486 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 23 5.818 0.2251 5.723 0.1552 4.802 0.2595 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 24 5.811 0.2338 5.668 0.1617 4.786 0.2703 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div> </div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> PERIOD SEASONAL FACTORS</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> FORECAST S.E.</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1 99.48 0.4959 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2 100.2 0.5487 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 3 101.0 0.5807 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 4 99.35 0.5848 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 5 100.1 0.5941 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 6 100.9 0.5992 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 7 97.24 0.5780 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 8 98.01 0.5874 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 9 98.80 0.6052 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 10 100.8 0.6431 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 11 101.7 0.6885 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 12 102.5 0.7506 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 13 99.48 0.7820 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 14 100.2 0.8199 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 15 101.0 0.8450 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 16 99.35 0.8406 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 17 100.1 0.8505 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 18 100.9 0.8575 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 19 97.24 0.8267 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 20 98.01 0.8366 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 21 98.80 0.8526 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 22 100.8 0.8884 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 23 101.7 0.9252 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 24 102.5 0.9755 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> THE APPROXIMATION WILL LIKELY INDUCE</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> NOZERO IRREGULAR FORECASTS,</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> AND HENCE THE FORECAST OF THE ADJUSTED</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> SERIES WILL NOT BE THAT OF THE TREND-CYCLE</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> DETERMINISTIC COMPONENT (from TRAMO)</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> ------------------------------------</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> LEVEL SHIFT (X100)</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1998 100.000 100.000 100.000 100.000 100.000 100.000 100.000 100.000 100.000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1999 100.000 100.000 100.000 107.192 107.192 107.192 107.192 107.192 107.192 107.192 107.192 107.192</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2000 100.513 100.513 100.513 100.513 100.513 100.513 98.820 98.820 98.820 90.620 90.620 90.620</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2001 90.620 90.620 90.620 92.719 92.719 92.719 92.719 92.719 92.719 92.719 92.719 92.719</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2002 92.719 92.719 92.719 89.124 89.124 89.124 89.124 89.124 89.124 84.330 84.330 84.330</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2003 84.330 84.330 84.330 84.330 84.330 84.330 84.330 84.330 84.330 84.330 84.330 84.330</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2004 95.600 95.600 95.600 95.600 95.600 95.600 97.165 97.165 97.165 93.928 93.928 93.928</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2005 93.928 93.928 93.928 96.367 96.367 96.367 100.683 100.683 100.683 94.453 94.453 94.453</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2006 94.453 94.453 94.453 94.453 94.453 94.453 93.180 93.180 93.180 93.180 93.180 93.180</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2007 95.018 95.018 95.018 95.018 95.018 95.018 95.018 95.018 95.018 95.018 95.018 95.018</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2008 95.018 95.018 95.018 95.018 95.018 95.018 95.018 95.018 95.018 103.884 103.884 103.884</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2009 118.525 118.525 118.525 129.595 129.595 129.595 134.962 134.962 134.962</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> FINAL DECOMPOSITION</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> -------------------</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> ORIGINAL UNCORRECTED SERIES (from TRAMO)</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1998 11.000 11.000 11.000 11.100 11.100 11.100 11.200 11.200 11.200</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1999 11.400 11.400 11.400 12.000 12.000 12.000 12.100 12.100 12.100 12.400 12.400 12.400</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2000 11.600 11.600 11.600 11.400 11.400 11.400 11.200 11.200 11.200 10.700 10.700 10.700</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2001 10.500 10.500 10.500 10.600 10.600 10.600 10.500 10.500 10.500 11.000 11.000 11.000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2002 10.800 10.800 10.800 10.300 10.300 10.300 10.200 10.200 10.200 10.000 10.000 10.000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2003 9.800 9.800 9.800 9.700 9.700 9.700 9.600 9.600 9.600 9.800 9.800 9.800</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2004 10.700 10.700 10.700 10.500 10.500 10.500 10.500 10.500 10.500 10.300 10.300 10.300</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2005 9.800 9.800 9.800 9.900 9.900 9.900 10.100 10.100 10.100 9.600 9.600 9.600</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2006 9.200 9.200 9.200 9.100 9.100 9.100 8.700 8.700 8.700 8.700 8.700 8.700</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2007 8.600 8.600 8.600 8.400 8.400 8.400 8.200 8.200 8.200 8.000 8.000 8.000</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2008 7.800 7.800 7.800 7.500 7.500 7.500 7.500 7.500 7.500 7.900 7.900 7.900</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2009 8.800 8.800 8.800 9.200 9.200 9.200 9.700 9.700 9.700</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> FINAL COMPONENT</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> ---------------</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> FINAL SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SERIES</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1998 11.075 11.095 11.114 11.134 11.151 11.176 11.164 11.188 11.197</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1999 11.255 11.264 11.282 12.111 12.131 12.146 12.182 12.195 12.212 12.226 12.241 12.257</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2000 11.498 11.511 11.524 11.527 11.539 11.548 11.361 11.370 11.372 10.455 10.456 10.468</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2001 10.441 10.452 10.457 10.700 10.705 10.713 10.702 10.711 10.710 10.747 10.746 10.751</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2002 10.761 10.765 10.767 10.367 10.366 10.368 10.369 10.369 10.365 9.811 9.806 9.794</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2003 9.813 9.797 9.783 9.780 9.761 9.739 9.725 9.698 9.673 9.627 9.597 9.563</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2004 10.788 10.745 10.702 10.630 10.584 10.530 10.651 10.594 10.538 10.122 10.067 10.016</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2005 9.924 9.873 9.814 10.008 9.949 9.890 10.272 10.212 10.147 9.482 9.422 9.367</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2006 9.304 9.250 9.187 9.157 9.093 9.040 8.838 8.785 8.722 8.681 8.617 8.555</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2007 8.670 8.605 8.540 8.480 8.413 8.352 8.260 8.198 8.134 8.050 7.986 7.918</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2008 7.858 7.791 7.729 7.651 7.590 7.524 7.476 7.411 7.353 7.956 7.895 7.830</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2009 8.863 8.790 8.721 9.450 9.376 9.296 9.624 9.541 9.464</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> FINAL TREND-CYCLE</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1998 11.075 11.095 11.114 11.133 11.151 11.165 11.175 11.189 11.212</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1999 11.240 11.264 11.282 12.112 12.131 12.152 12.175 12.195 12.212 12.227 12.241 12.254</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2000 11.501 11.511 11.521 11.530 11.539 11.548 11.362 11.370 11.380 10.448 10.456 10.456</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2001 10.453 10.453 10.456 10.701 10.705 10.707 10.708 10.711 10.721 10.735 10.746 10.753</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2002 10.760 10.766 10.772 10.362 10.366 10.368 10.369 10.369 10.368 9.809 9.806 9.804</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2003 9.803 9.797 9.787 9.776 9.761 9.742 9.722 9.698 9.668 9.633 9.597 9.560</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2004 10.792 10.745 10.694 10.638 10.584 10.532 10.650 10.594 10.535 10.125 10.066 10.003</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2005 9.936 9.873 9.814 10.008 9.949 9.890 10.272 10.212 10.155 9.475 9.422 9.365</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2006 9.307 9.250 9.197 9.147 9.093 9.032 8.846 8.785 8.729 8.674 8.617 8.558</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2007 8.667 8.605 8.542 8.478 8.413 8.343 8.269 8.198 8.128 8.056 7.987 7.921</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2008 7.856 7.791 7.724 7.656 7.591 7.529 7.471 7.411 7.347 7.962 7.895 7.831</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2009 8.862 8.790 8.718 9.453 9.376 9.303 9.616 9.541 9.464</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> FINAL SEASONAL FACTORS</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1998 99.320 99.145 98.977 99.697 99.539 99.320 100.326 100.104 100.023</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 1999 101.292 101.209 101.044 99.087 98.921 98.798 99.330 99.219 99.079 101.421 101.295 101.167</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2000 100.883 100.769 100.662 98.895 98.799 98.720 98.579 98.507 98.484 102.345 102.335 102.217</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2001 100.561 100.455 100.412 99.065 99.020 98.945 98.111 98.028 98.040 102.355 102.363 102.315</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2002 100.360 100.321 100.310 99.354 99.360 99.345 98.368 98.375 98.406 101.922 101.981 102.103</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2003 99.868 100.026 100.170 99.185 99.380 99.600 98.711 98.989 99.242 101.792 102.111 102.475</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2004 99.182 99.584 99.981 98.775 99.207 99.711 98.583 99.114 99.638 101.754 102.319 102.837</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2005 98.754 99.265 99.853 98.925 99.509 100.100 98.323 98.904 99.535 101.242 101.891 102.484</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2006 98.879 99.464 100.144 99.378 100.075 100.659 98.439 99.033 99.745 100.223 100.962 101.695</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2007 99.190 99.940 100.701 99.060 99.848 100.579 99.272 100.024 100.809 99.383 100.171 101.032</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2008 99.261 100.116 100.919 98.025 98.809 99.685 100.315 101.202 102.000 99.295 100.065 100.895</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2009 99.291 100.109 100.903 97.357 98.125 98.968 100.794 101.664 102.492</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> SINCE SEATS HAS RE-ESTIMATED AND CHANGED THE MODEL,</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> THE FORECAST OF THE ORIGINAL (UNCORRECTED) SERIES</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> WILL DIFFER FROM THAT IN TRAMO.</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> FORECAST OF FINAL COMPONENT</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> ORIGINAL SEASONALLY TREND-CYCLE SEASONAL </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> (UNCORRECTED) ADJUSTED FACTORS </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> SERIES SERIES </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 9.337 9.386 9.386 99.48 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 9.329 9.307 9.307 100.2 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 9.320 9.229 9.229 101.0 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 9.092 9.151 9.151 99.35 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 9.083 9.073 9.073 100.1 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 9.075 8.994 8.994 100.9 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 8.670 8.916 8.916 97.24 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 8.662 8.838 8.838 98.01 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 8.654 8.760 8.760 98.80 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 8.754 8.682 8.682 100.8 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 8.746 8.604 8.604 101.7 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 8.738 8.526 8.526 102.5 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 8.404 8.448 8.448 99.48 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 8.389 8.370 8.370 100.2 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 8.374 8.292 8.292 101.0 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 8.161 8.215 8.215 99.35 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 8.147 8.137 8.137 100.1 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 8.132 8.060 8.060 100.9 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 7.762 7.982 7.982 97.24 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 7.748 7.905 7.905 98.01 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 7.734 7.828 7.828 98.80 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 7.816 7.752 7.752 100.8 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 7.802 7.675 7.675 101.7 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 7.789 7.599 7.599 102.5 </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> THE FORECAST OF THE IRREGULAR ABSORBS</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> THE EFFECT OF THE APPROXIMATION.</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> RATE OF GROWTH</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> --------------</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> (Period To Period; In Percentage Points)</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> ORIGINAL SERIES (from TRAMO)</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2007 0.00 -2.44 0.00 0.00</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2008 -2.50 0.00 0.00 -3.85 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.33 0.00 0.00</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2009 11.39 0.00 0.00 4.55 0.00 0.00 5.43 0.00 0.00 -3.74 -0.09 -0.09</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2010 -2.45 -0.09 -0.09 -4.47 -0.09 -0.09 1.15 -0.09 -0.09</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> FINAL SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SERIES</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2007 -0.78 -1.04 -0.79 -0.85</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2008 -0.76 -0.85 -0.80 -1.01 -0.79 -0.88 -0.63 -0.88 -0.78 8.20 -0.77 -0.82</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2009 13.19 -0.82 -0.79 8.35 -0.78 -0.85 3.52 -0.86 -0.81 -0.83 -0.83 -0.84</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2010 -0.85 -0.86 -0.86 -0.87 -0.88 -0.88 -0.89 -0.90 -0.91</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> FINAL TREND-CYCLE</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2007 -0.86 -0.89 -0.86 -0.83</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2008 -0.82 -0.83 -0.86 -0.88 -0.86 -0.81 -0.78 -0.80 -0.85 8.37 -0.85 -0.81</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2009 13.17 -0.81 -0.82 8.43 -0.82 -0.78 3.36 -0.78 -0.81 -0.82 -0.83 -0.84</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> 2010 -0.85 -0.86 -0.86 -0.87 -0.88 -0.88 -0.89 -0.90 -0.91</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">* * PROCESSING COMPLETED * *</span></div><div><br /></div>Tryphon Odinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14604221868631978100noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8590005207364634932.post-71065801353102210052010-03-27T23:36:00.000+02:002010-03-27T23:42:00.135+02:00<div>1. Παίγνια Επιθεώρησης (Inspection Games) Εισαγωγή</div><div><br /></div><div>Στις 24 Οκτωβρίου 2009, η ηλεκτρονική εφημερίδα Bloomberg, ανέφερε ότι</div><div>«Σήμερα, επιθεωρητές από την Διεθνή Επιτροπή Ατομικής Ενέργειας, αναχώρησαν</div><div>από το Διεθνές Αεροδρόμιο της Βιέννης και αναμένεται να φτάσουν στην Τεχεράνη</div><div>αργότερα κατά την διάρκεια της σημερινής ημέρας. Οι επιθεωρητές θα επισκεφτούν</div><div>μία περιοχή που πρόσφατα έκλεισε από Ιρανούς αξιωματούχους, που βρίσκεται κοντά</div><div>στην πόλη Qun, του Ιράν.»1</div><div>Τα Παίγνια Επιθεώρησης αποτελούν έναν εφαρμοσμένο τομέα της θεωρίας</div><div>παιγνίων. Ένα τέτοιο παίγνιο είναι ένα μαθηματικό μοντέλο μιας κατάστασης όπου</div><div>ένας επιθεωρητής επαληθεύει ότι το έτερο μέλος ή ομάδα, που καλείται</div><div>επιθεωρούμενος, εμμένει σε συγκεκριμένους νομικούς κανόνες. Αυτή η νόμιμη</div><div>συμπεριφορά μπορεί να οριστεί, επί παραδείγματι, από μία συνθήκη ελέγχου των</div><div>εξοπλισμών, και ο επιθεωρούμενος έχει το δυνητικό ενδιαφέρον στο να παραβιάσει</div><div>αυτούς τους κανόνες. Τυπικά οι πόροι του επιθεωρητή είναι περιορισμένοι, ώστε η</div><div>επαλήθευση να είναι μερική. Μία μαθηματική ανάλυση θα μπορούσε να βοηθήσει</div><div>στον σχεδιασμό ενός βέλτιστου σχήματος επιθεώρησης, όπου πρέπει να υποτεθεί ότι</div><div>μία παράνομη δράση εκτελείται στρατηγικά. Αυτό ορίζει ένα παίγνιο-θεωρητικό</div><div>πρόβλημα, ανάμεσα σε δύο παίχτες, εδώ από την μία μεριά έχουμε την Διεθνή</div><div>Επιτροπή Ατομικής Ενέργειας ως τον «επιθεωρόντα» και από την άλλη τον</div><div>«επιθεωρούμενο», όπου εδώ είναι οι Ιρανοί αξιωματούχοι. Μερικές φορές ωστόσο.</div><div>Πολλοί επιθεωρούμενοι μπορεί να θεωρηθούν και ως ξεχωριστοί παίχτες.</div><div>Η Θεωρία Παιγνίων δεν είναι μόνο επαρκής για να περιγράψει μία κατάσταση</div><div>επιθεώρησης, επίσης παράγει αποτελέσματα τα οποία μπορούν να χρησιμοποιηθούν</div><div>σε πρακτικές εφαρμογές. Οι πρώτες σοβαρές εφαρμογές έγιναν στις αρχές τις</div><div>δεκαετίας του 1960 όπου οι παίγνιο-θεωρητικές μελέτες επιθεώρησης ελέγχου των</div><div>εξοπλισμών ανατέθηκαν στην Επιτροπή Ελέγχου των Εξοπλισμών και Αφοπλισμού</div><div>των Ηνωμένων Πολιτειών (United States Arms Control and Disarmament Agency,</div><div>ACDA). Επιπλέον, η Διεθνής Επιτροπή Ατομικής Ενέργειας (Δ.Ε.Α.Ε) διενεργεί</div><div>επιθεωρήσεις υπό την Συνθήκη της Μη-Διαδόσεως των Πυρηνικών. Οι κανόνες</div><div>λήψης απόφασης των επιθεωρητών της Δ.Ε.Α.Ε στο να εντοπίζουν μία απόκλιση του</div><div>πυρηνικού υλικού μπορεί να εκληφθεί ως στρατηγικές ισορροπίας σε ένα παίγνιο</div><div>μηδενικού αθροίσματος (zero- sum game) με την πιθανότητα εντοπισμού ως</div><div>συνάρτηση απόδοσης. Σε αυτές τις εφαρμογές, η θεωρία παιγνίων έχει αποδειχθεί</div><div>χρήσιμη ως ένα τεχνικό εργαλείο πλάι στην στατιστική και άλλες μεθόδους της</div><div>επιχειρησιακής έρευνας. Μιας και τα υποκείμενα υποδείγματα θα έπρεπε να είναι</div><div>προσβάσιμα στους επαγγελματίες, παραδοσιακές αντιλήψεις της θεωρίας παιγνίων</div><div>χρησιμοποιούνται, σαν τα παίγνια μηδενικού αθροίσματος ή τα παίγνια εκτεταμένης</div><div>μορφής. Ωστόσο, η λύση των, αποτελεί μαθηματική πρόκληση, και οδηγεί σε</div><div>ενδιαφέροντα ουσιαστικά ερωτήματα επίσης.2</div><div>1 http://www.iaea.org/NewsCenter/News/2009/inspectorsiran.html , International Atomic Energy Agency</div><div>2 Rudolf Avenhaus Universität der Bundeswehr München, Bernhard Von Stengel London School of Economics</div><div>and Shmuel Zamir The Hebrew University of Jerusalem (2002), “Inspection Games”, Handbook of Game Theory</div><div>with Economic Applications, volume 3, no 2. pp 1949- 1950</div><div>1</div>Tryphon Odinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14604221868631978100noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8590005207364634932.post-52512120959972663712009-05-21T20:26:00.001+03:002009-05-21T20:26:39.864+03:00<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10px; white-space: pre; "><object width="480" height="385"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/NllPZ5_Tw40&hl=en&fs=1&color1=0x402061&color2=0x9461ca"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/NllPZ5_Tw40&hl=en&fs=1&color1=0x402061&color2=0x9461ca" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="480" height="385"></embed></object></span>Tryphon Odinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14604221868631978100noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8590005207364634932.post-20128016955700784152009-05-12T14:45:00.003+03:002009-05-12T14:47:44.600+03:00<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQy6k3O1vvAe7Au7HgP0w997AdRiWlh7jYAa0TqBITZXQtcaLNJ-f4qbOEj3b_htNQfBiXfDCR1lAhN2CdufTCRHq6xf8heuAkREgnwbtZK57SDRP3JKNYvkAwU2kZ1jAgPx7uI91g6OCQ/s1600-h/SKOUPIDIA+TIS+TRIPOLIS.jpeg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 320px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQy6k3O1vvAe7Au7HgP0w997AdRiWlh7jYAa0TqBITZXQtcaLNJ-f4qbOEj3b_htNQfBiXfDCR1lAhN2CdufTCRHq6xf8heuAkREgnwbtZK57SDRP3JKNYvkAwU2kZ1jAgPx7uI91g6OCQ/s400/SKOUPIDIA+TIS+TRIPOLIS.jpeg" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5334902722476627954" /></a><br /><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:x-large;">Τα σκουπίδια της Τρίπολης... πρωτεύοντα σκουπίδια</span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:x-small;"></span><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:x-small;">(κατά το πρωτεύουσα πόλη)</span><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:10px;"><br /></span></div></div>Tryphon Odinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14604221868631978100noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8590005207364634932.post-8254562741172351652009-04-05T22:35:00.007+03:002009-04-05T22:58:53.612+03:00<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJ3N7xUjdDy5oA5VgcnV27hueU05JX2xPR2h5FWaMwZ3VNLe5HKc7wqYrbkUpKrZ5aqpaCKbnxorktD1sMD0npCDQ7Ar9mKMCHXVB76Ho4fvwSNXfvq7hpn_ieLYRgx9e6LiiA2kLhmqCS/s1600-h/the+illustrated+poets.jpg"><img style="float:right; margin:0 0 10px 10px;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 280px; height: 367px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJ3N7xUjdDy5oA5VgcnV27hueU05JX2xPR2h5FWaMwZ3VNLe5HKc7wqYrbkUpKrZ5aqpaCKbnxorktD1sMD0npCDQ7Ar9mKMCHXVB76Ho4fvwSNXfvq7hpn_ieLYRgx9e6LiiA2kLhmqCS/s400/the+illustrated+poets.jpg" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5321298656100173890" /></a><br /><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;margin-left: 36.95pt; text-indent: -36.95pt; line-height: 20.65pt; background-image: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; -webkit-background-clip: initial; -webkit-background-origin: initial; background- color:white;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style=" font-weight: bold;font-size:48px;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;margin-left: 36.95pt; text-indent: -36.95pt; line-height: 20.65pt; background-image: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; -webkit-background-clip: initial; -webkit-background-origin: initial; background- color:white;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style=" font-weight: bold;font-size:48px;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;margin-left: 36.95pt; text-indent: -36.95pt; line-height: 20.65pt; background-image: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; -webkit-background-clip: initial; -webkit-background-origin: initial; background- color:white;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style=" font-weight: bold;font-size:48px;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;margin-left: 36.95pt; text-indent: -36.95pt; line-height: 20.65pt; background-image: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; -webkit-background-clip: initial; -webkit-background-origin: initial; background- color:white;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style=" font-weight: bold;font-size:48px;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;margin-left: 36.95pt; text-indent: -36.95pt; line-height: 20.65pt; background-image: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; -webkit-background-clip: initial; -webkit-background-origin: initial; background- color:white;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style=" font-weight: bold;font-size:48px;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;margin-left: 36.95pt; text-indent: -36.95pt; line-height: 20.65pt; background-image: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; -webkit-background-clip: initial; -webkit-background-origin: initial; background- color:white;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style=" font-weight: bold;font-size:48px;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;margin-left: 36.95pt; text-indent: -36.95pt; line-height: 20.65pt; background-image: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; -webkit-background-clip: initial; -webkit-background-origin: initial; background- color:white;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style=" font-weight: bold;font-size:48px;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;margin-left: 36.95pt; text-indent: -36.95pt; line-height: 20.65pt; background-image: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; -webkit-background-clip: initial; -webkit-background-origin: initial; background- color:white;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="letter-spacing:.2pt;mso-ansi-language:EN-USfont-size:11.5pt;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">DRINK AND THE DEVIL </span></span></b><b><span style=" letter-spacing:.2pt;font-size:11.5pt;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);"><o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;margin-left: 36.95pt; text-indent: -36.95pt; line-height: 20.65pt; background-image: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; -webkit-background-clip: initial; -webkit-background-origin: initial; background- color:white;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="letter-spacing:.3pt;mso-ansi-language:EN-USfont-size:11.5pt;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">To William Stewart</span></span></b><b><span style=" letter-spacing:.3pt;font-size:11.5pt;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);"><o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;margin-left: 36.95pt; text-indent: -36.95pt; line-height: 20.65pt; background-image: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; -webkit-background-clip: initial; -webkit-background-origin: initial; background- background-position: initial initial; color:white;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style=" font-weight: bold;font-size:15px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);"><br /></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;margin-left: 36.95pt; text-indent: -36.95pt; line-height: 20.65pt; background-image: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; -webkit-background-clip: initial; -webkit-background-origin: initial; background- background-position: initial initial; color:white;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);"><span class="Apple-style-span" style=" font-weight: bold;font-size:15px;"></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;margin-top: 9.35pt; line-height: 150%; background-image: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; -webkit-background-clip: initial; -webkit-background-origin: initial; background- background-position: initial initial; color:white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height:150%;letter-spacing: .15pt;mso-ansi-language:EN-USfont-size:12.0pt;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">In honest Bacon's ingle-neuk, </span></span><span style="line-height:150%;letter-spacing:.15ptfont-size:12.0pt;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;margin-top: 9.35pt; line-height: 150%; background-image: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; -webkit-background-clip: initial; -webkit-background-origin: initial; background- background-position: initial initial; color:white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height:150%;letter-spacing: .2pt;mso-ansi-language:EN-USfont-size:12.0pt;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">Here maun I sit and think; </span></span><span lang="EN-GB" style="line-height:150%;letter-spacing: .2pt;mso-ansi-language:EN-GBfont-size:12.0pt;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;margin-top: 9.35pt; line-height: 150%; background-image: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; -webkit-background-clip: initial; -webkit-background-origin: initial; background- background-position: initial initial; color:white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height:150%;letter-spacing: .1pt;mso-ansi-language:EN-USfont-size:12.0pt;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">Sick o' the warld and warld's fock, </span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height:150%;letter-spacing: .15pt;mso-ansi-language:EN-USfont-size:12.0pt;"></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;margin-top: 9.35pt; line-height: 150%; background-image: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; -webkit-background-clip: initial; -webkit-background-origin: initial; background- background-position: initial initial; color:white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height:150%;letter-spacing: .15pt;mso-ansi-language:EN-USfont-size:12.0pt;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">And sick, d-mn'd sick o' drink!</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;margin-top: 9.35pt; line-height: 150%; background-image: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; -webkit-background-clip: initial; -webkit-background-origin: initial; background- background-position: initial initial; color:white;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style=" line-height: 24px;font-size:16px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);"><br /></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;margin-top: 9.35pt; line-height: 150%; background-image: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; -webkit-background-clip: initial; -webkit-background-origin: initial; background- background-position: initial initial; color:white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height:150%;letter-spacing: .15pt;mso-ansi-language:EN-USfont-size:12.0pt;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">I see, I see there is nae help,</span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;line-height: 150%; background-image: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; -webkit-background-clip: initial; -webkit-background-origin: initial; background- background-position: initial initial; color:white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height:150%;letter-spacing: .1pt;mso-ansi-language:EN-USfont-size:12.0pt;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">But still down I maun sink; </span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;line-height: 150%; background-image: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; -webkit-background-clip: initial; -webkit-background-origin: initial; background- background-position: initial initial; color:white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height:150%;letter-spacing: -.1pt;mso-ansi-language:EN-USfont-size:12.0pt;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">Till some day, </span><i><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">laigh enough, </span></i><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">I yelp, </span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;line-height: 150%; background-image: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; -webkit-background-clip: initial; -webkit-background-origin: initial; background- background-position: initial initial; color:white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height:150%;letter-spacing: -.1pt;mso-ansi-language:EN-USfont-size:12.0pt;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);"> 'Wae worth that cursed drink!'</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align:justify;line-height:150%;background:white"><span class="Apple-style-span" style=" line-height: 24px;font-size:16px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);"><br /></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;margin-top: 12.7pt; line-height: 150%; background-image: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; -webkit-background-clip: initial; -webkit-background-origin: initial; background- background-position: initial initial; color:white;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 150%;mso-ansi-language:EN-USfont-size:12.0pt;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);"> Yestreen, alas! I was sae fu', </span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top:12.7pt;text-align:justify;line-height: 150%;background:white"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 150%;letter-spacing:.1pt;mso-ansi-language:EN-USfont-size:12.0pt;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);"> I could but yisk and wink;</span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align:justify;line-height:150%;background:white"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height:150%;letter-spacing: .05pt;mso-ansi-language:EN-USfont-size:12.0pt;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);"> And now, this day, sair, sair I rue, </span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align:justify;line-height:150%;background:white"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height:150%;letter-spacing: .25pt;mso-ansi-language:EN-USfont-size:12.0pt;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);"> The weary, weary drink. -</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align:justify;line-height:150%;background:white"><span class="Apple-style-span" style=" line-height: 24px;font-size:16px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);"><br /></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align:justify;line-height:150%;background:white"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height:150%;letter-spacing: .25pt;mso-ansi-language:EN-USfont-size:12.0pt;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">Satan, I fear thy sooty claws,</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align:justify;line-height:150%;background:white"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height:150%;letter-spacing: .25pt;mso-ansi-language:EN-USfont-size:12.0pt;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">I hate thy brunstane stink,</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align:justify;line-height:150%;background:white"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height:150%;letter-spacing: .25pt;mso-ansi-language:EN-USfont-size:12.0pt;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">And ay I curse the luckless cause, </span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align:justify;line-height:150%;background:white"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height:150%;letter-spacing: .25pt;mso-ansi-language:EN-USfont-size:12.0pt;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">The wicked soup o' drink. —</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align:justify;line-height:150%;background:white"><span class="Apple-style-span" style=" line-height: 24px;font-size:16px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);"><br /></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align:justify;line-height:150%;background:white"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height:150%;letter-spacing: .25pt;mso-ansi-language:EN-USfont-size:12.0pt;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">In vain I would forget my woes</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align:justify;line-height:150%;background:white"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height:150%;letter-spacing: .25pt;mso-ansi-language:EN-USfont-size:12.0pt;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">In idle rhyming clink,</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align:justify;line-height:150%;background:white"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height:150%;letter-spacing: .25pt;mso-ansi-language:EN-USfont-size:12.0pt;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">For past redemption d-mn'd in Prose</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align:justify;line-height:150%;background:white"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height:150%;letter-spacing: .25pt;mso-ansi-language:EN-USfont-size:12.0pt;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">I can do nought but drink. -</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align:justify;line-height:150%;background:white"><span class="Apple-style-span" style=" line-height: 24px;font-size:16px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);"><br /></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align:justify;line-height:150%;background:white"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height:150%;letter-spacing: .25pt;mso-ansi-language:EN-USfont-size:12.0pt;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">For you, my trusty, well-try'd friend, </span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align:justify;line-height:150%;background:white"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height:150%;letter-spacing: .25pt;mso-ansi-language:EN-USfont-size:12.0pt;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">May Heaven still on you blink;</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align:justify;line-height:150%;background:white"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height:150%;letter-spacing: .25pt;mso-ansi-language:EN-USfont-size:12.0pt;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">And may your life flow to the end, </span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align:justify;line-height:150%;background:white"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height:150%;letter-spacing: .25pt;mso-ansi-language:EN-USfont-size:12.0pt;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">Sweet as a dry man's drink!</span></span></p><p></p>Tryphon Odinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14604221868631978100noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8590005207364634932.post-11929154406371175952009-03-08T16:42:00.011+02:002009-03-08T17:44:58.345+02:00<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJTPht79WG37t3cPC8cBtYOfaR2LfDEznXT6gNWxgReoK721Q79JmmjyuFsEnfWZM5azSavUwjN6ViaNyfovvX5U86mrCBYNAKmQj9XHtPv7mTh8djJiYXddsJpuaymENFsn7ai_GvRW8n/s1600-h/img004.jpg"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 291px; height: 400px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJTPht79WG37t3cPC8cBtYOfaR2LfDEznXT6gNWxgReoK721Q79JmmjyuFsEnfWZM5azSavUwjN6ViaNyfovvX5U86mrCBYNAKmQj9XHtPv7mTh8djJiYXddsJpuaymENFsn7ai_GvRW8n/s400/img004.jpg" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5310840766111835202" /></a><br /><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-weight: bold;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:large;">ΠΕΡΙ</span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-weight: bold;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:large;"> </span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-weight: bold;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:large;">ΤΗΣ</span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-weight: bold;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:large;"> </span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-weight: bold;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:large;">ΤΣΑΚΩΝΙΚΗΣ</span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-weight: bold;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:large;"> </span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-weight: bold;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:large;">ΦΥΛΗΣ</span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-weight: bold;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:large;"> </span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-weight: bold;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:large;">ΟΛΙΓΑ</span></span><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:large;">Ότι η </span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:large;">Τσακωνική</span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:large;"> φυλή είναι αρχαιότατης καταγωγής, δεν υπάρχει </span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:large;">καμμία</span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:large;"> αμφιβολία περί τούτου. Τρανή απόδειξη αυτού, η </span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:large;">Τσακωνική</span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:large;"> διάλεκτος. Η </span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:large;">Τσακωνική</span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:large;"> </span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:large;">αριδήλος</span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:large;"> και </span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:large;">περιτράνως</span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:large;">, αποδεικνύεται αρχαία Δωρική, μία παραφθορά της διαλέκτου των αρχαίων Σπαρτιατών. Είναι επίσης συγγενική της και της Ομηρικής Διαλέκτου, και της Ιωνικής ως εκ τούτου.</span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:large;">Είναι τόση η σπουδαιότητα της </span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:large;">Τσακωνικής</span></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:large;"> διαλέκτου, που ακόμα κι ο ανθέλλην Φαμεράυερ, που υποστήριζε ότι οι νεώτεροι Έλληνες έχουν Σλάβικη καταγωγή, θεώρούσε την Τσακωνική Διάλεκτο ως μόνη γνήσια ελληνική και άμεσα συνδεόμενη με την διάλεκτο των αρχαίων Σπαρτιατών</span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:large;">(το συγκεκριμένο απόσπασμα αποτελεί εισαγωγικό σημείωμα του Μιχαήλ Λέκου, εκ Λεωνιδείου-πολύ σωστά-ορμώμενου Φιλολόγου από το βιβλίο του "Περί Τσακώνων και της Τσακωνικής Διαλέκτου", γραμμένο στα 1920) </span></span></div>Tryphon Odinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14604221868631978100noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8590005207364634932.post-54722835916615692009-02-14T20:28:00.003+02:002009-02-14T21:15:16.444+02:00REALITY & COMPLEXITY (πραγματικότητα και πολυπλοκότητα)<div><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Η σύγχρονη Οικονομική Ψυχολογία προσανατολίζεται σε αυτά τα δύο χαρακτηριστικά. Την Πραγματικότητα και την Πολυπλοκότητα. Όσο θα περνούν τα χρόνια τόσο πιο πολύπλοκα θα γίνονται τα υποδείγματα, αλλά άλλο τόσο πιο κοντά στην πραγματικότητα θα είναι. </div><div style="text-align: justify;">Όλα αυτά βέβαια τα χρωστάμε στο βιβλίο των <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_3">W.F.</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_4">van</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_5">Raaij</span>, <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_6">G.M.</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_7">van</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_8">Veldhoven</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_9">and</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_10">K.</span>-<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_11">E.</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_12">Warneryd</span>, με το έργο τους "<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_13">The</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_14">Handbook</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_15">of</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_16">Economic</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_17">Psychology</span>" του 1988. Τα δεκαοχτώ του κεφάλαια, χωρίζονται σε τέσσερα μέρη, όπου ζητείται από τον αναγνώστη να σκεφτεί το θεωρητικό υπόβαθρο της Οικονομικής Ψυχολογίας, οικιακή οικονομική συμπεριφορά, επιχειρηματική συμπεριφορά και εν <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_18">κατακλείδει</span> οι κοινωνικές προοπτικές της. Μερικά από τα κεφάλαια είναι πραγματικά μικρά, αλλά όλα εξυπηρετούν στο να παράσχουν κριτική και <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_19">αναστοχασμό</span> τόσο στον χώρο του <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_20">Marketing</span>, όσο και στον χώρο της Ψυχολογίας που ενδιαφέρεται για τα οικονομικά προβλήματα.</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Τα πρώτα έξι κεφάλαια μπορούν να θεωρηθούν μία αυτοτελή ενότητα. Αυτά συνθέτουν μια γενική εισαγωγή στην Οικονομική Ψυχολογία, από τον <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_21">Warneryd</span> και τα εστιάζονται στις επιρροές των κινήτρων, των αξιών και των ορμών, στην επεξεργασία πληροφοριών, στην λήψη αποφάσεων και στα γνωστικά σχήματα, η επίδραση του συναισθήματος στην λήψη αποφάσεων και στις διάφορες κοινωνικές επιδράσεις. Ένας ψυχολόγος διαβάζοντας το κείμενο ίσως αναρωτηθεί αρκετά για τι υπάρχει στην Οικονομική Ψυχολογία που είναι καινούργιο. Αυτό ακριβώς είναι το πρόβλημα. Αυτό που κάνει την Οικονομική Ψυχολογία ενδιαφέρουσα είναι τα επιχειρήματα και οι διαφορετικές ερμηνείες τόσο των οικονομολόγων, όσο και των ψυχολόγων.</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Το δεύτερο μέρος αποτελείται από τρία κεφάλαια.<br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><ul><li>την λήψη αποφάσεων στην οικιακή οικονομία</li><li>την καταναλωτική συμπεριφορά και η προώθηση προϊόντων στην αγορά από τις εταιρείες</li><li>τα υποδείγματα καταναλωτικής συμπεριφοράς<br /></li></ul>Το τρίτο μέρος έχει σαν κύρια θεματική</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><ul><li>την βιομηχανική οργάνωση</li><li>την επιχειρηματικότητα</li><li>τις διαπραγματεύσεις</li></ul>Το τελευταίο μέρος διαπραγματεύεται πιο κοινωνικές προοπτικές, θέλοντας να παραδώσει τροφή για σκέψη στον αναγνώστη, αναφέροντας κριτικές που έχουν κατά καιρούς γίνει τόσο για τα συναισθήματα του καταναλωτή,όσο και για τις προσδοκίες του.</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Βέβαια ένα εγχειρίδιο -"<span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_22">The</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_23">Handbook</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_24">of</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_25">Economic</span> <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_26">Psychology</span>"- είναι σαν ένα λεξικό ή μία εγκυκλοπαίδεια, δεν διαβάζεις "μονοκοπανιά" τις 683 σελίδες του. Οικονομολόγοι και άλλοι βέβαια έχουν το δικαίωμα να ρωτήσουν αν όλο αυτό στοχεύει σε μία "απερίσκεπτη εμπειρική μελέτη", που ξεκινά με άλλα λόγια η έρευνα της Οικονομικής Ψυχολογίας.</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Πρέπει να υποστηρίξουμε τους εκδότες του πονήματος αυτού, για την πρωτοποριακή εργασία τους και για την μετάδοση του συναισθήματος της συνεργασίας ανάμεσα στις επιστήμες της οικονομίας και της ψυχολογίας.<br /><br /></div>Tryphon Odinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14604221868631978100noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8590005207364634932.post-60582409833110562462009-01-15T15:06:00.004+02:002009-01-15T23:41:32.352+02:00<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiT_nd6q5NH96xHCy3gzcfFN5M48vut7HjcOFWHR6sTCX-NUYPehMlfGQ4nix6jBtAB9ntMr3nNkeRTb-Hz3jzAI0FQaF7FSEca8XSNo8YrY9jTSmYGH5vYykaOhycMqRpH3R35mnhMJssU/s1600-h/platocave.jpg"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 300px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiT_nd6q5NH96xHCy3gzcfFN5M48vut7HjcOFWHR6sTCX-NUYPehMlfGQ4nix6jBtAB9ntMr3nNkeRTb-Hz3jzAI0FQaF7FSEca8XSNo8YrY9jTSmYGH5vYykaOhycMqRpH3R35mnhMJssU/s400/platocave.jpg" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5291516996132456434" /></a><br /><span style="font-family:"Palatino Linotype"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-bidi-Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language:EL;mso-fareast-language:EL;mso-bidi-language:AR-SAfont-family:";font-size:12.0pt;"><div>ΠΕΡΙ ΤΗΣ ΑΥΤΟΝΟΜΙΑΣ ΤΗΣ ΑΝΘΡΩΠΙΝΗΣ ΑΙΣΘΑΝΤΙΚΟΤΗΤΑΣ</div>«Νόησον τοίνην, ἦν δ’ἐγώ, ὥσπερ λέγομεν…»</span><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'Palatino Linotype';"><br /></span></div><div><span style=" ;font-size:12pt;"></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'Palatino Linotype';"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="Palatino Linotype"font-family:";"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:large;">Ἑξίσταται ο Σιμμίας καὶ τὰδε λέγει στον τηλαυγή Σωκράτη…</span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:large;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="Palatino Linotype"font-family:";"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:large;">«Ὦ Σώκρατες, ἐάν ἠ λύρα σπάσῃ, ἡ ἁρμονία ἐξαφανίζεται ἐάν τὸ δέμας χαλασθῇ, μὴπως ἡ ψυχή ἀφανίζεται;» (Φαίδρος 84</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="Palatino Linotype"; mso-ansi-language:EN-USfont-family:";"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:large;">c</span></span><span style="Palatino Linotype"font-family:";"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:large;">- 86</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="Palatino Linotype";mso-ansi-language: EN-USfont-family:";"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:large;">d</span></span><span style="Palatino Linotype"font-family:";"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:large;">4)</span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:large;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="Palatino Linotype"font-family:";"><o:p><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:large;"> </span></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="Palatino Linotype"font-family:";"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:large;">Ὦ τᾶν, φιλαναγνώστη μην απελπίζεσαι.</span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:large;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="Palatino Linotype"font-family:";"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:large;">Τι κι αν το ερώτημα δεν απαντηθεί ποτέ;</span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:large;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="Palatino Linotype"font-family:";"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:large;">Εν αρχή όλα ήταν «φίρδην-μίγδην»στο μυαλό μου…</span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:large;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="Palatino Linotype"font-family:";"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:large;">Μην νομίζεις ότι το ερώτημα αυτό έχει αξία ως περιεχόμενο και σε παρασύρει στα θεοσκότεινα μονοπάτια της «δαιδαλέης»σκέψης του Σωκράτους.</span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:large;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="Palatino Linotype"font-family:";"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:large;">Έτσι κι αλλιώς εάν το σώμα χαλασθῇ ποιος νοιάζεται τι γίνεται μετά;</span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:large;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="Palatino Linotype"font-family:";"><o:p><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:large;"> </span></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="Palatino Linotype"font-family:";"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:large;">Μπεάτοι όμως της μη συμμορφώσεως οι Αγίοι όπως συμφωνεί και ο Άγγελος Σικελιανός.</span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:large;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="Palatino Linotype"font-family:";"><o:p><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:large;"> </span></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="Palatino Linotype"font-family:";"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:large;">Το ζήτημα είναι η πάνσοφη εγρήγορση-το ίδιο το Ἑξίσταται όσο κι αν σήμερα δεν χρησιμοποιείται.</span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:large;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="Palatino Linotype"font-family:";"><o:p><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:large;"> </span></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="Palatino Linotype"font-family:";"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:large;">Η ίδια η αντίδραση σε κάθε τι που λέγεται ή πιστεύεται ακόμα κι αν εκστομίζεται από τον ίδιο τον σωκρατικό θεό.</span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:large;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="Palatino Linotype"font-family:";"><o:p><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:large;"> </span></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="Palatino Linotype"font-family:";"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:large;">Πάνυ μὲν οὖν, τοῦτο γε οἶδα.</span><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="Section1"> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:8.6pt; margin-left:139.6pt;background:white"><span style=" letter-spacing:-.1pt;font-size:10.5pt;color:black;">ΗΛΙΟΥ ΦΩΣ</span></p></div> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span><span style="font-size:1.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p></span><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:'Palatino Linotype';"><br /></span></div></div>Tryphon Odinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14604221868631978100noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8590005207364634932.post-78512118642596742932008-12-04T15:45:00.001+02:002008-12-04T15:48:10.789+02:00<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgd6T0bm_z-cUAbKS6Wbu9EddK0oKUFVIXwOwVsKT6iV9e_Timkq6cVgJXFoYAxbjsJRK2khCyvpIcky-6GYJJE6l3zMwLVVesuEtjc4HnIF1Elxr7bKcQoUhXCOk4Fq_FMNpU_sEarSvWh/s1600-h/img001.jpg"><blockquote></blockquote><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 301px; height: 400px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgd6T0bm_z-cUAbKS6Wbu9EddK0oKUFVIXwOwVsKT6iV9e_Timkq6cVgJXFoYAxbjsJRK2khCyvpIcky-6GYJJE6l3zMwLVVesuEtjc4HnIF1Elxr7bKcQoUhXCOk4Fq_FMNpU_sEarSvWh/s400/img001.jpg" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5275930898653233986" /></a><blockquote></blockquote>"Το οικογενειακό δέντρο που χάνεται στα βάθη των αρχών του περασμένου αιώνα"Tryphon Odinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14604221868631978100noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8590005207364634932.post-38401938049931547202008-09-12T08:17:00.010+03:002008-09-12T09:48:24.728+03:00Πώς συνδέεται ο μικρόκοσμος με τον μακρόκοσμο;<div style="text-align: justify;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-weight: bold; ">Βρισκόμαστε τις τελευταίες μέρες μπροστά στο μεγαλύτερο πείραμα για τον 21ο αιώνα. Το πείραμα του CERN με τον τεράστιο επιταχυντή αδρονίων, που προσπαθεί να προσομοιάσει στις συνθήκες που επικρατούσαν στο σύμπαν τις πρώτες στιγμές μετά την μεγάλη έκρηξη.</span><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-weight: bold;">Δυστυχώς οι ανθρώπινες αισθήσεις, από κατασκευής τους, είναι τέτοιες που δεν μπορούμε να αντιληφθούμε μέσω αυτών καταστάσεις και νόμους που διέπουν το σύμπαν. Γι΄ αυτόν ακριβώς τον λόγο χρησιμοποιούμε την γλώσσα των μαθηματικών, που προσπαθεί να περιγράψει κάθε φορά αυτό που βλέπει, χωρίς να φορά γυαλιά με χρωματιστούς φακούς.</span></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-weight: bold;">Συνειδητοποιούμε όλοι μας, πως ό,τι μάθαμε στα σχολικά μας χρόνια, ήταν η μία όψη περιγραφής του κόσμου. Για παράδειγμα ότι οι διαστάσεις του χώρου πάνω στη Γη είναι τρεις (ΜxΠxΥ), αλλά στο σύμπαν έντεκα! Και ότι ακόμα οι διαστάσεις αυτές είναι ακέραιοι αριθμοί (π.χ. το εμβαδόν μίας επιφάνειας δίνεται από τον τύπο μήκος επί πλάτος), δεν υπάρχει με άλλα λόγια 1,5 διάσταση. Με την Ευκλείδεια Γεωμετρία και τις ανακαλύψεις της αστροφυσικής και της κοσμολογίας, είναι σαν να προσπαθείς με παλιούς drivers σε μία κάρτα γραφικών να παίξεις σύγχρονα παιχνίδια. Η γεωμετρία που μέχρι τότε την χρησιμοποιούσαμε ήταν αδύνατον να ερμηνεύσει και να υπολογίσει, αυτό για το οποίο είναι προορισμένη. Έτσι περάσαμε σε άλλων ειδών γεωμετρίες, όπως fractal geometry (μορφοκλασματική γεωμετρία) ή Riemannian Geometry (γεωμετρία του Riemann), με τις οποίες μπορούμε να υπολογίζουμε ποσότητες με μεγαλύτερη ακρίβεια, στο σύμπαν.</span></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-weight: bold;">Ακόμα και οι εμφανίσεις της ύλης έχουν ξεπεραστεί. Παλαιότερα γνωρίζαμε ότι η ύλη στον κόσμο εμφανίζεται είτε με αέρια, είτε με υγρή, είτε με στέρεη μορφή. Σήμερα όμως, που κι αυτές οι μορφές δεν αρκούν να ερμηνεύσουν κάτι τόσο έξω από εμάς όπως το Σύμπαν, τις έχουμε εγκαταλείψει και οι φυσικοί και μαθηματικοί μιλούν για υπεριονισμένη ύλη (πλάσμα), για ελλείπουσα αόρατη μάζα (συμπύκνωμα Bose- Einstein) <span class="Apple-style-span" style=" line-height: 19px; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style=""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">και τέλος για την γνωστή σε πολλούς ανθρώπους υποθετική μορφή ύλης την σκοτεινή ύλη (dark matter).</span></span></span></span></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-weight: bold; line-height: 19px;">Το ίδιο πράγμα συμβαίνει και με τις επιστήμες τις συμπεριφοράς, που προσπαθούν να ερμηνεύσουν την συμπεριφορά του σύγχρονου ανθρώπου, όσον αφορά σε σχέση με τους άλλους, αλλά και σε σχέση με το τι πιστεύει για τον ίδιο του τον εαυτό. Σαν το ανθρώπινο μάτι, όπως είχε πει κι ο Σωκράτης σε ένα διάλογο του Πλάτωνα, που αρχικά βλέπει γύρω του και μετά κοιτά μέσα του (ενδοσκόπηση). Δυστυχώς οι επιστήμες της συμπεριφοράς δεν έχουν, ακόμα, την δυνατότητα να ερμηνεύουν σύνθετες συμπεριφορές που προέρχονται από πολλούς παράγοντες. Σαν την γεωμετρία του Ευκλείδη, που αδυνατούσε να υπολογίσει κυρτές επιφάνειες. Βέβαια οι επιστήμες της συμπεριφοράς είναι και σχετικά νέες στο προσκήνιο των επιστημών, εκτός της φιλοσοφίας και έχουν πολύ δρόμο μπροστά τους.</span></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-weight: bold; line-height: 19px;">Πειράματα όπως αυτό που λαμβάνει χώρα στο CERN, εκτός από την αδιαμφισβήτητη συμβολή τους στον χώρο της Φυσικής, Κοσμολογίας και σε άλλα, πιστεύω ακράδαντα ότι θα συμβάλλει έμμεσως και τις επιστήμες της συμπεριφοράς.</span></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-weight: bold; line-height: 19px;">Ο άνθρωπος, σαν το μάτι που πρώτα κοιτάει έξω, συνειδητοποίησε το μεγαλείο και την απεραντοσύνη του Σύμπαντος κοιτώντας και μελετώντας τα άστρα, και κατόπιν κοίταξε μέσα του και αντιλήφθηκε πως και αυτός είναι φτιαγμένος με το ίδια υλικά όπως τα άστρα που βρίσκονται παντού μες στο Σύμπαν, και ως παιδί των άστρων επιζητεί να επιστρέψει πάλι εκεί.</span></div>Tryphon Odinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14604221868631978100noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8590005207364634932.post-37589289584363321692008-09-11T17:44:00.002+03:002008-09-11T18:15:56.454+03:00BLOG-MANIFEST<div style="text-align: justify;"> Σκοπός του εν λόγω blog είναι περισσότερο να διαφωτίζει και να ολοκληρώνει την ανθρώπινη σκέψη, μακριά από διεργασιακά λάθη και προκαταλήψεις, σε μία εποχή όπου δυστυχώς αν και οι πληροφορίες είναι πολλές και η διάδοση τους γρήγορη, οι ανθρώπινες σχέσεις είναι κι αυτές πολλές και γρήγορες και ρηχές.<br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"> Πώς σχετίζονται πλέον οι άνθρωποι; Πόσο ευχαριστημένοι είμαστε από την εργασία μας; Γιατί οι ανθρώπινες σχέσεις έχουν βρεθεί στο επίκεντρο όλων των ανθρωπιστικών επιστημών; Ποια η σχέση των διαφόρων τομέων της επιστήμης με τον άνθρωπο;</div><div style="text-align: justify;"> Ποια η σχέση της φιλοσοφίας και εν γένη της τέχνης και της επιστήμης με τον σημερινό άνθρωπο; Αυτά και πολλά άλλα συναφή προβλήματα επιθυμει ο blogger αυτή της γωνιάς του διαδικτύου να παρουσιάσει.</div>Tryphon Odinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14604221868631978100noreply@blogger.com1